Move if this in the wrong thread. Thx in advance. Basic idea is, whether or not we actually see a Niño per CPC definition, the atmosphere is behaving as if we were in one (weak/unstable Walker Cell, poleward AAM propagation). We also have a maturing -QBO and a relatively active solar flux. The Sun is the wild card, as activity may be strong enough to pull the EPF equatorialward & reduce BDC efficiency. With that in mind, I have these analogs in mind (all of which have problems), that may or may not apply during certain forcing intervals: 1958-59 1968-69 1979-80 2003-04 2006-07 2009-10 My forecast: [Edit, Modified November Outlook] November 15 - December 25th, +/- 10 days at end of interval: Ridge breaks into Alaska sometime in mid/late November, which will re-introduce polar air into the lower-48, at least for a time. However, poleward AAM propagation/E-biased MJO/tropics forcing (Beefy EPAC Hadley Cell) suggests that bouts of classic Nino (+AAM, NPAC-troughing, central US warmth) may pop up through December. Stationary waves/eddy flux will amplify, however, and begin to bombard the PV towards the Holiday Season. December 25th - January 30th, +/- 15 days at end of interval: Cyclonic Wave breaking, Nino/-QBO forced BDC/Shear will likely force a heavy SSW event within 15 days of the Holiday season. This is when we'll see the true -AO regime take over, and legitimate Arctic air enter the country. This is also the best chance for the PNW to take part in an Arctic blast...during th initial stages of the regime shift. A major MJO wave will probably erupt in response to the SSW collapsing the TAM and cooling the equatorial upper troposohere/lower stratosphere. This will also mark the end of the crazy, tropically-governed NPAC/Western North American ridge regime that has dominated since January of 2013. Though ridging may persist in the West for a bit longer in the means, its "funding source" will be cut. January 30th - February 28th, +/- 20 days at end of interval: Given the nature -QBO, strong BDC, & Niño-esque tropical forcing, I also favor a -AO/+PNA during this time, with a strong Aleutian low still possible. Generally cooler than normal over the Eastern US, while the rest of the nation will be dependent on the location of the NPAC low & the location of the PVA-appendage. I might update this if something new flares up. Hope I do okay.