Karl Bonner

My favorite female weather anchor would be one who can out-geek Mark.

This is gonna be a fun year to track the shift out of our cold late winter pattern, and into early spring. Wouldn't it be wild if we got a warm ridge in early March, basically on top of lingering snow cover in the Columbia Basin? Maybe we could have mild spring sunshine on one side of the mountains, while the other side is still cold.

A nice abrupt change of season possible this year. Cold weather we've had will make the first 60 degree day feel that much more enchanting.

What about all that snow cover east side? Nearly 2 feet in the gorge and over a foot points east. This gave forecasters and models a real headache back in Jan-Feb 2017. Seems to me that a cold east wind could easily redevelop at some point in the next 7-10 days.

So...a pool of cold air (Fake Cold) kept The Dalles below 40 degrees for 2 days in a row, in the 2nd week of November. Pretty dang early in the season. But that raises the inevitable question: What's the latest in the season we've pulled off the same feat? I don't think I ever remember anything similar to this in the 2nd half of February, at least not without REAL cold air in the upper pattern. About the closest thing I could find in the records was a dry day with a low of 36 and high of 39, on 02/21/2009. I was living in Eugene at the time. That may well be one of the latest Fake Cold days ever to hit the Gorge and Columbia Basin.

A second pulse of modified arctic air Thursday for the Columbia Basin?

Don't tell me it's goin' east on us again!!!

It's a little easier to get inversion 1 1/2 months after the solstice (February 3-4) than 1 1/2 months before (November 6-7). In the first week of November it's still not too tough to get into the 60s with sunshine and a mild airmass. But in most years, not until the latter half of February that widespread 60s start to become readily attainable.

This is waaay too early to speculate...but wouldn't it be wild if for once, the coldest airmass of the season came after March 1?

Only a little over 2 hours until the Stoner Cuz (06z) maybe-possibly-just-hopefully gives us a taste of an arctic blast, or at least wet snow in the hills?

Scariest experience I had with trees in a windstorm? When I lived in Eugene, one time the power went out with a loud bang and when I walked down the street, some trees had been uprooted and were leaning heavily on a power line directly above the sidewalk. Definitely had to detour myself around that one...

If that's the case we better hit 70 degrees in late February

Do you think "Stoner Cuz" is a good nickname for the 06z, in a mirror analogy to the 18z Drunk Uncle?

This round of cold snap model riding has dumbfounded and flustered me like no other. The whole upper-level pattern forecast has been teetering "on the edge" for more than a week now and it STILL can't decide how much arctic air comes west of the Rockies. To sprinkle a bit of comic relief, all this wild flip-flopping seems to have broken the GEFS weather ensemble charts at the site I use. Haven't been able to get any new ones since 18z Sunday. About all we can say for sure is that the Basin at least gets a shot of medium-cold air at the end of the week. Some of that will come through the Columbia River Gorge to chill the Portland area a bit. Everything else is still a total crapshoot.

Days 9 & 10 on the Euro weren't terribly cold, though there is a cool-ish airmass over the Columbia Basin. Which might support my "Colder Fake Cold" theory if it verifies and high pressure returns...

Honestly, I'd be fine with a 135-140W ridge position late next week. Doubly so if there's a bit of backdoor tilt to the alignment. Once you get into the "deep" part of the winter season, even a moderately brisk airmass east of the Cascades can put The Dalles & Pendleton below freezing for at least 15-18 hours each day, even before any inversion redevelops. (I'm also wondering if the cool/showery interim between the two ridges might allow some higher locations east side, to get a little bit of snow cover. Hmmm...) If a "Colder Fake Cold" episode near Christmas time then retrogresses a bit further beyond that, it will be all fun. If not, then at least we may have enough cold/dry air in place for some snow and ice as progressive undercutting begins.

18z GEFS for The Dalles shows at least four members dipping to -15C, and several more flirt with -10 at one point or another (mean goes as low as -6 just before Christmas!) http://weathertogether.net/models/GFS_ENSEMBLE_1.00_DEGREE/20171211/18z/KDLS_850hPaTemp.png

Care to give us a peek?

Yup.

Today would be THE day to visit just about any town on the OR or WA coast. A strong "Riviera Effect," with sunshine, easterly flow and relatively low humidity, covered the entire coastline today. Temps are in the low 60s along the northern Oregon coast, and upper 50s as far north as Black Knob on the southwest side of the Olympics.

I am thinking this might be one of those years where our coldest action comes late in the season. Or maybe it's out there, waiting for us just beyond Christmas...

High of 67 at The Dalles Airport today = Warmest Thanksgiving since at least 1971, possibly the warmest in all of airport history.

Biggest faux-pas in TV / movies / video games is that it looks like late spring-early summer too much of the time. Where's the late summer brown grass? What about the leafless AND snowless landscape in late fall and early spring???

More mountain snow coming to the 'Lower' PNW mid/late next week! Looks like early winter seasonal conditions have arrived!

00z GFS is showing 850 temps over The Dalles of about -2 to -3 on Wednesday as precip arrives. Assuming chilly easterly flow underneath the incoming moisture (ALL the models are suggesting that it at least starts out that way), then I see no reason why it wouldn't start out as snow almost all the way to river level Wednesday morning: http://weathertogether.net/models/GFS_ENSEMBLE_1.00_DEGREE/20171105/00z/KDLS_850hPaTemp.png