primetime

Worst kind of road setup IMO is where temperatures have been above freezing, then they fall into the mid 20's or lower...snow falls at a good clip and partially melts on the roads, then over a short period of time, freezes hard....no one can drive on snow that has partially melted and refrozen into a hard, icy crust.

http://i66.tinypic.com/286zpyw.gif

Euro Ensemble 5 day avg for days 10-15.  For a 5 day average, this is a strong signal for the big Bering Sea ridge

http://i64.tinypic.com/2mg5nx2.gif

Days 9-10 on Euro looks like a money setup for lowland snow, right?  Not my area

A bunch of the analogs they're using don't make sense to me.

 

I see a bunch of moderate to strong Niños, and even a greater quantity of -QBOs.

Check that Phil.  The years on the analog maps are for the end of winter (Jan-Feb), not Dec....so, their years look to be mostly cool ENSO.

Wow, just wait until this propagates poleward Some major s**t about to go down through the next 7+ weeks.image.jpeg

-NAM and STJ increase??

It's currently colder in Tallahassee, Florida (35) than at Camp Muir at 10,000 feet on Mt. Rainier (36.)

 

Heading for the mid 20's tonight in Tallahassee too.

They had ocean effect snow flurries in Jacksonville, FL today

Excellent post newbigmack.  You do a good job of presenting your thoughts in a well thought out and organized manner.  Keep up the good work.  It's a shame that posts like this garner less attention than the run of the mill post on the 300 hour GFS.

The questions I would have are.....was there something during the fall that would have given us a clue that the walker cell behavior was going to be more nina-like for Dec?  And do we expect it to remain nina-like through the winter?

Phil - do you have any new thoughts (big picture) as we go into the heart of winter?

Thanks for letting us know!

No problem.  I'd personally like to see it dump east of the Rockies given my location, but the Euro Ensemble is wanting to focus the cold moreso in the western and central states.  GFS Ensemble has it farther east...but hard to go against the Euro Ens in a model war.

12z Euro Ensemble looks cold for you all in the 10-15 day range.  Big ridge running up through Alaska with cold dumping into the western and central U.S.

http://monitor.cicsnc.org/mjo/current/rmm/

 

Scroll down to "RMM by variable"

Appreciate it...thanks

The 3 contributors which make up the RMM index's aren't lined up currently = Muddled MJO signal. Notice the upper level winds (u200) which still has a great handle on the current MJO wave. OLR signal dies easily, but upper level winds remain

bigmack - Is there a site where we can see these images updated, or is this a one time image?  Thanks

Phil - thanks for the updates in here.

Uh oh..moving into a -AO/-EPO/-NAO even before we obliterate the PV in early Jan?

 

Tropical forcing should progress sufficiently to drop the PNA in January..only then we'll be in the middle of a SSW/-TAM and the wave train will be longer..

 

This entire block should consolidate N/NW and strengthen in January, IMO..

Phil - when you say tropical forcing, just wondering what this is based on...MJO, CCKW, VP Anomaly progression?  What are you looking at to know the tropical progression?

Thanks Phil for the detailed reply regarding what you see going forward.  Keep us posted!

December looks like a typical Niño w/ warmth centered in the Northern Plains/Midwest

Just read back through the full thread.  Looks like you've done very well so far...way back in Oct you called for the north Pac troughing and central US focused Nino warmth for early-mid Dec that we are seeing on the model ensembles.

Any thoughts or concerns regarding the pattern transition for late Dec?

Don't see any reason to make changes, except slight tweaks in timing:

 

December 1st to December 15th: Looks like a -EPF/-AMMI as tropical forcing progresses..generally +EPO/+NAO leading to a somewhat classic Niño signature over the U.S. with warmth centered over the Midwest.

 

December 15th to January 5th: Dynamically, should be the most exciting part of the winter season...tropical forcing boon in the WPAC will start another breaker train as a +EPF develops..major SSW/TAM collapse occurs between December 25 -January 5. Major cold over the lower-48...possibly a coast to coast icebox.

Thanks for the updates Phil.  Always enjoy reading your upcoming pattern thoughts.  Solar Flux has been elevated of late....any concerns there?

In that table, what does RMM1 and RMM2 signify?

It goes with how the MJO is plotted as seen here (RMM1 on the bottom, and RMM2 on the left)

http://i.imgur.com/LTogEbL.gif

This goes back to 1974 - http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/rmm.74toRealtime.txt

.. Is a bit annoying 

 

So will you be posting beginning, interim and end states representations of the different main elements that you've pointed to, for comparison with what you've forecasted. ?

 

— Perhaps pointing to some of your reasoning attached to these ideas otherwise. ?

Phil takes the time to do the research and post his ideas about the upcoming winter, yet you complain that it's not written to your liking.  What motivation does he have to answer any of your questions when all he ever gets from you is badgering?

Nice write-up Phil.  I was wondering if you have any early ideas about ENSO for the '15-'16 winter (just wondering since you called this current weak nino state some 12-18 months ago).

Phil - wanted to see if you could share any ideas on where with are with the MJO and AAM.  Looks to me like we are coming up on a period where the MJO is going to be more favorable for westerly anomalies (velocity potential / OLR)....but I'm not sure

We have seen this before in 1917/18 when a warm pool was established firmly for 2 consecutive years and this time is no different.

Tom - was curious if you could share where you get this data from...i.e. the warm pool in the N Pac for 1917-1918.  Is that from some type of re-analysis?

I don't know, maybe my statements don't make sense....I suppose it's possible to have a modoki el nino while not having an official El Nino in the Nino 3.4 region via ONI and/or MEI.  We know of the sea surface anomaly pattern associated with El Nino Modoki, but I don't know that there is an official index that dictates whether one has actually occurred or not...although JAMSTEC does have an index for it.  At any rate, I don't see any evidence suggesting that we would transition to a modoki el nino with the max warm anomalies in the central Pacific, flanked by cool anomalies in the eastern Pacific and western Pacific...but we'll see.

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/enmodoki_home_s.html.en

the chances of an el nino this year continues to go down hill so that means we will not have an el nino this yearand a modiki el nino will be in the cards for this up coming winter season.

1. If the 'chances' of el nino are going down hill, how can it be said definitively that 'we will not have an el nino'.  That statement doesn't make sense.

2. If there is no el nino, how can you have a modoki el nino?  That statement doesn't make sense.