Phil

The ECMWF has really pulled back on the extent to which the trough digs into the SW. That's been one of its biases for awhile now, and it looks to still be a problem. Huge differences there even compared to two days ago..like, it's almost a whopping 200 miles farther NE with the base of the trough.

12z ECMWF very similar to the GFS overall, actually has lower 500mb heights over the NPAC/western Aleutians compared to the GFS and GGEM.

Every 12z GFS analog year on the CPC site (except one) was a +QBO year. As research continues to pour into the literature networks, it's now very difficult to deny the importance of the stratospheric background state in seasonal forecasting, IMO.. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_12gfs814.gif

Also has the tropical forcing/poleward WAFs further east, closer to 140E/150E instead of 120E. If this comes to fruition, it bodes much better for you guys.

GFS is dangling some red meat in the clown range. Much less amplified EAMT/Branstrator Wave.

Wind is roaring today, enough to make house creak and rumble at times. Have to say, this winter feels like like it's starting out somewhat more "rationally" than recent years which were early season blowtorches, though November was brutally warm once again.

Looks like some early-season cold in the pipeline starting late next week, either Thursday or Friday. Maybe a few days with highs in the mid/upper 20s? Either way it looks like colder weather and some snowfall opportunities will begin shortly.

Well, the ECMWF/EPS actually (mostly) caved to the GEFS/GFS in the extended range. Don't see that too often.

The GGEM/ensembles took a notable step towards the GFS/GEFS today, on the large scale. Wouldn't surprise me if the ECMWF trends that way tonight.

What happened to those warm analogs??

How was 1977/78 out west? That year has been dominating the CPC analogs lately. Not the best seasonal analog by standard application(s), though. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_12gfs814.gif

That's because they have been.

The weeklies are warm. Just have to make that clear for the sake of objectivity.

Yeah, and I'm highly skeptical of that outcome. At least in January..February runs a higger +AO risk in +QBO/Niña years but it's not always the case.

Just saw the new weeklies..eww. Blowtorches most of the nation through January under a raging +EPO. That's definitely not something you'd expect in a weak -ENSO/+QBO. In fact, since 1950, no such pattern has occurred in January during a weak Niña/+QBO winter.

Exactly. The data and initialization scheme don't change. The computers just process that data later.

Guys, the EPS and GEFS means aren't that far apart. They're different, but it's nothing earth shattering.

Look at the day/date on each of your timestamps. One is valid on Tuesday the 6th, the other is valid on Wednesday the 7th. The two aren't very dissimilar at all. In fact that's pretty good agreement for a week out.

These images are a full 24hrs apart. One is on the 7th, the other on the 6th. There's your difference.

Fat thumbs + smartphone. See the corrected comparison above..not a huge difference at all.

That just brings them closer (12z to 12z). Your images are 24hrs apart..maybe clear your cache? http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/0FCFAF14-F62B-4707-806E-38B002B2B18A_zpshrh9cdyt.png http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/F56DDFC5-1D46-4F6A-B814-17A44DEE0847_zpsua6kuodd.png

I think you have mismatched timestamps there. There's a difference but it's not as stark as that map depicts, and certainly not extraordinary for d6.. EPS mean: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/F56DDFC5-1D46-4F6A-B814-17A44DEE0847_zpsua6kuodd.png GEFS mean: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/BE7CAF8B-FE69-497A-9E17-7C18921231EF_zpsscpeexft.png

I'm not sure I'd take it that far. They definitely trended more progressive, especially in the d11-15 range, but they're still worlds better-looking than the GFS/GEFS et al.

I'm predicting another EPO tank and subsequent Arctic blast into the US around the Holidays, however I'm not sure where/how it'll unload, so that period could either feature a western ridge or a deep trough depending on where the waves set up. I'm more confident in a warmer pattern during early/mid January, with a colder pattern following from late January into February following a SSW/PV break-up, which should take place during the second half of January.

Strike that, clown range reverts back into the emulation of a super niño again. We just spent two months wiggling out of that system state, and it took an unprecedented smack to the PV and resultant equatorial tropopausal cooling to ignite the MJO wave that finished it off. Lolz.