primetime

1977 and 2014 were similar with the cold, but for different reasons. 1977 had the big -AO/-NAO. 2014 had the big +EPO ridge through Alaska into the Arctic. 2014 winter in Green Bay had the highest number of days below zero, ever. http://i.imgur.com/OFXFTVI.png http://i.imgur.com/Et1eD4V.png

I think it just shows that we have a long way to go with ENSO forecasting. There were some highly respected mets thinking that we would be looking at a strong nino this year. My opinion now is that we are looking at neutral or weak nino...could go either way. As Phil mentioned, the sea surface temperatures may make a late push as we head through fall...but it remains to be seen.

So we already know that El Nino is a no show for next year?? Some purty good forecasters I'd say

On second thought, +AAM does match the rest of your text (Nino like)...I had that wrong

Phil - I believe you meant to say -AAM in that middle paragraph (bolded) based on the rest of your text...but correct me if wrong.

If el nino is a no show, you can't have a modoki el nino....can't have it both ways

Just my opinion, but I don't see any way we reach the Nino strength of 09-10 which was borderline moderate/strong. Quite frankly, this Nino is on life support right now. Upper ocean heat content has fallen off a cliff like the yodeler on The Price is Right. Model consensus is going with a weak Nino, but I just wonder if they won't begin to fall over the next 2 months.

There are a couple of flaws in that write up. The write up mentions that the Cohen SAI Index measures Oct snow advance 'north' of 60N in Eurasia. As stated in the Cohen paper, it should be 'south' or 'equatorward' of 60N. In spite of that, the model he shows does indicate above normal precip south of 60N. Secondly, he states that the SAI did not perform well last winter, which is not true. The SAI correlation is used to predict the AO, not how cold it will be in a given location. Last October, the SAI indicated that the wintertime AO would be positive, which it was...particularly if you include the month of March, which Cohen has been including in the correlation in more recent years (his initial paper linked above for the SAI used the Dec-Feb period for the correlation).

So, let me get this straight...you constantly attack one of the posters who offers the most to this forum (Phil)...meanwhile you give us constant ramblings of wording that resembles some sort of foreign language...odd, just odd

wow, this nino is on life support. Good calls in here by snow wizard, who first expressed doubts about its development. Looks like we are teetering on warm neutral / weak nino at the moment. To me, the wind anomalies are more important than the fading upper oceanic heat content. Anyone have any ideas on where we go between now and fall with the wind anomalies? Wouldn't the transition into the -QBO favor more westerly anomalies and El Nino?

Several of the non-phase space MJO forecasts continue to show the MJO moving out into the Pacific, like this one... http://i.imgur.com/Tf71ixd.gif

MJO has moved into phase 5... http://i.imgur.com/f7Aq4LP.gif

Chart here supports the idea of the MJO becoming active and moving out into the western Pacific toward the last part of June...but we'll see http://i.imgur.com/Fsu40x9.gif

Phil - I'm familiar with what the Walker Cell is, but what parameter(s) do you use to visualize where it is located? Omega? OLR? 200mb wind direction?

No one makes all the right calls, but Phil deserves kudos for calling for this Nino from 2 years back. I can say with certainty that he made that call, and I haven't seen anyone else make such a call with that amount of lead time. I welcome and enjoy the thoughts from Phil and others on the developing Nino.

Thought this was an excellent write-up on the MJO and it's impact over the next month or so... http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/sub-seasonal-u-s-temperature-outlook-bitter-cold-weather-is-anticipated-to-continue-through-the-end-of-february/