richard mann

(.. cross-reference.) http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1770-spring-2018-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=335904

(.. cross-reference.) http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1770-spring-2018-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=335904

- .. At this point main colder air mass—that looked at more fully through and across the greater Northern hemisphere—is near to having reached its full expansion, or movement and spread, more southward, i. e. out and down from its main higher latitude source both regions and areas and into the mid-latitudes. And with this idea, should begin to regress (or recoil) back more northward beginning in a few days, on or near to the 7th of April. This, while also at about this same time main colder air mass as a whole begins to move more assertively eastward for about a week or so. — Of note here, this will be my last set of colder air mass projections—broader main cold's both latitudinal and longitudinal potential—until near to, if likely before, the beginning of Fall. No "Numerical Wx-forecast Models" have been consulted where considering the generation of the broader outlook included above as part of this post. Further, the more-abstract ideas represented above, are theoretical in nature, only. And so, as such, have been submitted here, only as conjecture — certainly open to discussion.

.. Actually I had, in its more original form. (It appears to have been updated since I had leastwise.) — In its present form, I'm gathering some of what the main ideas are all about. I appear to have achieved my "ranking", pretty much purely as the result of my once more numerous posts submitted.

- hey.. "Marine Layer". ... Interesting certainly, that you've begun my projections thread for Spring for me here. Hope that you're gathering some insights from what I've submitted. Regarding what you've said here above a bit more specifically, first, I must confess I don't really know what the "Weather Forums March Madness" thing, is. Perhaps you could help me to know better, more exactly. Beyond this, and if I may respond to what you've suggested, further above, .... .. If you'll check my most recent set of projections—(if single post, where considering cold air's both latitudinal, and more longitudinal, potential as I see them.), .. you'll see that I've suggested that cold is, in fact on the retreat at this point, and should be through the 24th. - http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1711-winter-2017-18-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=331091 — Main idea and perspective here, if granted, not so readily apparent / immediately evident, .. At times, when cold is "slowing" its more longitudinal pace and progress more eastward .. (And, with also accounting for big topography. "The Greater Coast" in this case.), .. it can be driven / "steered" and "pressed", more southward, even where "retreating" more as a whole. ... .. That's what happening now. To see this idea better perhaps, .... note, that even with cold's being / having been being, steered more latitudinally, or even more accurately in this case, "meridionally" south over recent days, ... .. That the "warmer" wetter air mass in its path and responsible for all of the precip., has been being "allowed" increasing ("daily".) more northward, where looking at past several days. ... An idea also evident with checking, further east. ... And, where otherwise looked at, how this very idea has worked to foster "all", of the three different more significant "Noreasters" having developed there over the past week or so. Check these ideas here at this NOAA site page, linked to. - https://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/view/globaldata.html#GOES ... The more-abstract ideas represented here above, are theoretical in nature, only. And so, as such, have been submitted, only as conjecture — certainly open to discussion.

(.. cross-reference.) http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1711-winter-2017-18-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=331091

(.. cross-reference.) http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1711-winter-2017-18-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=331091

- .. With its having begun to do so back on the 11th of March, at this point main cold air mass looked at more across the board from east to west fuller Northern hemispheric scope, is now about four days into a general regression back more northward. This where considering a more or less cyclical, more inner-seasonal and very near to bi-monthly more latitudinal distribution—i. e. fist general expansion, or movement and spread daily more southward, occurring over approximately two weeks, followed by a nearly equal timeframe period of regress, or "retraction" or even "contraction" of broader scope main cold having spread more southward, back, daily more northward. This current "retreat" of cold looked at more hemispherically, should continue through March 24th or so. .. During this same general timeframe, where looked at more longitudinally, main cold air mass looked at more hemispheric scope and having begun to do so back on the 9th or so of March, should be caused to continue to move at a generally more stepped up pace east for the next few days before beginning to slow its pace and progress more eastward on the 17th. No "Numerical Wx-forecast Models" have been consulted where considering the generation of the broader outlook included above as part of this post. Further, the more-abstract ideas represented above, are theoretical in nature, only. And so, as such, have been submitted here, only as conjecture — certainly open to discussion.

(.. cross-reference.) http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1711-winter-2017-18-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=328518 @

(.. cross-reference.) http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1711-winter-2017-18-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=328518

- .. With its having begun to do so back on the 25th of February, at this point main cold air mass looked at more across the board—from east to west, fuller Northern hemispheric scope—is continuing to move and spread daily more southward. This with its being set to continue to do so through the 10th of March. .. At the same time and with its having over the past few days been moving fairly assertively east - if at the same time having been steered south, main and broader cold air should be caused to start moving more slowly, more longitudinally east over and during the next four or five days. No "Numerical Wx-forecast Models" have been consulted where considering the generation of the broader outlook included above as part of this post. Further, the more-abstract ideas represented above, are theoretical in nature, only. And so, as such, have been submitted here, only as conjecture — certainly open to discussion.

.. If you check the daily fuller global IR images at the site-page accessible through the link following here just below, you'll see that since the 24th, when you'd ask this question, ... https://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/view/globaldata.html#GOES .. a significant mass of more northward sitting and tracking cold air, if with having been moving at a fair clip east where and with having been cresting north of a ridge having been set up at the time, once over and by that ridge, had turned sharply down the Coast with cold's both at that point, still slower movement east more over-all, together with also at the same time having begun to move and spread daily more south.

