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Wheezer

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  1. Another week or two its , "see you next year" for the PV. The strat. vortex is currently stronger than ERA interim average but is forecasted to weaken compared to average (according to GEFS-mean) 0 of 31 members have stronger vortex than average at the last forecast step (2022-03-30 00:00:00) The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): 22.4 m/s Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: -30.8 m/s 2016 Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: 49.3 m/s 2019
  2. Most widespread snowfall of winter here in SWOhio,/N KENTUCKY. 1-3" totals
  3. PV update , another day or 2 at record status then the talked about weakening. The strat. vortex is currently stronger than all other years in the ERA interim record!!! The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): 53.4 m/s Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: -10.6 m/s 1979 Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: 47.3 m/s 1997 Dr. SIMON LEE: In the medium-term, a minor split of the stratospheric vortex will occur. The specifics of this event are uncertain and rapidly-evolving. However, forecasts remain confident that the vortex will not be significantly affected and will continue into April in a generally stronger-than-normal state, albeit perhaps slightly weaker than earlier forecasts suggested, weakening with the seasonal cycle. Looking further ahead, The split event — presuming it evolves as is currently being modelled, which seems a reasonable assumption at these lead-times — is only very brief. It does not induce the strong easterlies and extended recovery period that occur during a major SSW. The large Eurasian vortex returns quickly to the pole, taking the stratospheric NAM strongly positive once more. Things then continue in largely the same vein as before this synoptic-scale event occurred: the vortex responds “’tis but a scratch!” and continues kicking
  4. Atm looks like the panhandle and vicinity low pressure pattern we've been seeing, will continue into at least the first 10 day of March. Meaning, most of the appreciable and flooding rains will be in the midwest , Ohio Valley and Tennessee valleys, eventually the northeast. Still don't see a lot of qpf for you guys in the plains states, during this stretch. Hope that can change
  5. PV has a long way to go The strat. vortex is currently stronger than all other years in the ERA interim record!!! The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): 46.6 m/s Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: -12.4 m/s 1989 Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: 46.4 m/s 2011
  6. PV update from the 19th The latest daily 10hpa 60N zonal wind speed is still quite some way above the average and on this day stands at 43.6 m/s which is +21.439 m/s above the long term mean for 19th February and this puts up 6th on the daily list for today. This continues the general trend we have seen really the entire winter so far. Since there's no sign of any SSW then it seems above average figures are very much likely to continue for the foreseeable. The latest rolling 10hpa 60N zonal wind speed which is the rolling average from 1st November through to 19th February for 2022 stands at an impressive 41.987 m/s which is +11.462 m/s above the expected rolling mean by this stage of the season and puts 2022 into 3rd position overall and the 3rd strongest vortex year on the record so far. We are threatening to have the overall strongest vortex year on the record if we don't see things slow down soon. The strat. vortex is currently stronger than ERA interim average and is forecasted to remain stronger than average (according to GEFS-mean) 31 of 31 members have stronger vortex than average at the last forecast step (2022-03-07 12:00:00) The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): 41.3 m/s Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: -23.2 m/s 2018 Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: 56.1 m/s 2020
  7. For future reference , todays low , after moving through the bootheel of Missouri entered western KY and staying in KY while hugging the OH river to right over cincinnati
  8. Low pressure crossing into SE Missouri
  9. KC has another hour or two of moderate to heavy snow.
  10. GFS is loaded for next week . The battle ground between return flow and arctic air to the north , centered on the OH river axis , give or take. Numerous low pressures traversing this axis for the week. Much of the same areas getting hit today will see more potential wintry results next week
  11. You're in a good spot, another heavier band of to your SW should be moving in shortly
  12. Heavy snow and sleet across central Missouri
  13. 1005 low now entering NW AR and headed straight to the OH river. 2 hr pressure change
  14. I think there has been much bettter agreement with the track of the low from the 12z suite . Just north or along Ohio river through southern Illinois , southern Indiana, on up to about Cbus in Ohio. Chicagoland amounts look to be on the lighter side
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