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Everything posted by Phil
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Nice. Juno Beach cam is a good one too: http://www.beachcamsusa.com/fl/juno-beach/juno-beach-pier-surf-cam Jacksonville is the one I'm watching since it's a good proxy for Saint Simons GA: http://www.jaxpiercam.com There's some other ones on Surfline.com that provide live wave heights and wind speeds + local forecasts: http://www.surfline.com/surf-report/jacksonville-beach-florida_125267/
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Similar story here, we fly down every summer. I've been to Saint Simons every year (except one) since I was 4yrs old, so this one is a gut punch. That place is like a second home to me. Unfortunately I chickened out and decided not to go after seeing the latest modeling and reading the JAX warning. Since no one would go with me, I just didn't want to take the risk.
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Charley? That was a nasty one, made landfall as a Cat4. FWIW, HiRes 12z GFS takes Matthew inland over NE FL/SE GA as an apparent Cat3. F**k. Almost have to root for a full landfall in FL somewhere to prevent destruction up the coast. Still, my worry is that the core will hug the coast, as small core systems sometimes do given adequate differential friction.
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Yeah I'm honestly more worried about surge than wind, given the funnel effect of the coastal topography. Can be the real pill if you're not careful..prolonged NE fetch on this one. https://www.wunderground.com/MAR/AM/450.html?MR=1 The strongest storm I've ever experienced was Cat3 Wilma in Miami Dade County back in '05, and those winds paralleled the intercoastal waterway so surge wasn't a huge deal.
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I know the topography of that area like the back of my hand. Experienced a bunch of storms there...Fay, Floyd, Tammy, even the outer bands of Katrina. I usually head down there when a hurricane threatens, and given its a tiny town, everyond knows me as that crazy hurricane guy. That said, I have never experienced a storm quite like this one, though, so that's the only reason I'm hesitant. My usual chasing partners (gf and cousin) refuse to go with me this time, and I don't like chasing alone.
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There's more than just those two (1942, 1988). Years like 2010/11 and 2013/14 had some October ridging/warmth. October 2010 is an exceptional match this far. You guys *almost* scored huge that January..pattern was just a tad too zonal but small tweaks and it would've been an amazing January snowfall event bookended by two separate Arctic blasts, one in November and the other in February. I'm not worried at all. You guys will do fine, while I sit under a SE ridge, watching jealously.