Phil

That's just..perfect.

Last two GFS runs really attempt at this.

Lol, the best model runs always happen when I'm sleeping. So yeah, I'm liking my second half of December call right about now.

Rain/sleet/snow mix here at 42.3 degrees, thanks to evaporative cooling/werbulbing. Should turn over to all rain shortly.

Awesome pics dude. Jealous.

Lol, either that or a big, fat GOA vortex.

That's a LOT of Arctic air across the continent on the 18z. At least we can't complain about a lackluster source region anymore.

Haha, that's an eloquent way of putting it, but yeah there's still that underlying systematic tendency to put a trough in the GOA domain. It'll be a fight all winter to keep that subdued unless we can get more persistent subsidence along/west of 120E in the tropics.

Lolz, gotta love the NAM. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/311E4166-0999-449C-A652-FDD852AAE0A9_zpsfxbtifgc.jpg

The 12z EPS mean is an improvement over 00z. Stronger high latitude blocking and a more displaced PV/cold core into western and central North America. Could still use more amplification out of the NPAC though, as there's still too much GOA vorticity there verbatim, which sends the majority of the cold east of the Rockies.

Lol. The GGEM ensembles show how it could all fail and morph into 1999/00 repeat. Oh noes! http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/6EE600F2-12A6-4AE3-B4E9-23FC7CA7E192_zpsrxibui08.png

Thanks, no problem.

There's a chance you might.

So..here's how mid/late December could overperform all expectations, via a troposphere/stratosphere PV coupling right over west/central Canada. Some modeling (including the 12z GFS/GEFS) sends WAFz into the stratPV via the NATL, following the ongoing CW event. So, mass flux increases upon propagation into western Eurasia, and an appendage of the PV strengthens over west/central Canada following the wave2 cycle response. So, when we cycle from wave2 back into wave1, the dominant PV lobe consolidates over western Canada, while the Eurasian portion of the PV gets blasted. So, via that GOA/EPO ridge, the big vortex in west/central Canada can couple with the PV there while the wave1/MT shot out of Eurasia bombards the polar domain with WAFz/blocking, forcing the entire lower PV column into western Canada. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/5309EB33-342B-4F03-890F-10DB6F57E9D0_zpsdptzbzow.jpg Then we'd have a mostly coupled PV sitting somewhere in the vicinity of Alberta, possibly ready to unload over the region if we can keep wave driving/blocking going. So while we'd be playing with possible +EPO fire if the wave driving fails, it could also turn into something historic if everything is of sufficient amplitude and is timed properly.

It's definitely peaked SSTA wise, given the oceanic KW that's now propagating eastward (response to the niñoi-sh intraseasonal forcing last month), however I think the atmosphere will likely retain the weak, low frequency Niña background state into/through February, at least.

Same. That recent MJO passage appears to have rejiggered the background wavetrain just enough (broadened Walker Cell and slightly retracted Pacific Hadley Cell) to allow the more classic Niña mode of +QBO/off-equator WPAC forcing to take hold and build the NPAC anticyclone poleward. Ironically, the fact the Niña background was so weak earlier was probably a benefit..otherwise it might have resisted the intraseasonal/MJO forcing that altered it in your favor. Amazing how complicated and unpredictable this stuff can be.

Also, via this particular conduit, you guys wouldn't even need stratospheric help to maintain the proper waveguide. Perfect way to prevent a tropospheric coupling with the PV so long as the tropical/extratropical forcing connection holds.

Y'all should be drooling over the 12z GEFS. Perfect EAMT/NAMT synchronicity w/ the tropical forcing/poleward WAFs. That's how you build an AK/Arctic block and downstream SE ridge.

The 12z GEFS mean is a thing of beauty. Perfect orientation of the tropical forcings and off-equator forcing, hence a relocation of the next round of wavebreaking right over AK. Mid/late December starting to look closer to how I envisioned it.

It doesn't have to adhere to anything except the laws of physics.

06z GFS looks great (and more sensible) to me, as far as the pattern progression is concerned.

Hard to stay snow with 925-950mb temps above freezing. That'd be closer to a graupel or sleet sounding if it's just confined to that layer.

Who are you, and what did you do with Jesse?? I kinda thought your earlier posts were unnecessary as well, but whatever. I'll do my best to reel in my prolific negative bias going forward.

Alaskan vortex/+EPO in the making on the 18z GFS. Meh, next.