Phil

Both the GEFS and CMC ensembles agree on the return of the Niño-esque Pacific firehose pattern, into at least into early November. Can't say I'm a fan of it, either. Both ensemble suites resemble a freakin' super niño by day 16. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/C2C3E4F5-0B77-4DD6-BE20-AFC8F6718BC2_zpsemgoztcu.png http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/A19445C4-D4A9-455C-9CDF-01961090FD02_zpsmkmttb4x.png

Nice look @ 500mb as well. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/017732CF-7770-4E6A-A191-5B85E19EC012_zpsxr3yslmn.gif

Of course, once you get into weeks 4-6 on an ensemble mean, you're always going to have significant spread. I'd still argue there's a signal present, however. Want to get forcing to around 150E to oust that GOA vortex regime, IMO.

Here's what I have. Week three: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2FAD7F9D-C8D8-47F3-A142-362409C62BAA_zpsu8ujmepz.png Week four: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/C077B36D-FB3B-4F32-B79C-84F0DDEA8F93_zpstztcfygn.png Week five: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/1B52C768-6EBA-4591-8BE1-7A64484734AA_zpsrddrqxhn.png Week six: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/94923783-0014-4465-AF8B-726DD60A3436_zpsnvfpxxxc.png

I'm just using the CPC data. I think the daily calculations on the Aussie site are preliminary (w/ a different baseline too).

I'm seeing something different. Looks like a +PNA/GOA vortex pattern through November/into December.,not what I was/am expecting. If anything looks sort of Niño-esque. My personal thoughts are: GOA ridge develops in November and strengthens into December.

Probably coincidence, but the four most epic winters of my lifetime occurred in years where the sycamore trees were loaded with seed balls. Like, branches drooping under the weight. Very noticeable. This year, the sycamores are once again loaded with seed balls, maybe to a higher extent than I've ever seen before. Of course I'm predicting a mild east coast winter, but maybe the trees know something I don't.

The folklore I hear about includes the number of seed balls on sycamore trees, squirrel tails, wooly bear caterpillars, and the number of humid days in October.

A record high temperature (84 degrees) was set at Dulles today.

This has the vibes of a winter that'll be dominated by intraseasonal forcing(s), given the paltry lowfreq/ENSO forcing component. So, factors like QBO/strat, solar, and near/off-equator SSTA influences on convection will probably matter. The quiet IO/-IOD is a good example here..equatorward shift in the high there cooled the IO SSTAs hence the subsidence there.

Looks like October will finish with a moderately negative SOI value. A few values as low as -25 over the last week. Definitely not typical of a Niña fall/winter. Very weak background state as of late.

I never said that. I think it's too early to know. Feel free to make your own interpretations. Just go to ESRL and plot the relative meridional streamfunction anomalies. No need to rely on me.

Important in what context? It's a record breaking anomaly with (at least) near term/subseasonal consequences. Depending on the reason(s) for the anomaly, it could mean a number of things. Regardless, it's notable and probably worth watching in my opinion.

Depends. This is just Hadley Cell intensity, not latitude. Reduced off equator convective integral, sinking air more prevalent over the subtropics, stronger mid-latitude U-wind component (jet) in this case. This over the hemisphere as a whole, not necessarily locally, but still helpful w/ forward progression. Somewhat Niño-ish on a latitudinal basis, I guess, though spatial orientation of Pacific forcing by longitude certainly isn't Niñoish, rather more of a longitudinally contracted/intense Walker Cell.

Big shot into the strat next week on the GFS, FWIW: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa.png

So, about that NH Hadley Cell.. Credit for graph goes to Sam Lillo: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/F9984872-0035-410E-8467-B49FEF65F25C_zpsfvbac13i.jpg

Dewpoint hit 66 this morning. Kinda sucks for October. Currently 81.4/62.

Thanks. I do see your point, though. In the past I've paid the price for taking particular analog aggregates too literally at face value, particularly w/ the older years and even w/ modern stratospheric dynamics. There are definitely limits.

Personally, I've found analoging to be extremely helpful (on the large scale) when interpreted properly. Most of the analog aggregates I've used in recent years have demonstrated more predictive value than seasonal models, IMO. Just my own personal observation. At least when it comes to isolating behavioral tendencies under certain systematic boundary states, I definitely rely on analoging to get the best picture I can.

If I had to pick a group of analogs right now, I'd go with 2010/11, 1995/96, 1959/60 as primaries and 1961/62, 1983/84, 1967/68, and 2008/09 as secondaries.

You're thinking more than 10" @ PDX? Snowfall is such a fickle beast I'm not sure I'd go crazy with it, other than highlight potential for bigger totals. Lots of luck involved. Sometimes one storm will make or break a snowfall forecast.

All weak -ENSO/+QBO winters since 1950 include: 1959/60, 1961/62, 1964/65, 1966/67, 1978/79, 1985/86, 1995/96, 2008/09, and 2013/14. Just FWIW. Most of these years were raging +PV/+NAM in October. Obviously, this year isn't following that trajectory so far.

Eliminating -QBO years leaves us with nothing except a borderline 1967/68, which was still +QBO @ 50mb.

I've been watching November for awhile..2010 redux?

This would be impressive: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa_gefs.png