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Phil

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Everything posted by Phil

  1. Just caught up w/ the thread. Awesome pics y’all, need to live vicariously through you. Oh, and the goofus is garbage. We’d be better off without it muddying the waters.
  2. It looks odd because we haven’t seen a bonafide scand—>-NAO evolution in awhile. Feb/Mar 2018 comes to mind.
  3. Big front looks to blow through here Wednesday evening. Strong forcing/pressure surge with no inversion below 850mb. Those winds are gonna roar down the lee side of the mountains. Should be easy 50-55mph.
  4. I’ve been raging against the GFS for years. Now y’all see why.
  5. This is some great incredible troposphere/stratosphere coupling on the GFS. That -NAO signature is evident from 500mb all the way to 10mb.
  6. Good. -NAO tends to occur in tandem with -PNA. Particularly good for precip/storminess. Less of a N/S gradient.
  7. Dec -NAO during La Niña is actually a good omen for winter and for attenuation of the SW US drought. Haven’t seen it since Dec 2010.
  8. Specifics less important than the larger scale picture at this range, IMO. Verbatim it looks like a +NPO/-PNA —> -EPO/-NAM evolution which historically favors a zonal—>cold transition in the W/NW.
  9. EPS is bullish as hell on this pattern. It’s early, but so far, the canonical Niña/+QBO composite is holding up well. With some 2022-specific adjustments, of course.
  10. I was about to post that. Big shift in the cold direction vs 00z.
  11. In other news, things lining up well for a big motherf**king -EPO towards mid-December (also a -NAO tendency). Scandinavian blocking already showing up across guidance for week-2, a precursor to the Okhotsk Sea low/associated +WAFz and EPO/NAM response. Someone is gonna get real cold next month. In the meantime, the next 2 weeks look like a relative reprieve..generally +NPO/+EPO and progressive(ish). It ain’t gonna last, though.
  12. I’d love to live in a lake effect snow belt. Even just for a couple years. People I’ve talked to who’ve experienced it say it’s surreal, not just because of the snow amounts but also the extremely tight gradients in accumulation. You can go from several feet to zilch in just a couple miles.
  13. I think the GFS is incorrect with how it cuts off that trough in the SW US. Euro/EPS and CMC look nothing like that.
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