Phil

Well, the ECMWF/EPS actually (mostly) caved to the GEFS/GFS in the extended range. Don't see that too often.

The GGEM/ensembles took a notable step towards the GFS/GEFS today, on the large scale. Wouldn't surprise me if the ECMWF trends that way tonight.

What happened to those warm analogs??

How was 1977/78 out west? That year has been dominating the CPC analogs lately. Not the best seasonal analog by standard application(s), though. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_12gfs814.gif

That's because they have been.

The weeklies are warm. Just have to make that clear for the sake of objectivity.

Yeah, and I'm highly skeptical of that outcome. At least in January..February runs a higger +AO risk in +QBO/Niña years but it's not always the case.

Just saw the new weeklies..eww. Blowtorches most of the nation through January under a raging +EPO. That's definitely not something you'd expect in a weak -ENSO/+QBO. In fact, since 1950, no such pattern has occurred in January during a weak Niña/+QBO winter.

Exactly. The data and initialization scheme don't change. The computers just process that data later.

Guys, the EPS and GEFS means aren't that far apart. They're different, but it's nothing earth shattering.

Look at the day/date on each of your timestamps. One is valid on Tuesday the 6th, the other is valid on Wednesday the 7th. The two aren't very dissimilar at all. In fact that's pretty good agreement for a week out.

These images are a full 24hrs apart. One is on the 7th, the other on the 6th. There's your difference.

Fat thumbs + smartphone. See the corrected comparison above..not a huge difference at all.

That just brings them closer (12z to 12z). Your images are 24hrs apart..maybe clear your cache? http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/0FCFAF14-F62B-4707-806E-38B002B2B18A_zpshrh9cdyt.png http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/F56DDFC5-1D46-4F6A-B814-17A44DEE0847_zpsua6kuodd.png

I think you have mismatched timestamps there. There's a difference but it's not as stark as that map depicts, and certainly not extraordinary for d6.. EPS mean: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/F56DDFC5-1D46-4F6A-B814-17A44DEE0847_zpsua6kuodd.png GEFS mean: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/BE7CAF8B-FE69-497A-9E17-7C18921231EF_zpsscpeexft.png

I'm not sure I'd take it that far. They definitely trended more progressive, especially in the d11-15 range, but they're still worlds better-looking than the GFS/GEFS et al.

I'm predicting another EPO tank and subsequent Arctic blast into the US around the Holidays, however I'm not sure where/how it'll unload, so that period could either feature a western ridge or a deep trough depending on where the waves set up. I'm more confident in a warmer pattern during early/mid January, with a colder pattern following from late January into February following a SSW/PV break-up, which should take place during the second half of January.

Strike that, clown range reverts back into the emulation of a super niño again. We just spent two months wiggling out of that system state, and it took an unprecedented smack to the PV and resultant equatorial tropopausal cooling to ignite the MJO wave that finished it off. Lolz.

I think the regime progged by the LR GFS (et al) is different than the giant +EPO/+WPO/+PNA which dominated all of October and November (though, that pattern will return at some point). Looks closer to something like 2014/15 or 1993/94, with the +NAO/western ridge.

Lol, compact vort right over Alaska. Sometimesdylan will like this run.

The GFS often has a progressive wavetrsin bias over North America, however all of the modeling (including the ECMWF/EPS) trended that way today, save the operational GGEM. The GFS is still the most progressive of all the modeling, which isn't very surprising I guess, since it usually seems to be.

Haha, the 12z ECMWF is a coast to coast icebox in the extended range. Literally no positive anomalies anywhere in the lower 48.

Yeah, the westward-biased longitude of the wavebreak and tropical forcing/WAFs are why I've been on the conservative side so far. Though as I'm sure everyone knows, the smaller mesoscale stuff isn't my strong suit, so take my thoughts with a grain of salt.

Well, your gain will be everyone else's loss, so be careful!

This ECMWF run is actually colder than 00z in WA/OR, thanks to a stronger upstream wavebreak. That said, it also has a somewhat longer, more progressive waveguide overall, which is closer to the GFS depiction to some extent. However, it handles the wavebreak itself very differently than the GFS, which is very important when it comes to the initial shot of polar air.