Phil

Beautiful pictures. Memories to savor right there.

Death toll in Haiti rises to 842. Heartbreaking.

Looks like a more amplified version of 2010. Height anomaly pattern is almost a perfect match..can't find anything closer all the way back to the 1800s: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/62E0F8B9-6168-40B0-B3E9-059C7BCAE689_zpsriwuifw2.jpg

Jacksonville Beach at low tide. Already getting overwash on the dunes. http://www.surfline.com/surf-report/jacksonville-beach-pier-florida_5315/

I think 2010 is by far the best match to the ongoing pattern. If it were included in the CPC analogs, it'd be dominating. If that January pattern were tweaked just a tad, you'd have scored in every month that winter except December (opposite of recent trends).

Honestly no offense, but this seems fake to me (believe me I would know). Almost like you think you've found an opportunity to form an alliance and/or win over some hearts and minds, and you're doing it under the guise of objectivity. Not trying to attack you here. Maybe I'm wrong.

Looks like a mini WWB on the way, however, as Pacific convection increases again. The -IOD usually helps strengthen the Walker Cell/Niña via a consolidation of the WPAC convective maximum and warm pool there. However, it's usually more associated with a higher tropical wavenumber, so unstable ENSOs/neutral PDOs usually juxtapose with the -IOD given the occasional destructive interference out of the WHEM domain(s).

I'm with you here. I suspect we'll be seeing another multiyear regime change, from the +NAO that's dominated since 2014, towards more of a -NAO, similar to what was observed from 2008-2013.

That monster -NAO juxtaposed over a high wavenumber regime just locks the GOA trough in place on the 00z ECMWF. Until wavelengths increase after October 20th, that GOA vortex isn't going anywhere. The GOA vortex should bifurcate and/or retrograde between October 20th and October 25th, IMO. Once this happens, it'll set the stage for a trend towards NPAC blocking in November.

About the fact that your ulterior motive has always been to upset Jim, Jesse, and anyone who enjoys colder than average weather. At least that's what it looks like to me. Almost like you're being intentionally transparent so everyone knows it while giving yourself enough room to wiggle away in the process, driving your critics over the edge of sanity while you sit back and laugh. That about right?

That's true. Reconstructing based on storm surge and tree damage in wooded areas only goes so far.

You kinda walked into that.

So do lawyers.

It wouldn't surprise me if there were more cat5's earlier in the 19th century. Coastal population was much smaller. Also, cat4s used to be much more frequent.

Sounds like a personal issue. The loss of human life isn't something I'd joke about.

What's your point? It was much more than a 5.7, BTW.

There are 283 people dead in Haiti, and we're making jokes about grass huts?

Go f**k yourself.

I dunno, for surge yeah but not for wind. The Labor Day hurricane back in 1935 brought winds over 200mph. People were sand blasted to death..literally stripped of their flesh. Andrew in 1992 also delivered gusts beyond 200mph.

You said "delivered the goods". I'd say 2-3ft of snow, 100mph gusts, 10-15ft of surge, 50ft waves, and 12-18" of rain w/ imbedded thunderstorms would suffice in that regard.

Shhh don't jinx it. Oh, and then there was Sandy #micdrop

A storm typically weakens during an ERC, while the core grows. Figure skater analogy, AKA conservation of angular momentum..pull your arms in and you'll spin faster, and visa versa.

You know I'm right. And yeah, probably.

Looks like Matthew has almost completed his eyewall replacement cycle. Core is notably larger/growing.

Tim when the sun peeks through the cloud deck.