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Posts posted by Phil

  1. Notice how each EPS run has trended lower with the AAM.

    All guidance has been underestimating the La Niña background state this summer, over-estimating amplitude of MJOs/CCKWs crossing the W-Pacific.

    And the same is probably true with the upcoming -dAAMt/E-Hem MJO return in late July and August.

    Was initially skeptical given recent history, but now am starting to think August could actually be a cool month up there. Maybe the first one in a long time? 😶


  2. 19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

    12Z ECMWF shows clouds breaking up during the afternoon on Monday with a high the low 70s... and the evening looks clear now.    Probably no rain that day.

    12Z ECMWF also looks less showery through the upcoming week... particularly compared to the 12Z run yesterday.   Every day is warmer than the 00Z run which warmer than the 12Z run.    


    Fwiw I’m suspicious of how it drops that low straight south out of Alaska later in the run.

    Little if any precedent for that in analogous circumstances. Looks like something is amiss there.

    • Snow 1
  3. 10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

    No... westward.   And not necessarily all the way out here.    

    Oh I thought you were referring to NPAC SSTAs.

    And not for any significant duration, no. That WPAC MJO keeps getting neutered upon approach, with re-emergence of IO convection/-dAAMt in late July/August.

    That’s not a warm-west pattern until late August, verbatim. The next 2-3 weeks are the the warm window.

    • lol 1
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