Phil

I need to stop looking at the clown range GooFuS. What a terrible model. Always tries to blow up EPAC/WHEM tropical convection. Also have no idea how it manages a full blown NPAC jet extension without a favorable background WAF field for it, but whatever.

Horrible snow pattern for everyone in the country really, except those living in the Lake Effect snowbelts. We call it "suppression depression" here..basically squashes everything into oblivion. That said, someone downwind of the Great Lakes is going to rake in 6-8+ feet of snow there over the next 10 days. I'm considering a snow chase out there next week.

Well, a gargantuan, steroidal +NAO vortex will always be detrimental to meridional streamflow over the US. I mean, look at this thing. It's seemingly dominating the entire hemispheric wavetrain. Good lord.. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/CC4DDAC4-BC21-4299-8B41-F74DECBF05D5_zpsywyhwntb.png

That would be it, yeah. I always said there was a chance it could slide east if the Hudson Bay Vortex/NAO failed to cooperate, which looks to be the case this time. Need just enough downstream blocking to keep the WHEM waveguide less progressive, but not so much that it overwhelms the Pacific. Though, you guys aren't even close to being done. If late December fails, I see another huge opportunity towards the end of January, into February.

Obviously there are a few issues with the 83/84 analog heading towards the second half of winter (as well as the NAM/PV in general being volcanically compromised that year), but into New Years I think it'll serve as a rough guide. This January looks to attempt at a -NAO/Scandi-Eurasian ridge type setup, which will both promote the type of wave driving that'll support a SSW/PV breakdown and a typical midwinter -AO type pattern response which could be very cold for the US if the Pacific cooperates.

So, about that 1983-84 analog..mid-December that year during weeks two and three: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/4C8AB410-4FD3-4671-BB8E-07A1AD15A21E_zpswixyzkwq.jpg

I don't think I can offer much help on the mesoscale level. My understanding of the microclimatic complexities out there is pretty much zero. What skills I have are confined to the larger scale stuff. That's one of the reasons I don't post as much when you guys are discussing an ongoing event. I'm out of my league at that point, so I'm better off listening and learning.

Lol, I haven't watched a minute of Star Wars. You're fine.

Ordinarily there would be a SE ridge with the given NPAC setup, but that giant Hudson Bay vortex/+NAO just squashes it.

Definitely not that one.

18z GFS looks great in the clown range again but really playing with fire upstream. Will probably finish with an Alaskan low/+EPO given the progression verbatim, but that's really not worth paying attention to at this point.

18z GFS taking on a flatter look over the NPAC again.

Yeah, definitely have seen that windshield wiper effect in the extended range. Still, it's a fragile game because a broad/flat NPAC anticyclone and/or -WPO will strengthen and align the PV while an amplified wavebreaking regime will tilt/perturb the PV from underneath. Can be the difference between a baratropic PV and a baroclinic one..

Ouch, the 12z EPS mean is ugly in the extended range. Way too much -WPO/+EPO hence a stronger systematic coupling w/ the PV. Western 2/3rds of the nation ends up blowtorching under the Alaskan vortex.

Well it's going to be strengthening in the upper levels but will remain perturbed in the lower levels despite the -WPO (favors stronger PV and rising AO). Key is to avoid a complete vertical coupling.

Does the trick, though verbatim it'd probably be a "grand finale" of sorts as the PV recouples over the pole.

Clown range 12z GFS is gonna try something.

Warmest autumn on record in DC. Hopefully we're snapping out of this multi-year warm stretch now. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/12/02/record-toppled-autumn-in-washington-d-c-was-the-warmest-in-144-years/?utm_term=.7ee4c5a7b44f

Wavebreaking less stable meridionally on the 12z GFS so far. Might make it tougher.

Mind taking a video or two? Need my fix.

I'm gonna max out my quota of likes pretty soon. I demand that restriction be removed during winter events.

I've never seen the d11-15 ECMWF ensembles quite this bullish on cold before. Has sub -20 departures continuing in western Canada out to d15. Crazy..huge source of bitter air ready to be tapped and put to good use. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/EE65EF53-D566-492D-9BFB-2365F6EB97E7_zps6xu90ok0.jpg

Received another trace of snow/sleet followed by a quarter-inch of rain last night. Clearing now w/ the W/NW winds starting.

12z GFS in 17 minutes!!

Lol, I see what you did there.