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Phil

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Everything posted by Phil

  1. Is that what you think I did? Is it possible that I shared my experience with Chris so he knew he wasn’t alone in dealing with such issues? He said the experience scared him, I was trying to make him feel better. That’s all.
  2. I’m sorry man. F**k the health insurance industry. Just a bunch of greedy swine.
  3. Probably best to ignore the “climate emergency” accounts on social media. Most of their posts either lack context or are outright false.
  4. For those of you traveling to TX, there’s a chance you’ll end up smack dab in the middle of a tornado outbreak instead. That 12z ECMWF run is cringe. Giant wedge tornado during the middle of an eclipse would be one hell of an acid trip (except it would be real, hehe).
  5. Re: eclipse. -NAO/Archambault pattern to open April suggests cyclogenesis in NE US in the days leading up to the eclipse. That signal is pretty strong. Which suggests that, by eclipse day, confluence will be sliding off eastern Canada and high pressure will be building into OH Valley if not already present. So I like odds for clear skies from OH/IN into NY. Plains/Central US more vulnerable to WAA/clouds ahead of the next storm system by that point.
  6. Ensemble clusters still look good in OH.
  7. Coldest day was 20/11 which isn’t impressive (last winter had better cold extremes despite being the warmest winter on record), however it stayed below freezing for a full week, so vibes were very different this yr. Total snow ~ 13.5”, but 80% of it fell during that cold period so we had roughly 2 weeks of unbroken snowcover before the blowtorch resumed and melted it all in 36hrs. Peak snow depth was ~ 11”, largest single snowfall ~ 6”. And there was blowing snow for 2 days between storms which was low key interesting to me. Nothing like the epic ground blizzard in 2015 but better than typical dry/snowless downsloping wind that dominates every winter.
  8. Those were the nicest summers in the last 125+ years here. I think we had something like 10-15 days total that were 90°F+, and they were low/mid 90s. Hard to believe that even happened. Looking back at the weather pattern in those years it looks completely foreign to everything I’ve come to know over the last 2 decades.
  9. As a low frequency tendency (100-day running mean in this case), probably something like that. It’s going to be warm almost everywhere, I suspect. Keep in mind this is only the low frequency component. There will be much more variability from week to week in reality.
  10. 2024 still looks like an epic year for heat misers in the US. Good chance it will be the warmest year on record for the lower-48. Dr. Roundy’s low frequency analog composite now projects a sprawling dome of high heights (warm/dry) smack dap in the middle of the continent beginning in May. Very stable too. Wobbles east/west at times, but largely stays fixed. The Midwest looks like ground zero for hellfire. https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/analogs/analogslp.html
  11. It’s possible the recent tendency towards more frequent cool anomalies in F/M/A will see a seasonal shift to the J/A/S timeframe going forward, with a warmer/drier tendency developing during the late winter and/or spring months. Though I suppose it depends on the structural (in)stability of any axisymmetric changes in the new post-niño tropical convection/circulation state. It’s clearly different now, but exactly how and to what extent cannot be ascertained (or, at least I cannot see it yet). There are a few different ways the new regime could set up.
  12. This year (probably) marks the end of the cool F/M/A regime that has dominated the last half decade. In this case it’s more ENSO-related, but going forward it’ll likely occur in response to the eastward extension of the equatorial flank of the IPWP.
  13. Yeah, at least, uh…read through the conversation before making assumptions about others’ reading comprehension skills. Geesh. My first response to Tim lacked specificity, I’ll admit. But I clarified that a few minutes later, like 5 posts down.
  14. Apparently mine is better than yours if that’s what you derived from said conversation. Ffs.
  15. No I’m not. You are attempting to use a one-dimensional metric to measure a variable with multi-dimensional components. The best metric of economic wellbeing/agency (with respect to the global population) is purchasing power parity. If you’re restricting your population to individual nations, then other metrics may be equally appropriate.
  16. Wrong. The above estimates purchasing power parity. Roughly 6.4% of the global population falls into the “high income” bracket, by this metric. If you make just $30,000/yr annually as an individual in the US, that (in all likelihood) puts you in the “high income” bracket (among the top 6.4% of the global population).
  17. But debt is conceptual (technically), while standard of living/material possession isn’t. What really matters is the latter. Otherwise we wouldn’t need currency at all. Of course that opens up other problems w/rt how wealth is calculated. It’s also messy since our system(s) of values differ across both the individual and societal spectra. I think a metric like purchasing power is the best measure of economic prosperity.
  18. Though it seems some choose to subtract debts/loans while others don’t. That makes a big difference, as well.
  19. Better perspective here. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2022/03/Global-inequalities-Stanley
  20. Top 0.5% in overall wealth. That’s why I said *in the US* since the correlation between annual income and net worth can be very different from country to country. Income by itself doesn’t tell you much.
  21. Wait are we switching to household income vs individual income? You edited this post after I replied.
  22. You can do whatever you want, it’s not my business. I never said your choices were wrong. But I’m allowed to be curious as to why. Like you, I was also obsessed with the weather at 3 years old. I figured you were as obsessed as me, but apparently you’ve chosen a healthier approach. Good on you.
  23. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2021/07/21/are-you-in-the-global-middle-class-find-out-with-our-income-calculator/ Income ≠ wealth, necessarily, but the big picture is relatively unchanged.
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