Phil

All weak -ENSO/+QBO winters since 1950 include: 1959/60, 1961/62, 1964/65, 1966/67, 1978/79, 1985/86, 1995/96, 2008/09, and 2013/14. Just FWIW. Most of these years were raging +PV/+NAM in October. Obviously, this year isn't following that trajectory so far.

Eliminating -QBO years leaves us with nothing except a borderline 1967/68, which was still +QBO @ 50mb.

I've been watching November for awhile..2010 redux?

This would be impressive: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa_gefs.png

FYP. When I need my pizza fix, "The Georgetowner" by Manny & Olga's does the trick. Heaven in a box.

I'm thinking less of a NPAC jet, more -PNA/Aleutian ridging trying to develop this go around. Pattern is different over Eurasia.

So far I'm impressed with the magnitude of blocking observed this month. While its early still, I didn't expect significant blocking until November, and wouldn't have been surprised if it's waited until December/January. There really isn't much precedent for this in Niña/+QBO Octobers. Only a few cases, most recent being 2010/11. From there, you have to go way back, 1942/43 and 1959/60.

Pizza and wine..lol

Poleward propagation of vertical wave activity/heat fluxes into the polar upper troposphere/stratosphere. In other words, another round of PV weakening, continued high latitude blocking, jet suppression over most of the NH. Though this go around we have an initial retraction of the NPAC component, as opposed to an extension there. Probably less of an EPO contribution, more of an NAO contribution.

Another big shot coming up it looks like. ECMWF suite less enthusiastic but similar story. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/BB276442-A4D9-416C-8AD2-1E1AD083D9ED_zpsiqxodmyi.jpg

You've got that right. Not your typical Niña/+QBO look..strong poleward V-WAFs/EHEM MTs. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/017732CF-7770-4E6A-A191-5B85E19EC012_zpsxr3yslmn.gif

Yikes, look at the rotted heartwood in that thing. I'm surprised darwinism didn't do its dirty work sooner.

Colder, I think yes. Not sure about wetter.

Interesting how nature of the low frequency wavetrain has been to anticyclonically cycle over the NAO domain. Opposite of recent years. In fact, spatially speaking, this is nearly the perfect inverse of 2014/15, which was a historically anomalous +NAO winter.

Yeah I've noticed that our winters seem to cycle either on a 2yr periodicity, or a 3yr-to-1yr periodicity (three mild, one cold, or visa versa). As of late we've been in a two year cycle. Harsh winters in 2009/10 and 2010/11, mild winters in 2011/12 and 2012/13, harsh winters in 2013/14 and 2014/15, and mild winters in 2015/16 and 2016/17(?). Snowfall is a different story, though, and has more to do with storm track than temperature. Snowfall averages seem to fluctuate on decadal scales w/ longer term variations in the Hadley/Walker cell ratios and solar activity. I'm expecting some very harsh winters to close out this decade, as we come out of this multiyear Niña/cold neutral stretch during the heart of a deep solar minimum under a high NPAC/NATL Hadley Cell differential, but we'll have to get through at least one more mild winter (2016/17), and possibly a mild 2017/18 if it ends up being Niña/-QBO. If it goes neutral/-QBO, then the picture changes. As of now, I'm thinking 2018/19 and 2019/20 will be very harsh winters, with 2019/20 being your typical solar min niño response w/ blocking and consistent snowfall.

They were eventually cleared, but..yeah: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2829107/Scientists-jailed-manslaughter-did-not-predict-deadly-earthquake-Italy-killed-309-people-cleared.html

Two scientists were recently jailed for failing to predict an Earthquake. I don't think we've come very far.

"Leave laden"? Come on man, that's terrible.

What a blowtorch next week. Highs in the 80s? Yuck. Can already tell this is going to be another predominantly mild winter, though probably not as mild as last winter. Analogs suggest a behemoth Arctic shot is possible in January.

Tornado was (preliminarily) rated as an EF2 with winds between 120-130mph. I guess Tundra can claim victory after all.

Typhoons don't have to recurve to influence the NPAC pattern. It's all about the timing of the predecessor WAFs, IMO.

Looking at that photo it appears a ground-floor chunk of that house was taken out. Can't tell if it was a porch or a part of the house itself. Can also see the building behind that pine tree has a portion of its roof ripped off.

At least an EF1 there, maybe EF2 but hard to tell without more peripheral shots.

Holy smokes. That'd be a big day even by our standards.

Trees are running late this year. Still not much in the way of color around here. October looks to be the 5th consecutive warmer than average month across the region. Would also make the last 15/17 months warmer than average..quite the warm period we've entered. In other news, hoping for some weather next week. Looks like a cutoff low develops to our S/W on latest guidance. Would lead to another period of onshore flow and precipitation, but no signs of any persistent cool, canadian air in the pattern yet..