Phil

Just for fun, here are the CFS snowfall maps going into January...lol @ the snow down to the gulf coast: http://catchmypicture.com/f/YPdDHd/800.jpg http://catchmypicture.com/f/9JMrfa/800.jpg

Thanks for the advice. I do my best to explain myself here, and provide peer reviewed literature to verify my statements when asked. It's just hard to respond politely someone who seems to have an ulterior motive.

The retrograde of the western ridge that will develop in the later portion of December.. I thought that was a pretty clear allusion..when do we ever speak of retrogrades here unless it involves the NE-Pacific ridge?

Maybe, but there are no indications of anything significant out your way until January, in my opinion. We're likely going to enter a +PNA/-EPO/-NAM regime before the retrograde

I'm not seeing that..VP200 anomalies are a better tool to use than those phase diagrams..you're just seeing a boatload of high frequency CCKW contamination

MEI is back up to +0.712..El Niño is here and has been for awhile..

Glad to see I'm not on my own with this

Thinking that it'll bifurcate with one piece splitting into Eurasia while other dives into Canada? That's always hard to determine. The 100-50mb portion of the vortex is the most important.

Might be time for more jaws music..PV transitions from a barotropic state into a baroclinic state over the next 2-3 weeks..preparing to self destruct around the turn of the new year? Looks like a classic precursor wave-1 here..anyone else have thoughts on this? http://catchmypicture.com/f/8xgpxD/800.jpg

Well, I certainly do..

I didn't miss anything....long range forecasting is a physics-based science..it's not all guesswork.. Here's my winter forecast from back in October: http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/644-my-forecast-for-winter-2014-15/page-2?do=findComment&comment=47919 I called for the Alaskan wave breaking event to occur mid/late November..that's what happened..I never specified how many arctic events would arise from that.. Hopefully that's easy enough to understand?

Those phase diagrams are heavily contaminated right now..that has almost no chance of happening..

Huh?

This is one of my favorite studies so far..fairly easy to understand and scientifically sound: http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/14/23745/2014/acpd-14-23745-2014.pdf

Great paper right there. I wish there was more research done on the dual nature of the relationship between tropical forcing and the stratosphere..a lot of chicken-egg paradoxes here but it's clear that there's a feedback loop at work. An MJO event can assist or force a SSW event, which can assist/force a change in the MJO, etc.

Precursors to the major SSW event showing up now on the longer range models..PV is pushed into a baroclinic state in the week-2 timeframe, followed by a preceding wave-1 response..this could be it.. Timing looks right on schedule thus far..late December/early January..

Yeah, this pattern fooking sucks..looks a lot like 1986-87 for now..

Gorgeous pic, dude. That's postcard material right there..

Also tried to capture two eagles making love in one of the old tulip trees, but it came out like s**t..still funnyish.. http://catchmypicture.com/f/rUGRpk/1280.jpg

We're the new SEA: http://catchmypicture.com/f/889PEK/1024.jpg

37, drizzly, foggy, breezy, ugly

What an ugly son of a b*tch..can't wait until this bugger self destructs: http://catchmypicture.com/f/ksGbyq/800.jpg

No changes...early/mid January was always the target..if the SSW is delayed a week or two, the January blast(s) will be as well.

No -PNA for 5-6 weeks

I prefer to use the basic streamfunction re-analysis on the ESRL site...the .2101 sigma option also works if you're interesting in plotting Walker Cell strength as well, but need to save time: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl