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Phil

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Everything posted by Phil

  1. Watch what happens if that flat Aleutian ridge decides to stick around for awhile. For the sake of this forum, I hope it doesn't.
  2. Well, the EA measures one of the dominant modes of atmospheric circulation within the NATL domain, like an Atlantic counterpart to the PNA in some respects. You'd expect some coherence w/ global temperatures given the Hadley Cell expansions are a conduit for significant extratropical warming regardless of the reason(s) for the expansion, and these circulatory changes are responsible for some of the "issues" we've been discussing here as of late.
  3. Saw this discussed on Twitter earlier and think it's pertinent to this discussion. Another artifact of the modern day climatological boundary state is the increasingly positive East Atlantic Pattern. We're currently observing record breaking positive values, and have been for the last several years. Note how it abruptly switched modes in the late 1970s, in tandem with the great Hadley Cell shift and Pacific climate shift that occurred at the same time: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/8F585BD5-3D8D-4BF7-9E65-E525E6AA8934_zps2id2dbtd.jpg
  4. Poor wording. Meaning, an amplified aleutian ridge without a notably strong EPO component or deep anticyclonic wavebreak in the vicinity. That was almost solely a -PNA driven winter, something that probably cannot happen today, IMO.
  5. Another conduit is actually achieved via the Aleutian low induced WAFz/PV perturbations (think DEC 2009, NOV 2014, etc). This is arguably easier to achieve in the modern Hadley Cell era, however this sort of event is often quick and/or can slide east of the Rockies more easily. Events like 1955/56 w/ the modest Aleutian ridge amplification are nearly impossible under today's Hadley/Walker state(s).
  6. Huge misconception here, IMO. Flat Aleutian ridging destructively interferes with the processes that lead to the necessary amplification. It's a huge negative. The amplification occurs when that boundary state is perturbed externally, often via changes in the E-HEM circulation which induce east-Asian mountain/gravity wave drag torques. This then leads to the changes in the NPAC.
  7. That's probably true, haha. I've just seen so many beautiful hemisphere-scale wavetrain progressions ruined by them. It doesn't affect my winter climo or anything, but I'd much rather have an anomalous hemispheric wavetrain and perturbed PV than a mundane, flat process like we've seen over the last few winters.
  8. Definitely a better look than what we have currently. I'm just terrified of flat NPAC ridging in general. It's the primary +EPO loading pattern, and it inhibits poleward propagating vertical wave activity fluxes, which are required to keep the PV/NAM in check. Amplified, poleward biased NPAC ridging is another story.
  9. You looking at the same ensemble run I am? The Aleutian ridge has trended flatter in four consecutive runs. That's all that's going to matter in the long run, assuming it verifies.
  10. It's definitely Arctic, just nothing extraordinarily cold given the PV column is on the other side of the pole, and the fact that we'll still be recovering from the (ongoing) Pacific hose job. I also don't like how flat the EPS mean gets with the Aleutian ridge in the long range. That's the perfect loading pattern for another GOA vortex. Really, there's nothing more dangerous that a flat Aleutian ridge, IMO. Can be a very self-reinforcing pattern, as we've seen over the last 7+ weeks.
  11. The overall setup is great, in my opinion. Just need to build up some cold air on our side of the pole.
  12. It was absolutely a +PNA month. Classic waveguide, and the integration of AAM across the NH was in perfect synchronicity with the expected loading pattern. Please let it go.
  13. 00z GFS is about to develop a healthy EPO block I think. No coincidence we lose the GOA vortex right as we lose the stagnant Maritime forcing, IMO.
  14. I respect your opinion and digress. It's straightforward in my opinion, but that doesn't mean I'm right.
  15. Interesting convective state upcoming. Not a classic Niña look. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/DEB176E9-F331-46F0-ADBE-FBD811E6921C_zpseytaa24b.png
  16. Please stop denying what was clearly a +PNA in synchronicity with a stout +AAM integral. It's irritating. There's a reason we changed the calculations. The new formula is more domainal my consistent w/ regards to the NPAC itself, with less emphasis on peripherals.
  17. You guys haven't had a freeze yet?? Holy smokes. When does your first freeze typically occur?
  18. We warmed 20+ degrees in 2hrs this morning as the downsloping N/NW winds kicked in. Went from 38 to 58.
  19. Just to rehash, the October AO came in at -1.917, smashing the previous record of -1.540 set back in 2009. No Niña years come anywhere close to this. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/3D431830-8E55-4AB9-8134-D98AF507D522_zpsyc2a7gho.png
  20. Talk about a shake-up. Very nice! If this doesn't do the trick in the NPAC, I'm not sure what will. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/vp850.anom.30.5S-5N.gif
  21. Uh, 08/09 was most definitely a Niña. In fact, I'd argue it was easily more of a Niña than this year. More coherent Niña convective cell, globally integrated -AAM bias was solid as well.
  22. It does, minus the oddball decade of the 1980s. December just doesn't produce cold like it used to, before the dustbowl era. I guess the same could be said about January. Meanwhile, February and March have been smashing records left and right. Some of the most ancient, presumed-untouchable records, both in the temperature and snowfall department, have fallen in recent years.
  23. Yeah, this is getting absurd. I remember when autumn storm systems used to roll through every week. The last few years have been f**king pathetic.
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