Phil

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Hope so!   Mountains get absolutely buried and then we have a white Christmas and New Years here and then spring arrives in February.   

I could settle for that winter. Was an absolute torch here (warmest winter on record until last year) but we had one week of bliss.

27 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I still think we are going to catch a little bit of magic this winter.  To me this season just doesn't have a Nino feel to it yet.  Still very possible the second half of the winter will go into that dreaded El Nino pattern that we all hate so much, but not yet.

It’s possible, but I wouldn’t say it’s probable. Will take something substantial to overcome such a potent El Niño.

Top-tier, wave-2/split type SSW is (probably?) the only way to do it.

I just hid all the posts from that devolving conversation, including my own post that started it. I wrongly assumed we could handle a little humor but we all failed, myself included. Let’s keep wx-side on topic going forward.  

Real SSW beginning D11-16 on the 12z GFS.

Interesting. December has been stable or even cooled slightly in the PNW in the post WWII era, while January has warmed more than any other month.

https://x.com/climatologist49/status/1730771527933857921?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ

Beautiful pattern for upward wave driving on the 12z GFS.  

14 hours ago, LowerGarfield said:

Had .5 today to add to my .10 total. While I was measuring the snow I got a call from a paramedic and my wife who spun out due to some ice or snow on Alpowa Summit although the road was clear when I drove out there. They went right around the time that late morning/early PM band went right throug SE WA and slammed into a car and the rail. Her and my MIl are in the hospital in Lewiston tonight. I'm home with my son who is thrilled that I'm letting him play SIMS tonight. MIL has a severed spinal cord and paralyzed and is being flown to Boise. My wife may get flown elsewhere with ankle and bone injuries. She has it rough but better.

On a weather note the winds are picking up before tomorrow's windstorm and the snow has become rain.

I’m so sorry man, that’s messed up. Sending thoughts and prayers.

3 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Holy frick.  

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I already a tree fall in my neighborhood today at 20 mph. However it was dead and due to fall any day tbh.

The next big time windstorm is going to drop at least 50% of the trees in my Everett family’s neighborhood. So many tall, skinny, diseased softwoods with houses right underneath them.

Gonna be ugly when it inevitably happens.

1 minute ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

 

 

 

 

A SSW can be a game changer in the Winter, especially if it’s a major one like what this one looks like it’s gonna be. A major SSW event can overpower an El Niño like in 1968-69. Sometimes it only takes 2 weeks to feel the downstream effects of an SSW and to deliver an Arctic Blast down to the continental USA. The January 2019 SSW is an example of this. 

I’m not counting my chickens before they hatch. Want to see it get closer before getting excited.

6 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Guessing wet grounds and maybe trees that still have leaves can cause more problems than otherwise.  

Another example is that our criteria here in  Leavenworth for WSW's and WWA's is often lowered for the first winter storm of the year, so the context can alter their criteria a bit.  

Just a guess though 

.

Suppose that makes sense. Though I’d think a special weather statement would suffice for that.

This was the special weather statement updating a high wind warning here a few years back.

Even on this one they waited to pull the trigger on the HWW until the last minute. Never seen one issued for gusts < 60mph.

40 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

The NWS finally issued it.

High Wind Watch

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Portland OR
223 PM PST Fri Dec 1 2023

ORZ006>008-WAZ039-021500-
/O.NEW.KPQR.HW.A.0001.231203T0900Z-231204T0300Z/
Greater Portland Metro Area-Central Willamette Valley-
South Willamette Valley-Greater Vancouver Area-
Including the cities of Hillsboro, Portland, Wilsonville,
Oregon City, Gresham, Troutdale, Salem, McMinnville, Woodburn,
Stayton, Dallas, Eugene, Springfield, Corvallis, Albany, Lebanon,
Vancouver, Battle Ground, Ridgefield, Washougal, Yacolt,
and Amboy
223 PM PST Fri Dec 1 2023

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph
  possible.

