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Phil

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Everything posted by Phil

  1. Did last year really have a Cat 4? Shows how closely I follow these storms.
  2. I'm pretty sure I was high when I wrote that. That said, I'm still generally going with the idea of a general hemispheric cooling beginning in 2017, +/- 1yr.
  3. I'm seeing shades of 2010: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-09/0F060D03-CF17-4501-86B8-E0E2E0D23E32_zps0eh69sj0.png
  4. 00z GFS looks like a raging Niño. Legit NPAC jet extension in the long range.
  5. Underperformer here so far, maybe 1.4" since yesterday morning. Some nice thunder last night at least.
  6. Here's the authors' conclusion, for those not wanting to read through it:
  7. I don't think I can refute this. I could point to a limited timeframe of observation, but that'd be handwaving. I highly recommend giving this paper a read. I strongly believe this explains most of your woes in recent decades: http://www.clim-past.net/8/1169/2012/cp-8-1169-2012.pdf
  8. Looks to me like 2007/08 fit that general bill (cold west/warm east), and to some extent, 2008/09 and 2011/12 as well. Can think of several 1980s/1990s years like that, too. Honestly, I think this type of pattern is more difficult to achieve, let alone maintain for an extended period of time, simply given large scale topography and streamflow. I don't think you can expect something like this to occur frequently..it requires a slew of self reinforcing oddities. Certainly, the poleward migration of the Hadley Cells since the late 1970s isn't helping for a number of reasons, but I'm not sure this pattern is as common as you're thinking, in the long run. Certainly, it's not nearly as common as blocky patterns that favor the Central/Eastern US.
  9. Not disputing this at all. I'm just looking at the frequencies of warm/cold winters overall, in recent decades. There's roughly an even balance, I think. In my opinion, the month to month peculiarities belong in a different category. Whether they're just an oddity or something more systematic, I don't think we can know just yet. It sure feels like something systematic to me, but I have no science to back that up.
  10. I agree you're more due for extreme cold and/or a significant Arctic blast. However, we've had just as many "warm" winters as you guys over the last decade. Just saying.
  11. True, but I doubt a few degrees of warming can explain these variances. Our seasons are being pushed back...our autumn months are now October-December, our winter months are January-April, then we get a few weeks in May and/or early June to enjoy Spring before the blast furnace takes over until late September. It snowed in May this year, and it was 95 degrees here until a week ago. Just stupid. I want normal seasons back.
  12. Yeah, and we've had some historic blowtorches as well. Last winter was our second warmest all time (warmest ever in my city), and 2011/12 was our 4th warmest all time. Not to mention the December ridiculousness. It's not even a winter month anymore..March/April have been more wintry than December in recent years (these two months have been cooling exponentially in recent years here), then it's right into torch season...we skip right over Spring now. It used to be my favorite season.
  13. Well, like 2014/15, the atmosphere was in Niño mode, and the Niño3.4 SSTA anomaly was positive. In my opinion, for all intents and purposes, they were Niño winters.
  14. What about the record warmth in 2011/12 and 2015/16? December in particular has been ridiculously warm in the east since 2011. Literally five consecutive torches.
  15. You sure about that? Last winter was an eastern blowtorch, and 2014/15 was also a torch until February/March. Also, 2012/13, and 2011/12 were both eastern blowtorches, along with 2005/06, 2006/07, 2007/08, and most of 2008/09. I think we're more due than you guys.
  16. Thing is, these relationships and correlations will change over time. The NH Hadley Cells, in particular, have migrated poleward by at least 10-15 degrees since the 1950s. Until this reverses, it'll be difficult to score a good PNW winter on zonal flow/-PNA alone. Obviously, not all zonal/+EPO Octobers will be followed by poor winters, but a lot of them are, especially nowadays.
  17. You sure you're not thinking of October 1950? In October of 1951, the NOAA reanalyses do indicate zonal flow undercutting that EPO block, but doesn't seem overly intense on any of the datasets...1950 on the other hand.. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/1D1675DF-6DA1-4C91-937C-6670D621712A_zpsxajs7ehk.png
  18. FWIW, here's an aggregate of Octobers preceding the "crappiest" -ENSO winters I could find for the PNW, back to the 1960s. All of them very +EPO/zonal, with flat NPAC ridges. Most of them are -QBO though, unlike this year. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/B0FF72C3-E2C9-46DF-9B7C-4AF9B3E2FABF_zpsrszvr3bp.png
  19. Looks like it was actually a -EPO October (Alaskan Ridge, NPAC trough situated farther west), which statistically correlates to better winters in the west. Plus the correlation on the CPC site is for 10/06, which is before the +EPO hose job. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/CF045488-B129-450E-95FB-5C2DB9BD55B1_zpsgrvdtktx.png
  20. As expected, 2007, 2005, 1998, etc are all showing up. Also some Niño years like 1992 and 1958. Though there's also 2008 showing up on 10/02, and 1970 on 10/27. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif
  21. Haha yikes, does that sound like something I'd do? Guess I need to change my posting style. FWIW, I posted my preliminary winter forecast on the previous page. I guess you didn't see it? No models were consulted.
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