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Everything posted by luterra

  1. Can't say for sure, except that stronger cold fronts tend to generate more of a westerly dynamic and an elongated trough of low pressure while weaker fronts have less in the way of pressure falls/rises and can allow south winds to surface along an existing southerly pressure gradient. Pretty strong latitudinal gradient today from 1036mb in southern OR to 977mb near Juneau. Looks like an atmospheric river into central coastal BC.
  2. I don't think I have ever experienced south wind with a weak front approaching while the barometer is steady at 30.52"/1034mb. Pretty standard February day otherwise, but it must be an unusual pattern that is allowing the trailing edge of a front to extend into such a strong surface ridge.
  3. South wind is ripping here at 45. Crazy that Salem still has a NE wind at 32, with no topography in the way. Must be a literal icebox effect with all of that ice on the trees acting as a refrigerator to maintain the shallow inversion.
  4. I had 13.8 in Jan 2017, maybe that counts?? It's borderline since I can get down in the 17-19 range with run-of-the-mill dry offshore flow in the winter, even with non-arctic air aloft. I'd say back to December 2013, but then we had 8.8 in a real arctic airmass in December 2009, and 11 in December 2008. Definitely has become less common of late, though with the decade-scale PDO oscillation we might return to a period when it is more common. I like arctic air, but our house/plumbing isn't really built for it, and as a gardener it knocks out the artichokes and overwintering vegetable cro
  5. You had probably the most impactful winter storm in the last decade there two years ago. Major highways closed for over a week. Amtrak stuck in Oakridge for 36 hours. Certainly comparable to what the Salem area saw last night. Not sure I would call your microclimate "benign" - although the Gorge does predispose PDX to a certain kind of windy icy snow a bit more often.
  6. Took about nine hours longer than modeled to get a temperature spike here, finally up to 37 with a southerly push. Up to 0.63" on the day. Anyone more than 10 miles north got all of that precip as ice and is still subfreezing. Limited reports due to lack of power but I think we will be shocked as the day goes on. Appears that nearly all roads through the ice zone are closed by fallen trees/wires with the exception of I-5 and 22E which have a wide cleared ROW.
  7. Almost tornado or hurricane level of destruction there.
  8. Surface front is onshore Coos Bay and Florence, probably crossing Newport right now. Will be interesting to see if that can start to mix out the valley inversion as shown in some models. Still dead stable in Corvallis, up 0.4 degrees since 8 pm.
  9. Northern ZR areas might go to snow once subzero 850s come onshore around 4 am. The ice zone looks like it will get narrower from both sides and then precip rates drop off shortly after.
  10. Doesn't appear to be a closed low, but a broad area of low pressure. HRRR has a weak closed low pinching off inland over the east valley and moving across central Oregon overnight.
  11. Nope, made it up to 33.3 during peak heating today.
  12. Based on current road closures looks like a band of heavy ice from Neskowin to Silverton and about 30 miles north to south. Corvallis and Albany are OK, just light icing and starting to warm now.
  13. Going to get a burst of strong westerlies through the south valley around 4 am. Hopefully not too much through the ice zone farther north.
  14. Looking at the HRRR evolution, the other thing blocking the establishment of southerlies through the valley is that a secondary surface low is budding off along the front and pushing across central Oregon through the early morning hours. This is a crazy strange pattern. Climbing by tenths now, up to 31.9. Feeling lucky to be just outside the damage zone on this one.
  15. I don't like the look of this. Gorge outflow is putting a cork in the bottle of the Willamette Valley and preventing a southerly gradient from setting up despite the low being so far north. Not going to lose the icing until the frontal passage weakens the outflow and cools the upper levels.
  16. It looks like the main frontal band is going to fall as ZR in the Salem area, which could add another half inch in the next few hours. Not good.
  17. It's been 50 in Roseburg all day, and the dividing line has been moving northward at a leisurely walking pace. I've been at exactly 31.6 for the past two hours - long enough to find out where ice accumulates at ever-so-slightly below freezing. This whole event has been remarkably stagnant while the winds are whipping elsewhere. The front arriving in the next couple of hours should finally give this valley cold pool a kick in the pants.
  18. We seem to have lost SilverFallsAndrew. Roads closed all directions from Silverton.
  19. Doesn't look the freezing line reaches the south metro until about 10 am tomorrow morning, at which point there has been over 3/4" of QPF.
  20. Pretty skeptical of that Ice Storm Warning for the coast range west of Eugene given current temps above freezing there.
  21. Pretty deep Gorge funnel and still getting colder. Portland, you've got 8-degree air coming at you at an elevation of 3500 feet. Hard to imagine anything liquid is going to be reaching the ground for a while. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=TRKW1&num=72&banner=gmap&raw=0&w=325
  22. Happy to hopefully miss out on the ice as well. Overnight icing that melts by morning is all impact and no fun...
  23. Doesn't look like the south valley or Eugene proper is included. Will be close...
  24. Tombstone Pass at 32 with WSW flow. Santiam Pass at 9, 15 miles away at about the same elevation. Mid-level warm air advection has arrived. Coastal boundary still between Yachats (50) and Newport (37)
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