Eujunga

Not a single drop of rain down here in Mexico despite a categorical "rain" forecast by the NWS. Still a balmy 67º after a high of 77º. No rug-pull or bust comments from me, though, until at least tomorrow morning.

Looking at the NWS obs map, I'm seeing stations with temps in the 60s at 6,000 ft. elevation. Dipped briefly to 58º here but was in the 60s for most of the night.

Yes, 12z NBM looks a lot wetter than 12z GFS.

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It's the artist formerly known as Thunder98 from the CA forum. This is the first post in 7 hours on this forum. I guess normal Fall weather isn't as exciting as heat waves and arctic outbreaks.

GFS operational for the end of the month went from being a wet outlier to a dry one. Still decent ensemble agreement for a cool spell with some showers. What saith the Euro?

Well, to be fair, the event did kind of bust for Willamette Valley Oregonians in areas other than Portland or Eugene. Corvallis didn't even get an inch. I'm ecstatic about my storm total of 2.25", and will wear a weenie dunce cap and sit in the corner for an hour as my penance for being one of the weenies who was convinced that the storm would bust here.

Just had a good bright flash followed by thunder ~3 seconds later, so closer than a mile. TWL, hope you're paying attention. Should be headed your direction.

More moderate to heavy rain here with a couple of distant thunder rumbles. Up to 1.65" on the day. I take back all the mean things I said about rug pulls and storms under-performing.

Heavy shower with a max rain rate of 4.92 in/hr. Knocked my internet out momentarily. Daily total up to 1.21", making it the wettest day here since 2/24/19 (which was mostly snow).

Which would technically still be a bust, considering most forecasts right up to the event were showing 1.5"-2".

Woke at 6 a.m. to light rain, an overnight accumulation of 0.71", and a giant sucking sound as the vegetation slurps up the desperately-needed moisture. Radar and satellite both look good for more light rain before this round is done. Not exactly an epic score, but not a rug-pull by any means.

They're pretty rare all right. Out of all the rain or snow events last winter, I think 2 over-performed here compared to guidance. The rest under-performed, often dramatically so.

There's still time for a last-minute rug pull!

The dry wind is dislodging all the dead fir needles and dumping them into my gutters that I just cleaned out