Phil

It wouldn't surprise me if there were more cat5's earlier in the 19th century. Coastal population was much smaller. Also, cat4s used to be much more frequent.

Sounds like a personal issue. The loss of human life isn't something I'd joke about.

What's your point? It was much more than a 5.7, BTW.

There are 283 people dead in Haiti, and we're making jokes about grass huts?

Go f**k yourself.

I dunno, for surge yeah but not for wind. The Labor Day hurricane back in 1935 brought winds over 200mph. People were sand blasted to death..literally stripped of their flesh. Andrew in 1992 also delivered gusts beyond 200mph.

You said "delivered the goods". I'd say 2-3ft of snow, 100mph gusts, 10-15ft of surge, 50ft waves, and 12-18" of rain w/ imbedded thunderstorms would suffice in that regard.

Shhh don't jinx it. Oh, and then there was Sandy #micdrop

A storm typically weakens during an ERC, while the core grows. Figure skater analogy, AKA conservation of angular momentum..pull your arms in and you'll spin faster, and visa versa.

You know I'm right. And yeah, probably.

Looks like Matthew has almost completed his eyewall replacement cycle. Core is notably larger/growing.

Tim when the sun peeks through the cloud deck.

Yeah, I think I'm ready for winter now.

I'm thinking dreary, damp, and depressing.

Definitely not entering the Gulf. At least not for the next week and not as a hurricane.

I'm focused on SE GA/Saint Simons. As long as it misses that area, I can relax. Most of my happiest memories took place around there. Probably more of a home to my heart than DC. As for Matthew, given the double eyewall, the wobbles of the inner eyewall can be deceptive. The storm as a whole continues to wobble on a heading between NW and NNW.

Haha, wow. I figured you could handle a little ribbing. I guess I was wrong. Enjoy your evening.

Until I see it actually turn northward, my anxiety level will be quite high. Am still worried differential friction/convection during land interaction might tug it left.

Except you were constantly calling for ridging (I saved over 20+ posts of you doing so). Can't flip the script and claim you forecasted deep troughing most of the summer to result in warm temperatures.

Should I post the 500mb analysis for JAS? Spoiler: Lots of blue.

Enjoy the rain!

If I were to attempt this line of reasoning, Tim/Dewey et al would be all up in my space about it, considering I don't live there. It's a lose-lose for me either way.

I wasn't implying anything. I didn't think you'd take the bait.

Most guidance keeps it just offshore. These storms wobble quite frequently, so it's honestly up in the air at this point. New forecasts have 30-40ft waves near the SE GA coast with breakers over 25 feet. This on top of a surge that's 7-14ft above ground. Yikes.

Just messing around a bit.