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Phil

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Posts posted by Phil

  1. The 00z GFS and its ensembles looks pretty typical for October, on the wetter end of things...Reading anymore into it than that is pretty infantile.

    Kind of beating the Nino thing into the ground, Phil. Especially considering even you claim that you don't think we're going into one.

    No one is "reading anymore into it". It's just a simple highlighting of emergent intraseasonal behaviors associated with typically inverse stimuli, hence why it's fascinating to me.

     

    How/why these seemingly systematic behaviors emerge is one of the great mysteries of sub-seasonal meteorology.

  2. This is funny, because current SSTAs are almost perfectly opposite. This is a good illustration of the distinction between the systematic background state, and intraseasonal forcing/feedback.

     

    The SSTAs don't constrain the atmosphere to a high frequency degree. They only constrain the lower frequency background tendencies.

     

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

  3. So, are we heading for a Nino?

    No, just a peculiar intraseasonal regime upcoming, which is also evidence of the weak/unstable background state. I'm always interested when brand new/unusual developments arise..it's a great learning opportunity.

     

    On Twitter, we've refer to the weirdness this year as "2016ing", haha. Was sort of inspired by the QBO craziness that started back in May.

  4. The 0z GFS looks a bit better. The trough axis is a bit further east during week two which keeps the NW chillier and makes for higher pressure / heights over the Western GOA.

    Tries to break down the flat ridge over the Central NPAC, but can't finish it off. That thing has to go if ridging is to return over the GOA/EPO domain.

     

    This pattern gives me the jitters because it can self-sustain to an amazing degree. It's probably the most difficult pattern to break.

  5. I'm not a huge fan of the way week two is shaping up. About three weeks earlier than I wanted to see that pattern.

    Me neither, but it's probably an intraseasonal excursion, rather than a reflection of the background state. Hopefully we'll keep that vortex out of Alaska, and keep geopotential heights high over the Siberian side of the Arctic.

     

    That said, the background state itself is quite strange/unstable, so how things evolve this winter is anyone's guess.

  6. Mathew is being a tease. One run it looks like it could be some tropical fun for the Mid Atlantic, another it is spinning in the ocean.

    It's a tug-of-war between the Central US trough and the cutoff ULL over the NATL. I think the US trough is gonna win, but that doesn't mean Matthew will make a Mid-Atlantic landfall. Need the trough to negatively tilt w/ an axis to the SW of Matthew to really yank it in.

     

    Though then again, it doesn't have to make direct landfall to wreak havoc. Irene tracked right along the coast yet still delivered sustained winds between 40-50mph @ DCA, with gusts between 60-80mph everywhere along/east of the Fall Line.

  7. For the fun of it, here's Sep/Oct during the last 3 super niños.

     

    Looks a tad familiar, doesn't it?

     

    http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/692B53CF-D028-4056-9827-3C958AE309D5_zpsohh7fn5y.png

     

    Now here's the d10-15 GEFS. Haha. Except for the opposite NAO signal, the upcoming pattern looks like a carbon copy of the Sep/Oct Super Niño analogs.

     

    http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/F867F1F4-1044-4969-A901-9D2647DCD294_zpsesuwa25y.gif

  8. Same thing in hovmoller format. The convection around 120E is classic Niña, as is the dateline subsidence, however, the additional convection along/east of 120W is more typical of a Niño.

     

    There was a notable mid-September shift along/east of 60E, as well.

     

    http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/4BA35DB8-218A-4BB4-9E85-C08A222D1516_zpsry1fdf3c.gif

  9. Now the GEFS forecast..lol. There's some resemblance to the climatological Niña forcing around 120E, but the WHEM forcing is dominating, similar to that of a Niño, except very east-biased.

     

    http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/B62E95F4-A302-41E4-AC15-DAB2C71FE651_zpsqgsrwyco.png

     

    http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2B4D56DA-1372-4F1C-82E7-5051E52FCEA6_zpsoxwrkpm6.png

  10. Can't really call this a Niño cell, but it's certainly weird looking.

     

    All coherent Niña cells since the 1970s:

     

    http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/EF509581-C0F5-47F2-95EC-399BE4588F23_zpsvljdyurg.png

     

    Most clear/coherent Niño cells since the 1970s:

     

    http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/1CDBE7A7-76BB-44AA-A3E2-A0B685A55B73_zpsmyunvs6k.png

  11. Is there any precedent for this being an issue?

    Unfortunately, since adequate observations began, there's no precedence for a winter background state featuring subsidence over both the IO/MT and WPAC, and if there was, I'd expect to find it in a strong east based Niño.

     

    So, just have to lol.

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