Phil

I'm leaning towards a February climax. If that fails, I then agree with your thoughts here.

It's still weird looking to me.

Lol. Once those first flakes start falling, nothing is enough.

Posted this in the other thread unknowing of the existence of this one. Here's the 500mb difference between the ECMWF and GFS. Note the increased GOA vorticity on the ECMWF vs the GFS. That's going to lead to a warmer solution during the second half of the run most likely, at least relative to the GFS. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/93CB0B49-F252-4EC6-A344-0C15C4819473_zpsehs5zgit.png

Here's the 500mb difference between the ECMWF and GFS. Note the increased GOA vorticity on the ECMWF vs the GFS. That's going to lead to a warmer solution during the second half of the run. So..meh. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/93CB0B49-F252-4EC6-A344-0C15C4819473_zpsehs5zgit.png

Wavebreak cycles way too far west this run.

Yeah, but this is super-BS IMO. At least in regards to the NPAC in week 2.

What hell is going on w/ the NPAC wavetrain in the LR?

That's a lot of cold air in west-central Canada in the clown range.

Yeah, I'm no fun. Lol.

It should be noted that the parallel weeklies aren't quite as nice looking, though they're still bullish on the -EPO/-NAO through week six.

That's a beautiful-looking block in the clown range there. Right over Alaska upon maturity..doesn't get more perfect than that. Meanwhile, it was 70 degrees and thundering here today. Ugh.

Thundering pretty loudly this morning.

That's an "average" strength PV, at least in terms of the U-wind component @ 10mb/65N. Not a huge factor either way, though a weaker vortex would possibly be more ideal.

One thing that's bugging me is the EPS mean has trended weaker with the NPAC/AK blocking for 5 consecutive runs, to the point where Aleutian/AK troughing returns on the latest run during the 11-15 day range. Also, there's a signal for a Scandinavian trough, which is a classic precursor to a strong +AO/+EPO, especially when coupled with a weak/flat NPAC ridge (which looks to occur as well, according to the EPS mean). Might have to wait until the holidays for the next EPO dump.

This run isn't going to be very sexy in the LR.

Sounds thrilling. I'll be spending the day cutting down a client's old, sickly White Pine that succumbed to blister rust in October. Yolo!

Seriously? Man, you guys really are suffering.

By d9, every state in the US is colder than average on the Euro. This includes HI, AK, CA, WA, FL, ME, and everywhere else.

Fred hacked the Euro.

Euro jumped over 100 miles east with that cutoff low in the SW. Still a prolific bias for that model at times.

Thanks a bunch.

Did you calculate these average yourself from NCDC? Or is there a more convenient aggregate of data somewhere? I want to calculate IAD's average. I assume it's in the single digits but am not sure what the exact number is.

**Average coldest**. Not absolute coldest.