No thread for the lead wave, but this could be quite the sneaky little juiced up storm, These type seem to thump and over perform and the local office is taking notes. That said, I wish it was spring weather, but oh well.
FROM GRR AFD
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF A SFC WAVE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE/ARCTIC DRAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE SNOW ACROSS JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONE IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE IS THE OPERATIONAL GFS AXIS OF HEAVIES QPF BEING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. CURRENT WPC QPF FOLLOWS THIS PATTERN, WITH GREATEST AMOUNTS FROM MKG TO MOP, BUT WE WILL HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT THIS TRENDS SOUTH TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND GEM WITH TIME.
MID-LEVEL F-GEN SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN MESOSCALE BANDING WITH HIGHER SNOW RATES POTENTIALLY PERSISTING AS THE BANDS PIVOT OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS. CURRENT STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 9 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN FORECAST AREA IS INDICATIVE OF THIS.