(.. cross-reference.) http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1711-winter-2017-18-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=325679

(.. cross-reference.) http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1711-winter-2017-18-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=325679

_ Certainly somewhat counter-intuitive (i. e. not having appeared to have been what's been occurring.) with the colder conditions scenario that's been playing out over much of California over the past four or five days @ , although, … .. At this point, main and broader cold air mass—that looked at more across the board, east to west, broader Northern hemispheric scope—is in basic recession mode. Or retracting daily more northward. And has been since Feb. 11th. Set to continue to recess still more northward through to the 25th. This while where looked at more longitudinally, main colder air mass looked at more broadly, continues to slow its pace and general progress more eastward, having begun to do so on the 15th of February, and with being set to begin to move more assertively east near to Feb. 26th. — Of note here where looking a the cold over California this past week, the significant tough of cold air having developed here in the West and moved down the greater Coast, has basically been the result of cold's having, if where having been retracting northward where looked at more as a whole (i. e. more over-all.), also at the same time, having been slowing its pace more longitudinally east. Making for a more "meridional" steering of that cold more southward. No "Numerical Wx-forecast Models" have been consulted where considering the generation of the broader outlook included above as part of this post. Further, the more-abstract ideas represented above, are theoretical in nature, only. And so, as such, have been submitted here, only as conjecture — certainly open to discussion.

- http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1711-winter-2017-18-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=312302

(.. cross-reference.) http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1711-winter-2017-18-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=314832

hey, Dan. .. Certainly with being from California myself, and with our [here] having been getting far less both rain - at lower elevations, and snow - in the mountains this year, than normal, ... — Precip. http://water.weather.gov/precip/ — Snow Depth. 2018, 2017. .. 2016, 15, 14, 13, 12, 11, 10, 09, 08, 07, 06, 05, 04. .. [For Feb. 6th, 06z] ... we could use some more of both. — {.. My own view, that we're seeing a "reverse echo" of sorts, as it were, where looking at precipitation more in general, and where considering the general amount of precip. before, through and now more after the draught. ("mirror, image".? ) } More to your thought more general here above, ... .. Unfortunately, and even with the main leaning of over-all cold (more hemispheric scope.) in fact being more "expansive" ("South", and progressively more so, daily.) at this point (As I had projected above.), … … the both longitude - or more meridional line, that that cold has been taking south, looked at together along with also the pace (variable.) east, that cold has been moving, has resulted more in the ridging that we're seeing currently. Adjust, and back-track through the daily images at the site-page accessible here just below to the 30th of Jan. or so, move daily forward, and you'll see more just how this ridging has developed relative to what I'd suggested / projected would happen (/occur.) most recently above. https://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/view/globaldata.html#GOES — More essentially, here. Plenty of cold having moved and spread daily south both east and west of the ridge in place at this point. This idea looked at along together with also, that that cold has moved / been moving relatively slowly east.

(.. cross-reference.) http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1711-winter-2017-18-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=312302

(.. cross-reference.) http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1711-winter-2017-18-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=312302

- At this point—and with having begun to do so on the 30th of January—main cold air mass looked at more hemispherically—fuller Northern hemispheric scope—is in basic expansion mode, or moving and spreading daily, steadily and progressively southward, out and down from its main higher latitude source regions and areas. This with its likely continuing to do so through to the 11th of February. This more latitudinal distribution, while during this same general period where looked at more longitudinally, main and broader cold is caused to move progressively more slowly east through the first week of February, before picking up in pace east gradually again through to February 15th or so. No "Numerical Wx-forecast Models" have been consulted where considering the generation of the broader outlook included above as part of this post. Further, the more-abstract ideas represented above, are theoretical in nature, only. And so, as such, have been submitted here, only as conjecture — certainly open to discussion.

- http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1711-winter-2017-18-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=304779

.. Tough to say at this point. As you appear (at least.) to have surmised, perhaps with having followed the basic cycle of approximately two-weeks of general expansion—or movement and spread—of cold gradually more south, followed by another two-weeks of its opposite general retraction back more northward—more "inner-seasonal" and that I've worked to point to, .. A general expansion of all cold out and down from its main higher latitude sources and regions should be in effect during the first two weeks February. — At this point, things "coldest", with having been more focused through Eastern Canada and even the more Northern portions of Eastern US, appear to be shifting more Westward (Or much further Eastward, depending upon the way you want to look at the idea.) to more over greater Asia. And with this there's a little better likelihood leastwise, of some deeper cold being caused to move southward from there to more down and over the Western side of the Great Divide. .. In the case that you might be unfamiliar with them, these 850mb both pressure and temperature height graphics work to show the changing picture pretty well. And are made available and accessible in blocks of 7 images, going back 3 1/2 days 12-hourly. http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/ua_hem.php?plot=n8&inv=0&t=cur

(.. cross-reference.) http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1711-winter-2017-18-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=304779

(.. cross-reference.) http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1711-winter-2017-18-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=304779