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Phil

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Posts posted by Phil

  1. For those of you traveling to TX, there’s a chance you’ll end up smack dab in the middle of a tornado outbreak instead. That 12z ECMWF run is cringe.

    Giant wedge tornado during the middle of an eclipse would be one hell of an acid trip (except it would be real, hehe).

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  2. Re: eclipse. -NAO/Archambault pattern to open April suggests cyclogenesis in NE US in the days leading up to the eclipse. That signal is pretty strong.

    Which suggests that, by eclipse day, confluence will be sliding off eastern Canada and high pressure will be building into OH Valley if not already present. So I like odds for clear skies from OH/IN into NY.

    Plains/Central US more vulnerable to WAA/clouds ahead of the next storm system by that point. 

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  3. 12 hours ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

    I'm curious, what's the coldest high temp and low temp for everyone this year, total snowfall, and largest Snow event?

    -7 low here which is maybe slightly cooler than our average coldest low, coldest high of 2 which was a midnight high, daytime high was -1 that day. 84" seasonal snow total (so far), largest 24hr event of 21" but it was probably more than that, because fluffy sub zero snow compacts VERY easily. 

    Coldest day was 20/11 which isn’t impressive (last winter had better cold extremes despite being the warmest winter on record), however it stayed below freezing for a full week, so vibes were very different this yr.

    Total snow ~ 13.5”, but 80% of it fell during that cold period so we had roughly 2 weeks of unbroken snowcover before the blowtorch resumed and melted it all in 36hrs. Peak snow depth was ~ 11”, largest single snowfall ~ 6”.

    And there was blowing snow for 2 days between storms which was low key interesting to me. Nothing like the epic ground blizzard in 2015 but better than typical dry/snowless downsloping wind that dominates every winter.

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  4. 3 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

    Summer 2000 or 2001 repeat would be nice, 2011 if we're being more reasonable. Or 1993 if we're choosers.

    Those were the nicest summers in the last 125+ years here. I think we had something like 10-15 days total that were 90°F+, and they were low/mid 90s.

    Hard to believe that even happened. Looking back at the weather pattern in those years it looks completely foreign to everything I’ve come to know over the last 2 decades.

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  5. 2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

    So a big 'ol bowling ball trough parked over Minneapolis from May through October, understood.

    As a low frequency tendency (100-day running mean in this case), probably something like that. It’s going to be warm almost everywhere, I suspect.

    Keep in mind this is only the low frequency component. There will be much more variability from week to week in reality. 

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  6. 2024 still looks like an epic year for heat misers in the US. Good chance it will be the warmest year on record for the lower-48.

    Dr. Roundy’s low frequency analog composite now projects a sprawling dome of high heights (warm/dry) smack dap in the middle of the continent beginning in May.

    Very stable too. Wobbles east/west at times, but largely stays fixed. The Midwest looks like ground zero for hellfire.

    https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/analogs/analogslp.html

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  7. 8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

    Haven’t been a lot of cool months lately even based on the coked up 1991-2020 averages. One could say we are due, but we are also heading into a time of year soon (May-September) where it has been almost impossible to score meaningful cool anomalies, based on recent history.

    It’s possible the recent tendency towards more frequent cool anomalies in F/M/A will see a seasonal shift to the J/A/S timeframe going forward, with a warmer/drier tendency developing during the late winter and/or spring months.

    Though I suppose it depends on the structural (in)stability of any axisymmetric changes in the new post-niño tropical convection/circulation state.

    It’s clearly different now, but exactly how and to what extent cannot be ascertained (or, at least I cannot see it yet). There are a few different ways the new regime could set up.

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  8. 2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

    18z GFS and ensembles looking pretty nice.

    Also, an above average February/March is looking like a slam dunk for the Portland/Vancouver area. First time since 2016.

    This year (probably) marks the end of the cool F/M/A regime that has dominated the last half decade.

    In this case it’s more ENSO-related, but going forward it’ll likely occur in response to the eastward extension of the equatorial flank of the IPWP.

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  9. 1 hour ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

    The irony of this post is insane. Tim also said that he and his wife fell in love with San Diego and continued living there by choice, not by force. 

     

    "Dude....your reading comprehension sucks...."

    Yeah, at least, uh…read through the conversation before making assumptions about others’ reading comprehension skills. Geesh.

    My first response to Tim lacked specificity, I’ll admit. But I clarified that a few minutes later, like 5 posts down.

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  10. 1 hour ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

    Dude....your reading comprehension sucks....he said his wife went into the Navy to become a nurse.  The Navy doesn't really give you a choice on where you are going to live.

    Apparently mine is better than yours if that’s what you derived from said conversation. Ffs.

