Phil

I think you're contradicting yourself, hence my initial confusion. Again, I don't really care, and I'm not sure why you're bringing this up now given I thought we'd finished discussing it. Let me explain why I disagree(d) with you. You indeed stated the dewpoint needed to drop below freezing, and conflated frozen water/dew (liquid) with frost formation at the frost point. Which I disagree with, contextually. Then you posted this, which made no sense to me: Except you were (literally) describing how frost is created, in your opinion, which I disagreed with. That's what his question was about, also. When I stated my disagreement, you said this: Wait, so do you agree, or disagree with me? I'm honestly very confused here.

Windstorms are awesome until you're sitting in the dark for days with trees down everywhere. After what happened here last February, I'm a lot more weary of aftermath. Landscape was changed permanently over most of the county. A bunch of pics: http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/854-east-coast-and-gulf-coast-weather-observations-for-2015/page-13

Niña forcing has been dominating since late August. Signs of a subtle shift upcoming, however. Contraction of the eastward flank of the Walker Cell is forecasted, however that -IOD cell just won't give an inch spatially. Should result in some EPAC warming and a bifurcation of that GOA vortex, as was anticipated between October 20th-25th. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/vp850.anom.30.5S-5N.gif Ideally I think we'll want get forcing to center at ~150E, for the best shot at a deep -EPO/-PNA in constructive feedback with the +QBO/strat and antecedent waveguide.

Yeah, it reverts to the very familiar +PNA/+NAO that's dominated the last several cold seasons. If we somehow get stuck with it again this winter, I'lol probably have to check myself into a psych ward.

You said you disagreed with me, sir. If you think the dewpoint needs to drop below 32F for frost formation, we disagree. If you think frost and frozen dew are the same thing, we disagree. Nothing wrong with that.

My prediction for a monthly ONI between -1.1C and -1.3C is looking somewhat better now.

Made it down to 37.2F this morning. Noticing fewer mosquitos and crickets around today as a result. Hard to believe it was 95 degrees a little over 3 weeks ago. As usual, summer's back was broken by a single early autumn storm system.

Well, the progressive analog date for 1962 is 10/14 on there, which is 4 days from now.

Man, that looks orgasmic. Similar to the ECMWF monthlies in December.

I apologize for that comment. It was out of line. However, I (still) vehemently disagree with your take on frost development.

I'm sure there are more, but I'm too lazy to dig them up tonight.

I've tried to lay back somewhat, though I probably could improve my conduct further (last night being an example). I've never had much of a filter, I guess.

Yeah, plenty of them. Years like 1978/79, 1961/62, 2008/09, 1983/84, 1984/85, 1988/89, etc, were all cold in the NW and Midwest.

Is that actually why he was banned? I thought it was his blowup with Tim or something.

"Abusing" you? Grow a pair, dude.

Why are we still talking about the blob as if it's a pattern driver? Makes me want to pull my hair out.

He's an east coast weenie with a cold fetish. Don't hold your breath in that one. I will say this about JB. Bias aside, his pattern recognition skills are pretty d**n good in the deterministic range (out ~ 2-3 weeks). If you can look past his flaws, his take on nearer term pattern progression isn't that bad.

My goodness, so sorry to hear. My thoughts, prayers, and condolences.

Jesse no longer has an account here?

GEFS also suggests the vortex takes another hit in the long range. These are crucial developmental stages, so perhaps the beast will be on seditives this winter. Never a given, though. Keep in mind the zonal winds are climatologically strengthening at this time of year, so the long range depiction by the GEFS is notable. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa_gefs.png

Haha, wow. D15 (360hr) GEFS looks like something out of the Maunder Minimum. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/64D72F81-0FB9-462F-8F77-ED3E8BADD400_zpsyssuxvuf.gif

If the October AO averages solidly negative (below -0.4 on the NOAA/CPC calculation), then it'd statistically guarantee a negative AO winter, given a -ENSO/+QBO background. Since 1950, there are no coherent -ENSO/+QBO Octobers featuring solidly negative AOs that failed to reproduce the negative AOs during N/D/J/F/M.

I'm worried about a major ice storm or two this winter. I suspect the pattern will be highly conducive for CAD/overrunning at times w/ that WATL ridge nosing in at times from the NE. As I alluded to earlier, I also suspect this will be a variable winter, with powerful arctic shots and mild periods occurring on a relatively frequent basis. Basically the opposite of last winter, which was more of the stagnant type.

Yeah, 00z is back to the blocky solution w/ a weak PV. Good ensemble agreement too.

They're totally different, both visually and physically speaking. - "Frozen dew" requires sub-freezing temperatures and looks glassy/translucent, like your typical ice accretion via freezing rain. Hence if anything you'd be looking at a freeze warning, not a frost advisory, and really it's not something that occurs very often anyway given sublimation rates. - "Frost" forms at the frost point, with temperatures/dewpoints often above 32 degrees. It has an obvious, "snowy" look to it, and isn't related whatsoever. Freezing dew is basically like freezing a puddle of water.