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Posts posted by Phil
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The 00z GFS and its ensembles looks pretty typical for October, on the wetter end of things...Reading anymore into it than that is pretty infantile.
Kind of beating the Nino thing into the ground, Phil. Especially considering even you claim that you don't think we're going into one.
No one is "reading anymore into it". It's just a simple highlighting of emergent intraseasonal behaviors associated with typically inverse stimuli, hence why it's fascinating to me.
How/why these seemingly systematic behaviors emerge is one of the great mysteries of sub-seasonal meteorology.
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This is funny, because current SSTAs are almost perfectly opposite. This is a good illustration of the distinction between the systematic background state, and intraseasonal forcing/feedback.
The SSTAs don't constrain the atmosphere to a high frequency degree. They only constrain the lower frequency background tendencies.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png
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Just to highlight the Niño-ish nature of the forecasted pattern, here is the aggregate of the aforementioned years:
http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/7390CC9B-2E4A-4B38-95F5-250A6420FEE7_zpssp5oxakh.png
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Four Ninos, three Ninas, and three neutral. Seems pretty equally weighted to me.
A lot of those were pretty dramatically wet early fall periods for our region, though. Seems to be the theme. Otherwise the "Nino" signatures with the CPC anaogs is going to shift repeatedly.
There's five Niños, actually, with two warm-neutrals and three Niñas. Easily leans Niño, IMO.
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To further add to the strangeness we are supposed to be in a continued strong trade wind burst at least through the 8th.
Yeah, notable bi-hemispheric AAM disparity. The bifurcated tropical forcing is trying to pull us into a +EPO/+PNA, while the polar/NAM state is resisting it.
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So, are we heading for a Nino?
No, just a peculiar intraseasonal regime upcoming, which is also evidence of the weak/unstable background state. I'm always interested when brand new/unusual developments arise..it's a great learning opportunity.
On Twitter, we've refer to the weirdness this year as "2016ing", haha. Was sort of inspired by the QBO craziness that started back in May.
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The operational is certainly better than that. Interestingly 1984 and 2003 both went on to have late October Arctic outbreaks here.
Well, this is centered on d11, but spans +/- 2 weeks on either side. Definitely notable that 5/10 years were mod/strong Niños, while 7/10 were +ENSO.
1997-98, 1965-66, 1963-64, 1994-95, 1953-54, etc. Just funny.
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Lol @ the 00z GFS analogs..it's a Niño party.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif
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The 0z GFS looks a bit better. The trough axis is a bit further east during week two which keeps the NW chillier and makes for higher pressure / heights over the Western GOA.
Tries to break down the flat ridge over the Central NPAC, but can't finish it off. That thing has to go if ridging is to return over the GOA/EPO domain.
This pattern gives me the jitters because it can self-sustain to an amazing degree. It's probably the most difficult pattern to break.
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I feel like a lot of the analysis on here is extremely short sighted and overly reactionary.
Sort of like your short-sighted reactions to every CFS wobble?
Give me a break.
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I'm a bit puzzled also.
He's a rabid CFS hugger. Apparently our analysis is "terrible" because the CFS shows Niño3.4 cooling by 0.17C over the next 8 weeks? I don't get it.
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No seriously reading this thread is like reading a trainwreck. Some very positive trends on the CFS as a NINA is concerned.
I think the CFS is more of a trainwreck than this forum could ever hope to be.
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Looks like the 00z GFS is going to try and break down that "flat ridge" south of the Aleutians in the clown range. That'd be a step in the right direction.
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Just absolutely pathetic analysis.
Attempt at sarcastic humor? I honestly can't tell.
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00z GFS dramatically weakens the offshore ULL, but that central US trough is more progressive with a northward base, so it flings it out before the phase.
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OT, but check out this awesome photo of sprites associated with hurricane Matthew. Some researchers theorize this activity can predict storm evolution.
http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/B5755E99-AFA6-411A-883C-7A239772DD80_zpsgrzdn3ai.jpg
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The commentary on here is just stupid.
Stupid how?
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I'm not a huge fan of the way week two is shaping up. About three weeks earlier than I wanted to see that pattern.
Me neither, but it's probably an intraseasonal excursion, rather than a reflection of the background state. Hopefully we'll keep that vortex out of Alaska, and keep geopotential heights high over the Siberian side of the Arctic.
That said, the background state itself is quite strange/unstable, so how things evolve this winter is anyone's guess.
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Mathew is being a tease. One run it looks like it could be some tropical fun for the Mid Atlantic, another it is spinning in the ocean.
It's a tug-of-war between the Central US trough and the cutoff ULL over the NATL. I think the US trough is gonna win, but that doesn't mean Matthew will make a Mid-Atlantic landfall. Need the trough to negatively tilt w/ an axis to the SW of Matthew to really yank it in.
Though then again, it doesn't have to make direct landfall to wreak havoc. Irene tracked right along the coast yet still delivered sustained winds between 40-50mph @ DCA, with gusts between 60-80mph everywhere along/east of the Fall Line.
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For the fun of it, here's Sep/Oct during the last 3 super niños.
Looks a tad familiar, doesn't it?
http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/692B53CF-D028-4056-9827-3C958AE309D5_zpsohh7fn5y.png
Now here's the d10-15 GEFS. Haha. Except for the opposite NAO signal, the upcoming pattern looks like a carbon copy of the Sep/Oct Super Niño analogs.
http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/F867F1F4-1044-4969-A901-9D2647DCD294_zpsesuwa25y.gif
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Same thing in hovmoller format. The convection around 120E is classic Niña, as is the dateline subsidence, however, the additional convection along/east of 120W is more typical of a Niño.
There was a notable mid-September shift along/east of 60E, as well.
http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/4BA35DB8-218A-4BB4-9E85-C08A222D1516_zpsry1fdf3c.gif
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Now the GEFS forecast..lol. There's some resemblance to the climatological Niña forcing around 120E, but the WHEM forcing is dominating, similar to that of a Niño, except very east-biased.
http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/B62E95F4-A302-41E4-AC15-DAB2C71FE651_zpsqgsrwyco.png
http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2B4D56DA-1372-4F1C-82E7-5051E52FCEA6_zpsoxwrkpm6.png
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Can't really call this a Niño cell, but it's certainly weird looking.
All coherent Niña cells since the 1970s:
http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/EF509581-C0F5-47F2-95EC-399BE4588F23_zpsvljdyurg.png
Most clear/coherent Niño cells since the 1970s:
http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/1CDBE7A7-76BB-44AA-A3E2-A0B685A55B73_zpsmyunvs6k.png
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Is there any precedent for this being an issue?
Unfortunately, since adequate observations began, there's no precedence for a winter background state featuring subsidence over both the IO/MT and WPAC, and if there was, I'd expect to find it in a strong east based Niño.
So, just have to lol.
October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest
in West of the Rockies
Posted
Of course they'll change, that wasn't the point I was making (or at least was trying to make). I guess this probably isn't the right thread to discuss it, though.
Oh, and just to clarify, in no way, shape, or form am I anticipating anything resembling a Niño this winter.