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Everything posted by Phil

  1. Yes, I suspect ENSO will warm at least into solid weak territory, though I suspect the event will be basin-wide in the means. The problem has been an elongated Walker Cell, enhanced by residual westerlies at/below 50mb from previous QBO and broad Hadley Cells (solar max phenomenon). This regime is now collapsing, abruptly. http://catchmypicture.com/f/s9G0ba/640.jpg http://catchmypicture.com/f/gyhAEb/800.jpg
  2. Looks like solar may be dropping off a bit now. If it decides to plunge, look out!
  3. I'm apathetic at this point, lol. Might as well be shooting a corpse..I'm done We're probably going to slip back into La Niña for 2016. However, the method I'm using is beginning to get noisy as the developing climate shift is already making itself known in the global circulations...it might be a weirdly timed ENSO progression. I'll know more by February/March.
  4. I thought I did that. Any deeper and it'd be analogous to asking why the electric force exists...how am I supposed to know that?
  5. The 1968-69 analog is unique (there are a few peer reviewed papers on the stratospheric anomalies in that year, actually). Autumn of 1968 witnessed a huge drop off in solar, forcing an early Canadian Warming (Western-Hemispheric Wave Breaker during developmental stages of the PV). Quite a rare phenomenon (especially nowadays).
  6. Well there was a WWB last week...Walker Cell is currently very weak/east based as well...MJO phase diagrams can be misleading as they also pick up on CCKW activity. Overall, we're in a Niño regime and will probably be for awhile.
  7. Welcome back. Yeah I'm not too concerned with small fluctuations in Niño 3.4 SSTs. I'm focused on the forcings driving them.
  8. Yeah, highly doubt you'll have to worry about a shut-out. Should be one or two windows of exciting winter wx. Questions all involve timing.
  9. Thanks for the input. BDC = Brewer Dobson Circulation EPF = Eliassen Palm Flux TAM = Tropical-tropopausal Angular Momentum (Branstrator Wave) PVA = Polar Vortex (Anomaly) "Beefy", as in larger in size, relative to average
  10. Move if this in the wrong thread. Thx in advance. Basic idea is, whether or not we actually see a Niño per CPC definition, the atmosphere is behaving as if we were in one (weak/unstable Walker Cell, poleward AAM propagation). We also have a maturing -QBO and a relatively active solar flux. The Sun is the wild card, as activity may be strong enough to pull the EPF equatorialward & reduce BDC efficiency. With that in mind, I have these analogs in mind (all of which have problems), that may or may not apply during certain forcing intervals: 1958-59 1968-69 1979-80 2003-04 2006-07 2009-10 My forecast: [Edit, Modified November Outlook] November 15 - December 25th, +/- 10 days at end of interval: Ridge breaks into Alaska sometime in mid/late November, which will re-introduce polar air into the lower-48, at least for a time. However, poleward AAM propagation/E-biased MJO/tropics forcing (Beefy EPAC Hadley Cell) suggests that bouts of classic Nino (+AAM, NPAC-troughing, central US warmth) may pop up through December. Stationary waves/eddy flux will amplify, however, and begin to bombard the PV towards the Holiday Season. December 25th - January 30th, +/- 15 days at end of interval: Cyclonic Wave breaking, Nino/-QBO forced BDC/Shear will likely force a heavy SSW event within 15 days of the Holiday season. This is when we'll see the true -AO regime take over, and legitimate Arctic air enter the country. This is also the best chance for the PNW to take part in an Arctic blast...during th initial stages of the regime shift. A major MJO wave will probably erupt in response to the SSW collapsing the TAM and cooling the equatorial upper troposohere/lower stratosphere. This will also mark the end of the crazy, tropically-governed NPAC/Western North American ridge regime that has dominated since January of 2013. Though ridging may persist in the West for a bit longer in the means, its "funding source" will be cut. January 30th - February 28th, +/- 20 days at end of interval: Given the nature -QBO, strong BDC, & Niño-esque tropical forcing, I also favor a -AO/+PNA during this time, with a strong Aleutian low still possible. Generally cooler than normal over the Eastern US, while the rest of the nation will be dependent on the location of the NPAC low & the location of the PVA-appendage. I might update this if something new flares up. Hope I do okay.
  11. Mostly tropical forcings, weak Walker Cell & a lack of W-PAC subsidence. Favors a beefy Hadley Cell in summer, and a bias towards an Aleutian Low for fall/winter. In other words, a Niño regime.
  12. Andrew has totally misinterpreted the JANSTEC ENSO forecast. It's going with +0.9C in its mean.
  13. You mean unfavorable?
  14. Antarctic ice extent has once again reached an all time high, breaking the previous all-time record set in 2013 by 48,000km: http://catchmypicture.com/f/C0P5bg/800.jpg http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/09/13/new-all-time-satellite-era-record-for-antarctic-sea-ice-extent/
  15. We've got another 1-3 years. Around 2016-2018 is when I'm anticipating the drop.
  16. You're just relentless. Maybe clarify your questions, specifically? - Niño circulation? - Blocking? - Pineapple Express?
  17. Not good, could really deplete polar O^3 and strengthen the PV if it continues. With a Niño circulation in the NPAC, PNW desperately needs blocking to avoid getting pineappled.
  18. Who is Dr. Scvedoik, exactly? If he's in atmospheric science, then...just wow.
  19. Just for that, I'm rooting for a western ridge like no other. Maybe PDX can hit 90 in January?
  20. "Might as well move to North Bend" Looks like Dewey got his propaganda out through Chris. Congrats!
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