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  11. 13 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

    @Phil you're making an entirely different and unrelated point. I don't disagree that the top 1% of people possess an absurdly high proportion of the world's wealth. That is a fact. What I disagree with is that most people on this forum (or someone making 50-60K a year are in that top 1% (or even 0.5% as you said.) Simple math based on the proportion of people who live in First World Countries with median incomes higher than that shows that can't be true.

    No I’m not. You are attempting to use a one-dimensional metric to measure a variable with multi-dimensional components. The best metric of economic wellbeing/agency (with respect to the global population) is purchasing power parity.

    If you’re restricting your population to individual nations, then other metrics may be equally appropriate.

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  12. 39 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

    Not sure how this is supposed to support your claim. I'm aware most of the world lives on less money than we do. What I'm disputing is the claims that "members of this forum are in the top 0.5%" and "50-60K a year puts you in the top 1% globally." Both are wrong by at least a factor of 10.

    That link you shared says that 60K per year income puts you in the top 11.8% globally. Not close to 1%.

    Wrong. The above estimates purchasing power parity. Roughly 6.4% of the global population falls into the “high income” bracket, by this metric.

    If you make just $30,000/yr annually as an individual in the US, that (in all likelihood) puts you in the “high income” bracket (among the top 6.4% of the global population).

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  13. 15 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

    It doesn't matter which metric you use. The world is not so poor that 99% of people are poorer than someone who makes 50-60K. Not even close.

    If you want to go by wealth, then many people on this forum have a negative overall wealth due to debt, so they definitely aren't in the top 0.5%. Technically they'd have less wealth than a debtless person living in a mud hut.

    But debt is conceptual (technically), while standard of living/material possession isn’t. What really matters is the latter. Otherwise we wouldn’t need currency at all.

    Of course that opens up other problems w/rt how wealth is calculated. It’s also messy since our system(s) of values differ across both the individual and societal spectra.

    I think a metric like purchasing power is the best measure of economic prosperity.

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  14. 5 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

    Not sure how this is supposed to support your claim. I'm aware most of the world lives on less money than we do. What I'm disputing is the claims that "members of this forum are in the top 0.5%" and "50-60K a year puts you in the top 1% globally." Both are wrong by at least a factor of 10.

    That link you shared says that 60K per year income puts you in the top 11.8% globally. Not close to 1%.

    Top 0.5% in overall wealth. That’s why I said *in the US* since the correlation between annual income and net worth can be very different from country to country.

    Income by itself doesn’t tell you much.

  15. 17 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

    You really think there's only ~75 million people in the world who make over 50-60k? That's absurd.

    The median household income in the US is 75K and we're over 4% of the world's population. Not to mention Western Europe, Japan, and all the wealthy people in China and around the world.

    Wait are we switching to household income vs individual income? You edited this post after I replied.

  16. 10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

    I don't really care what you think or would have done.   I was not asking for your permission to love the San Diego area for a variety of reasons.   We were very happy there.    There are many factors in life beyond just the weather.

    You can do whatever you want, it’s not my business. I never said your choices were wrong. But I’m allowed to be curious as to why.

    Like you, I was also obsessed with the weather at 3 years old. I figured you were as obsessed as me, but apparently you’ve chosen a healthier approach. Good on you. 🍻 

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  17. 7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

    I haven''t told you yet?   Literally just did.   

    We were told to move to there for 4 years by the US military.   Pretty simple.   Then bought a house and fell in the love with the area.   And we had good jobs and we were settled.   Our kids reaching school age prompted us to look elsewhere.  

    You have mentioned your decade in San Diego multiple times over the years.

    The fact you were there for so long is what confuses me. No weather at all for 12 years? That sounds miserable, I doubt I could stay in a marriage if that was the ultimatum.

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  18. 7 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

    Considering nearly 10% of the world's population lives in the US and Western Europe, that's definitely not true.

    You forgot to unskew your distribution, silly.

    If you make 50-60K annually in the US, you are very likely within in the top-1%, globally.

    Not to mention differences in property values/cost of living. Makes a big difference in terms of net worth (by this metric, Americans are even wealthier compared to income alone).

  19. 22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

    Dude... I swear you half read everything.

    Read it again.  She was stationed there.   Do you think the Navy gives you a choice?

    But we ended up falling in love with it there and stayed for 12 years.   Only when our twin boys were toddlers did we yearn to go back to where there are forests and greenery.    Almost moved back to MN but we really didn't want to deal with the extreme cold there.   And then my wife got an amazing opportunity in Seattle.   Our sons still thank us for allowing them to grow up here.   

    One of my family members (cousin’s husband) just completed his deployment in December, that’s why they lived in CO Springs (I visited them last May if you remember). I know how it works, they decide where you go.

    I asked because you’ve told me in the past you lived in San Diego for “over a decade” but never explained why. And still haven’t. 😉

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