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Phil

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Everything posted by Phil

  1. Notice how each EPS run has trended lower with the AAM. All guidance has been underestimating the La Niña background state this summer, over-estimating amplitude of MJOs/CCKWs crossing the W-Pacific. And the same is probably true with the upcoming -dAAMt/E-Hem MJO return in late July and August. Was initially skeptical given recent history, but now am starting to think August could actually be a cool month up there. Maybe the first one in a long time?
  2. Waiting for convection to develop here. So far I’m not impressed. Not much of a CU field over the upstream terrain and it’s almost 4pm. Either something is gonna break the cap east of the terrain and go crazy, or we’re getting nada.
  3. I’m not impressed with the setup here. Should be marginal risk. Good chance I end up with nothing but lots of unrealized CAPE.
  4. Well I’m pretty sure. EPS mean certainly looks more reasonable. Not many members look like the Operational/Control run. Probably an outlier.
  5. Fwiw I’m suspicious of how it drops that low straight south out of Alaska later in the run. Little if any precedent for that in analogous circumstances. Looks like something is amiss there.
  6. Haha, that actually ended up turning into tropical storm Colin. Crazy what a little bath water can do.
  7. Lmao. Bro you’ve gotta be 100% certain of the outcome before making a bet like that.
  8. There are several solution clusters, but most don’t look like the 00z GFS. Should trend farther away from that with time.
  9. I love that popping sound from a close strike.
  10. Operational GFS juuuust a bit of an outlier D8+.
  11. Clown range looks nice and zonal though! And no 110°F death here.
  12. @TT-SEA Those Charleston waters much be REALLY warm.
  13. Yeah, seems you and @Timmy Supercell are well positioned for a long stretch of stormy weather in the ring of fire. Michael Ventrice concurs.
  14. Folks in the Rockies/Plains are gonna f**king roast, though. And later on the Midwest/Great Lakes will join them.
  15. Oh I thought you were referring to NPAC SSTAs. And not for any significant duration, no. That WPAC MJO keeps getting neutered upon approach, with re-emergence of IO convection/-dAAMt in late July/August. That’s not a warm-west pattern until late August, verbatim. The next 2-3 weeks are the the warm window.
  16. There’s a negative five million percent chance we evolve into any kind of +PMM/warm horseshoe pattern. Ain’t happening.
  17. See, this is why I can’t get invested. Ever. Shows 110°F now. We cannot have nice things.
  18. Not quite to Jim-picking-leaves-off-trees levels, but still hilarious.
  19. Wtf? You went through the trouble of cropping the image because you’re afraid people won’t understand the difference between 12z and 00z? Lololol.
  20. Possibly given all that H2O injected into the upper atmosphere. Not certain, though.
  21. Lots of hefty storms around here today but all have missed me. Constant thunder now with the cell to the west but it’s dying and won’t make it here. Might catch a few raindrops. In the meantime, muggy after a midday high of 92°F (capped by convective cloud cover).
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