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Phil

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Everything posted by Phil

  1. If I were to attempt this line of reasoning, Tim/Dewey et al would be all up in my space about it, considering I don't live there. It's a lose-lose for me either way.
  2. Most guidance keeps it just offshore. These storms wobble quite frequently, so it's honestly up in the air at this point. New forecasts have 30-40ft waves near the SE GA coast with breakers over 25 feet. This on top of a surge that's 7-14ft above ground. Yikes.
  3. I see gloomy, murky, rainy days in your future. Depressing stuff.
  4. Nice. Juno Beach cam is a good one too: http://www.beachcamsusa.com/fl/juno-beach/juno-beach-pier-surf-cam Jacksonville is the one I'm watching since it's a good proxy for Saint Simons GA: http://www.jaxpiercam.com There's some other ones on Surfline.com that provide live wave heights and wind speeds + local forecasts: http://www.surfline.com/surf-report/jacksonville-beach-florida_125267/
  5. Here are some live streaming hurricane Matthew beachside cameras. Will get very interesting at many of these locations: http://www.mybeachcams.com/florida/northeast/
  6. Similar story here, we fly down every summer. I've been to Saint Simons every year (except one) since I was 4yrs old, so this one is a gut punch. That place is like a second home to me. Unfortunately I chickened out and decided not to go after seeing the latest modeling and reading the JAX warning. Since no one would go with me, I just didn't want to take the risk.
  7. Yeah, I was down there as a kid during Floyd, and traveled down with extended family during the other two. We had a place down there until 2010.
  8. Wunderground is decent, but the radarscope app is unbeatable IMO.
  9. Charley? That was a nasty one, made landfall as a Cat4. FWIW, HiRes 12z GFS takes Matthew inland over NE FL/SE GA as an apparent Cat3. F**k. Almost have to root for a full landfall in FL somewhere to prevent destruction up the coast. Still, my worry is that the core will hug the coast, as small core systems sometimes do given adequate differential friction.
  10. Video like this are what give me second thoughts. This was taken during hurricane Andrew in 1992. Apparently this was on the weaker side of the eyewall..can't imagine how bad it was on the north side.
  11. Yeah I'm honestly more worried about surge than wind, given the funnel effect of the coastal topography. Can be the real pill if you're not careful..prolonged NE fetch on this one. https://www.wunderground.com/MAR/AM/450.html?MR=1 The strongest storm I've ever experienced was Cat3 Wilma in Miami Dade County back in '05, and those winds paralleled the intercoastal waterway so surge wasn't a huge deal.
  12. I know the topography of that area like the back of my hand. Experienced a bunch of storms there...Fay, Floyd, Tammy, even the outer bands of Katrina. I usually head down there when a hurricane threatens, and given its a tiny town, everyond knows me as that crazy hurricane guy. That said, I have never experienced a storm quite like this one, though, so that's the only reason I'm hesitant. My usual chasing partners (gf and cousin) refuse to go with me this time, and I don't like chasing alone.
  13. I'm probably driving down to Saint Simons today, booked a hotel room and everything. If that area is going under, I'm going under with it.
  14. The upper level pattern ended up almost exactly as I thought, however my knowledge of surface temperature dynamics in the PNW is fairly weak, so I'm not happy with my performance in that regard.
  15. During the transition maybe. Would occur between the 20th and the 30th, should it happen.
  16. The 12z EPS is hinting at a pattern change towards the end of week 2. Starts to weaken/retrograde the GOA vortex, similar to how the weeklies do.
  17. Que the Saw theme song: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/E1A0D70A-B057-455B-A00B-42941D2C109E_zpsesz0bulf.jpg
  18. Here's what October 2010 looked like. Very similar. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/62E0F8B9-6168-40B0-B3E9-059C7BCAE689_zpsriwuifw2.jpg http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/B451BE96-8A58-4A6A-BF9D-616B890FD3DB_zpscfbx2xys.png
  19. There's more than just those two (1942, 1988). Years like 2010/11 and 2013/14 had some October ridging/warmth. October 2010 is an exceptional match this far. You guys *almost* scored huge that January..pattern was just a tad too zonal but small tweaks and it would've been an amazing January snowfall event bookended by two separate Arctic blasts, one in November and the other in February. I'm not worried at all. You guys will do fine, while I sit under a SE ridge, watching jealously.
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