Phil

Sorry, lol. Flat waveguide --> shift in EA-NAMT ratios -> NPAC jet breaks through (day 9) --> SE ridge gets blown apart --> transition into zonal regime.

Well, I think it moved in the wrong direction all around. Right from the beginning, the macroscale waveguide across the Pacific was flatter. That's a dagger every time, no exceptions.

Looks like the beginning stages of a +EPO vortex to me. Euro loves to torque troughs SW along mountainous terrain so maybe it pulls one of its BS stunts in that regard but overall, right from day one I don't like the look of the run.

Need to amplify that waveguide to dig the trough. Otherwise it's a flatter wavetrain, more progressive US trough, and a quicker/easier return to a +EPO/+AO as 120E forcing takes over. Bad run.

This run might actually end up being worse than 12z.

Lol, sorry man.

That's true, but the waveguide out of the NEPAC flattened for some reason, hence the front makes less progress. Probably a fluke but verbatim it's pedestrian.

The Arctic front is actually farther north in BC at 108hrs. How is that better?

It'll be a pedestrian run overall. Next.

It's not going to be as good.

I'd pay very good $$$ to have this run verify. Would be truly record shattering in so many ways.

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/82B2C8DD-EF51-484A-9792-992CFECB96D1_zpsaonwxeke.png

Lol..reload attempt in clown range. Less of a Hudson Bay Vortex also helping. Man look at all that blue.. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/F74B3835-D76E-43D5-A740-130CD3D743CB_zpscjpvhpho.png

Hindsight is 20/20 but it makes sense. Weak -ENSO, similar low frequency NPAC cell/PDO, NATL cell/AMO, cool IO, QBO westerly @ 50mb..etc

Those early/mid 1980s analogs are looking like real winners.

Long range 00z GFS is an icebox. Highs in the single digits in the suburbs, lows in the -10s.

Lol, something like that.

Over 60 degrees below average in IL on the 00z GFS.

Verbatim, the GFS is showing all-time record cold over much of the US (by mid-December standards). Longstanding records would come crashing down in lots of places.

Isn't bainbridgekid going to be in Chicago for this blast? He's gonna freeze his arse off if the 00z GFS has its way.

Only two years with Bering Sea Ridges as strong as the one progged (in December)..2008 and 2013. Both went on to be solid winters in the PNW.

The PV lobe aloft is more positively tilted..by over 100 degrees. At 78 hours. Laughable..I'm going to bed.

Lol, 00z GFS already ridiculously different with the longwave progression at 72hrs across the hemisphere. For whatever reason this model is struggling w/ the ongoing pattern.

High as a kite.

Drunk uncle is back!!