Trinomial

Rain just changed to snow in northern Kane County. Thanks for all the informational posts everyone! Does anyone know the expected snow ratio for the Chicago area?

I wonder if the difference between the 12z and 18z NAM qpf was due to lack of weather balloon input?

Sounds like it should really pick up after midnight. Still talks of 1+ rates after midnight for NIL.

So just like the NAM?

LOT has my grid at: Tonight: 1 - 3 Monday 2 - 4 Monday night 1 - 2 Tuesday 1 - 2 That would be impressive if it reached the high end of that!

So is it 3 to 6 inch event from Sunday night to Monday evening, and then the lake kicks in for the Chicago area?

What do we think the timing for the heaviest snows will be for the Chicago area? Late afternoon?

I still think the gfs has a great track record these past storms.

That makes perfect sense! Thanks for taking the time to explain.

Sorry, but what is waa? Still learning... Thanks!

If the gfs were to verify, are we looking at a Friday afternoon start time in the Chicago area?

That makes sense...thanks!

Tom, are you saying the 18z gfs is not likely to happen?

Sorry for the questions... Does anyone know if Instant weather weather snow maps are statistically better than pivotal? Just curious. Thanks!

Tom, I believe LOTs latest take is 5 to 10 in the Orange based on their post this morning. Couldn't post the graphic though...sorry!

What's the main difference that the Nam has a continuous snow compared to the 18z gfs? This is really coming together!

18z GFS has a little more qpf for N IL than the 12z. Not that it's a lot, but I'm curious to see the 00z runs.

Tom, what time are you thinking the first wave would start? Sunday morning? Want to know for travel reasons. Thanks!

Tom, What did the Euro say temp wise? Just wondering if we'll break any records Sunday night into Monday?

Makes sense. The 4km Nam seems to have temps diving but not as intense as the GFS. How was the 12z Euro?

Tom, I'm a little confused. The models seem to be advertising the coldest air of the season Sunday into Monday, but yet my Grid reads a high of 11 Sunday with a low of -9, and then a high of 10 on Monday. Are Winds going to be intense with this arctic blast? I thought the models were showing not getting above 0? Maybe I'm wrong. Thanks!

What was the lowest windchill reading this year at Ohare? Wondering if we get close to breaking that tonight?

Tom, they do not. This may be the reason for bad phasing.

Tom, is it still looking like extreme cold Wednesday and Thursday? I think you posted that the other day. Thanks!

I'm wondering if the current artic air coming in is playing a role in how some of the models are seeing this situation.