* WHERE...In Oregon, Greater Portland Metro Area, Central
  Willamette Valley and South Willamette Valley. In Washington,
  Greater Vancouver Area.

* WHEN...From late Saturday night through Sunday evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power
  lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A High Wind Watch means hazardous high
  wind conditions are favorable in and close to the watch area in
  the next 12 to 48 hours.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this
situation. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe
location prior to the onset of winds.

How do you get a high wind watch for 50mph gusts? That’s barely wind advisory criteria which is nationally standardized.

Insane Scandinavia ridge on the clown range drunkle.

If that actually verified, even strong niño climo could be thrown for a loop. Zero chance the PV would survive that. Just..wow.

14 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

A SSW? LFG. Doesn’t it take 4-6 weeks to have an impact?

Not necessarily. Effects can be synchronous or lagged 8+ weeks depending on the nature of the SSW.

This setup is more favorable for faster propagation/better coupling to the troposphere thanks to QBO and WAFz conduits.

*If* it happens.

28 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

nothing more reliable than two GFS runs in a row showing the same thing 300 hours out! 

That would be nice. And it’s early enough in the season that niño climo wouldn’t be overly hostile yet (for the NW) as coupling to the troposphere establishes heading into midwinter.

https://x.com/climatologist49/status/1730636594565312946?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ

49 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Multiple analogs from 1955 again on tonight's GFS run.  About the most antithetical winter you could have to an El Nino.  We should be prepared to be surprised.

Be careful not to over-interpret transient subseasonal overlap. This winter will not resemble 1955/56.

Interesting. Climatological peak of winter in the West is 3-4 weeks away. Basically follows insolation?

Today’s extended GEFS control run has a monstrous SSW event (bottom-up variety 30-50mb W2 split) in mid/late December that is well coupled to the troposphere. Result is wild blocking across the NH.

Probably won’t happen but amusing to see.

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Actually it was Jan 1999 through 05/06 that sucked.  Without question the worst round of winters ever recorded here.

Multiyear Niñas following East-based Niños seem to lack blocking over the Pacific in the post WWII era. Though sample size is lacking.

73/74 - 75/76 following 72/73 EP Niño, and 98/99 - 01/02 following 97/98 EP Niño.

Now that I think of it, maybe you guys don’t want a Niña next winter since this is another EP Niño.  

In fact, there’s probably no correlation between PNW winters and the IPWP cycle. If anything the extended period is typically blockier across the NH, all else being equal.

Other interplaying factors have more power over the regional winter outcomes. The reason 02/03 - 05/06 sucked in the PNW compared to 13/14 - 17/18 isn't solely due to the IPWP/MM state.

1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

So a Feb 1996-Nov 2003 type shitt?

There can be good winters in there. 2013/14 occurred within the previous extended IPWP regime.

2013 - 2018

2002- 2007

1991-1996

Are the 3 previous cyclical extension of the equatorial flank of the IPWP toward the dateline.

34 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

this is going to be epic

Hey, I did call the multiyear niña several years out.  Same reason I think +ENSO will dominate the second half of this decade.

Only question (IMO) is if the transition of the IPWP state is happening now/into 2024, or in 2025.

I know I’ll be called a troll or debbie downer but there’s no bias or ulterior motive involved on my part (unless it’s subconscious). If I’m wrong, then you guys get to laugh at me.

37 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

right back to Nina next year?

 

On paper (only taking into account the structure of this ENSO event) you would think a flip to La Niña is highly likely.

However I am skeptical it happens, for other reasons. For the time being I’m anticipating a progression more akin to 57/58 —> 58/59. But it’s possible the next interdecadal IPWP extension waits until 2025, in which case a single year Niña is possible.

But either way, I strongly believe the second half of the 2020s will be dominated by El Niño and a more +PDO/+PMM type base state. I’ll wager a good sum on it.