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Phil

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Everything posted by Phil

  1. Well, the 00z GFS is depicting what would be the strongest October -NAO on record. Looks similar to 1959 and 1942 at 500mb, maybe with a little 1995 sprinkled in. This has the vibes of a wild one. I think someone is gonna get nailed this winter, especially considering the -ENSO/+QBO analogs are beaten the drum for heavy midwinter blocking (especially in January and March).
  2. Even before Matthew's potential arrival, we're looking at a solid dose of rainfall this week. Looks like a general 4-6" in the DC metro area. We honestly need everything we can get. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2D21D000-004A-4D00-827C-729F12856710_zpss8n0g1xy.jpg
  3. Some of these model runs are getting tantalizingly close to something exciting w/ soon-to-be Matthew. Hoping for a Hazel redux.
  4. Long range 12z GFS/GEFS are also +EPO/GOA vortex in the extended range w/ that flat offshore ridge rearing its ugly head. Would be a normalish/zonal pattern (verbatim), but otherwise quite unproductive from a dynamics standpoint, in that it'll make it more difficult for additional GOA wavebreaking to occur until something can pop it.
  5. October precursor fans will enjoy this: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.3968/abstract Obviously, modeling suggests a strong ridge over the Taymyr Penninsula to open October. If this continues through October, it'd suggest a -AO winter is highly likely (assuming the research is legitimate). This would be a departure from the last several winters, which were mostly +AO.
  6. Based on the orientation of the tri-polar wave series and polar anticyclone @ 126hrs, I think this GFS run might go zonal/+EPO in the extended range.
  7. Yeah, 06z run was much better. No flat ridge south of the Aleutians. I have an irrational fear of that pattern, given the last several years. Does nothing but promote a Hudson Bay vortex in the long run.
  8. FWIW, assuming (soon to be) Mathhew tracks up/off the eastern seaboard, the top track analogs are Gloria (1985) and Hazel (1954). Both years have been showing up as potential analogs in the CPC superensemble. Interesting winters followed in the western US.
  9. Yeah, no surprise that 8/10 analogs for the 00z GFS were Niño winters. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif Those two Niña years (1967/68, 1984/85) were powerhouses, though.
  10. Good news is the 00z CMC ensembles don't agree. Waiting on the 00z ECMWF/EPS. The long range bias-corrected GEFS is a full blown Pineapple Express slaughterfest during week 2. Tim's nightmare..lots of warm rain. It's that "flat" ridge south of the Aleutians that can cause problems. Can be a very tough to break given its nature to (locally) constructive interfere.
  11. That ridge that develops between Hawaii and the Aleutians on some of the LR guidance is the worst possible thing that could happen. That's the mechanical loading pattern for a fully coupled +EPO. Last October comes to mind.
  12. You looking at the same run I am? I see a GOA trough/+EPO, with ridging dominating 90% of the NH (probably some sort of feedback error).
  13. Modest NPAC jet extension still looks probable, starting around d10 +/- a few days. Question is, how does the pattern evolve from there? We could fall into a +EPO/-AO type pattern (ugly) or the antecedent block could assist/force a cyclonic wavebreak response, maintaining EPO/GOA ridging (awesomeness).
  14. Huge differences between the EPS & GEFS in the global tropics. Literally night and day.
  15. I'm considering witchcraft. Have been sitting under a ridge since Memorial Day.
  16. GFS/GEFS are throwing subsidence across the EHEM in the LR, while the EPS/GGEM ensembles have a standing wave @ 150E. Talk about model disagreement.
  17. Don't like the trend in the GFS/GEFS to initiate an Alaskan/GOA vortex in mid-October. Hopefully just a blip or transient development.
  18. Clouds moved in and kept us warm. Bottomed out at 54.8. Overcast skies w/ occasional rainfall will persist all week, well into next weekend, not including the tropical trouble. Looks like the transition into autumn has begun.
  19. Made it to 51.9 this morning at 738AM. Feels wonderful to walk outside into crisp, fall air. Already down to 56.6 as of 11pm, so we might drop into the upper 40s tonight.
  20. The cool/quiet IO is something more typical in -AMO eras, as they usually go hand-in-hand. I'm definitely leaning towards using 1980s analogs, though the polar stratosphere/BDC is nothing like what is was then. Lower solar and significant differences in upper atmospheric chemistry will make a difference..what sort of difference remains to be seen.
  21. Yeah, I think a cool/quiet IO in general is a good thing. We haven't seen a sleepy IO during a Niña/-ENSO year in a long time. Was very common in the early/mid 1980s, however.
  22. I think it's reasonable to have some level of confidence in blocking at this point. Obviously it's not a given that it'll last through the month, but strong blocking over the pole or EPO/GOA domains in October is highly correlated to great winters in the western half of the US. Plus, there's the fact that a +QBO during a -ENSO winter is highly correlated to stronger NPAC blocking overall. Also, the lower/middle level stratPV (up to ~20mb, at least), has been much weaker than any other +QBO year I can find, at this stage of the game. This seems to be a result of consistent poleward mass/momentum transport under favorably oriented wave driving, and a strong post-niño BDC pumping O^3 into the polar stratosphere. Very peculiar, hopefully it continues!
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