Phil

This run looks slightly more progressive than the 12z, but no huge changes within the believable range. Decent pattern regardless.

Significant Arctic blast in mid/late December that year. Here's the 12z ECMWF mean for days 5-10 and 10-15. The mean is cooler than average through the entire two week period and beyond. Days 5-10: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/F6D709EF-5641-4EB2-B303-F21137D26E04_zpsqmydrgnx.png http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/BD6C2D76-8A84-49B2-B4BF-7964A5122435_zps9o7sqkgh.png Here's days 10-15: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/B8B465A6-DA29-4FD8-99BD-BB25327EB149_zpsile5klel.png http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2BED6FA2-6BE4-4C96-B651-4D408DC72640_zpswp2n59bx.png

12z ECMWF ensemble mean looks like 1983. Frigid across the nation, with the heart of the Arctic air centered over the Intermountain West and Plains states.

There's water falling from the sky..what the heck is going on?!

We all need it badly. Terrible situation ongoing in Gatlinburg TN. Wildfire there is so out of control it's producing its own "weather" now, with winds over 80mph and temperatures up to 120 degrees occurring downtown.

Zzzzzzz

Modeling is much improved with the secondary wavebreak today, hence the improved solutions/increased meridional streamflow downstream. The struggles are occurring in the d5/d8 period, so that's the timeframe to watch IMO.

Good thing it's worthless.

Just for laughs..this would be epic. Plenty chilly in the PNW too. Alaska, California, Georgia, and Maine all under the same frigid airmass. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/395850BA-D261-4670-A4CF-DBC6BC0DAED8_zpsktdjcnxv.png

It makes perfect sense to me. The first NEPAC/EPO wavebreak fails to cycle and propagate poleward, hence U-MT remains higher and the waveguide slides east.

Every single state in the US (except Florida) is colder than average by hr240 on the 00z ECMWF. That'd be pure awesomeness if it verified. Maybe it's our turn to experience the widespread icebox Eurasia just went trough.

What about it is suspicious? I thought you agreed that later in December would offer better opportunities.

Was about to comment on that. If we can keep the strong blocking around for awhile, everything will be alright in the end.

00z ECMWF looking more progressive initially.

The lackluster SE ridge on the GFS is due to upstream differences. I wouldn't say it's the culprit, rather it's more of a consequence of the disorganized upstream block.

Haha, what a whacky clown range GFS run, especially over Siberia and the NPAC.

It looks fine to me. Just a bit disorganized to start.

My thoughts haven't changed. I think this is mostly a tease. Will still be a cooler than average pattern, but I believe late December has a much higher chance at sexiness.

I gave my thoughts on the matter Friday evening. I suspect the early December stuff is more of a "tease", with better potential for a significant Arctic blast (-EPO/-AO type pattern) sometime around the Holidays into early January, followed by a warmer/ridgier pattern for a few weeks thereafter. Then I think another potential window exists towards the end of January, into February. The late December blast might slide east of the Rockies, but I think the February pattern will argue against that happening again..

This run should be notably better than the 18z.

A few of my posts from last night, FWIW:

Lol, I was here rambling away both last night and the night before, when those nice-looking 00z GFS suites came in. It's not my fault the modeling sucked today.

Then you haven't been paying attention, because this is wildly inaccurate. No offense intended. Also, I've been swamped with work. I can't spend hours upon hours here when I have a slew of exams upcoming and long workdays.

Yeah, the d11-15 18z GEFS looks super familiar. Each of the last three winters have featured this dominant pattern at one point or another. Hudson Bay vortex/+NAO, -EPO/-PNA, anchored under a strong PV aloft. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/3F97737B-36A9-4EB3-84DC-09F39B7C77D2_zpso7ggnnq3.gif