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Everything posted by Phil
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There's water falling from the sky..what the heck is going on?!
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We all need it badly. Terrible situation ongoing in Gatlinburg TN. Wildfire there is so out of control it's producing its own "weather" now, with winds over 80mph and temperatures up to 120 degrees occurring downtown.
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I gave my thoughts on the matter Friday evening. I suspect the early December stuff is more of a "tease", with better potential for a significant Arctic blast (-EPO/-AO type pattern) sometime around the Holidays into early January, followed by a warmer/ridgier pattern for a few weeks thereafter. Then I think another potential window exists towards the end of January, into February. The late December blast might slide east of the Rockies, but I think the February pattern will argue against that happening again..
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Yeah, the d11-15 18z GEFS looks super familiar. Each of the last three winters have featured this dominant pattern at one point or another. Hudson Bay vortex/+NAO, -EPO/-PNA, anchored under a strong PV aloft. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/3F97737B-36A9-4EB3-84DC-09F39B7C77D2_zpso7ggnnq3.gif