Phil

Looks like the modeling is trending towards the depiction of a strong vortex over the western Arctic and Alaska during week two. Obviously, that favors warmth in the PNW (and most of the US, for that matter). Probably (hopefully) isn't something prolonged.

The CMC ensembles look absolutely nothing like the GEFS in the d11-15 range.

High latitude blocking would be favored. Can't take it much father than that, IMO.

Case in pointless.

I personally just analyze the trough/ridge orientation(s), as depicted at 500mb. If you're looking coherence in the air temperatures, then yeah I'd agree the subtracted hindcast climatology maps you were originally looking at are probably better, since they won't have that raging warm bias globally. The control run is another story, but relying on that member alone is quite risky.

I don't think you are, because in spite of conveying to you that I'm not "offended", you keep insisting that I am. Bizarre.

Ah, those are the maps w/ subtracted hindcast climatology. Can be beneficial when agreement is poor, and sometimes they'll verify better if the underlying pattern isn't one that'll bias the parent model, but in cases like this, I (personally) wouldn't rely on them too heavily. This is the link for the raw output. Click where it says "ECMWF EPS Weeklies": http://models.weatherbell.com/eps/weekly_eps.php

Looking at the EPS weeklies, they actually have the primary trough axis in the western US from mid/late September into very early October, before all agreement is lost thereafter through mid October.

I think October is going to be an absolute b**tch to forecast. I have zero idea as to how it'll go down.

Or, maybe you're just not very good at reading social cues?

Quite an interesting pattern being forecasted for the second half of September, especially by the GEFS. Notable poleward displacement of the climatological anticyclones. This would increase the potential for a wave to break right into the Arctic circle at some point in late September.

Well, I'm not "offended" at all, so I think it's your perception of people that needs work, not mine. I know very well how you (and a few others) perceive me. I've made it clear that I don't like you, and you've made it clear you don't like me. Let's leave it at that and be done with it.

Sure, we all hold various opinions of one another, and we all interpret things differently from time to time. There's a difference between sharing those opinions within the appropriate context, and regurgitating the same character attacks solely to diminish and insult someone, all based on a number of perceived dispositions.

I hate being challenged? Look in the mirror. I jokingly poked you (I didn't even call you out directly) and your response was a super defensive, long winded novel about how I'm a liar, an attention seeker, an exaggerator, etc. Literally a dramatic, exaggeratory rant about me being dramatic and exaggeratory. Come on, even you have to admit the ridiculousness of this. You've said this a million times. You have this tendency (I'm not sure if it's conscious or subconscious) to analyze, critique, and label people by character and/or motivation. It's quite off putting, to say the least.

I respect your opinion. It's my opinion that he holds an obsessive desire to be viewed as "level headed" and truly "holier than thou", relative to everyone else here. It's also my opinion that he takes care to make sure this "image" remains unchallenged, even if it means attacking the characters and personalities of others here. Hence, why he went off when I jokingly compared him to the people he spends his time constrasting himself with.

Heck yeah, I spent most of the afternoon outside. Actually might be able to sleep with the windows open for the first time in four months. Unfortunately, we're right back into low/mid 90s next week, then more heat after the next brief cooldown.

I'm going to respond to a few things here, then I'm moving on. I honestly didn't realize how greatly you value your "holier than thou" pedestal. If I had, I wouldn't have poked you about it. So for that, I apologize, and will refrain from bringing it up again after this exchange. That being said, some of your characterizations of me (at least nowadays) ooze the same degree of "irony" you claim exists within my apparent "assessment" of you. Aside from the fact I haven't done any of this in years, your repeated accusatory labeling of me (and others) as attention seekers easily makes you the king of "irony", given you're probably the most prolific attention-seeker here. To elaborate, it's more or less the fact you've constructed an entire personality here, solely for the purpose of distinguishing yourself as "above" everyone else, which you seek to maintain even if it requires you to attack and/or characterize others' "personalities" in contrast to "your" personality you've constructed here. It's annoying. Honestly, this is exactly what I feel you do, only you go about it differently than used to. The difference now is, I've let go and moved on from the metaphorically photoshopped version of myself I constructed here, while you have yet to come close to doing so.

Easy there, friend. Why make this personal? Quite an extravagant reaction to such a small poke. Come on, you know I'm right. Remove your suit and tie, set down the briefcase, and join the rest of us at club nutcase.

No problem. BTW, I PM'ed you my facebook info.

Well, taking a post completely out-of-context, then going into attack mode over it certainly doesn't help your case, nut. My point was that, despite our very different personalities and opinions, we all share the same crazy hobby, and we all embrace it because we post here. The fact you jumped to "some are crazier than others" (and attacked my character) proves my original premise to be correct. You're just as nutty as the rest of us, you just conceal it for the same reason I lied about my location and make dramatic posts..ego, forum stature, and a desire for attention.

It's the unperturbed EPS ensemble member. Ensemble aggregations work by "perturbing" (slightly tweaking) the initial conditions fed into the model, to account for weaknesses & potential error in the observed data fed into the model. The "control run" operates with the same general physics and resolution as the rest of the EPS members, but is "un-tweaked". The OP ECMWF is run on a higher resolution w/ slightly different physics than the ensembles, so the control run is basically the "OP" within the ensemble system. A more detailed picture of the reasoning for perturbing ensembles is as follows. Basically, a model initializes, processes, and extrapolates (forecasts) a future evolution of the systematic boundary state based on the aggregation of observed data fed into it. However, this data is obviously not perfect...there are gaps, measurement errors, processing errors, and biases inherent to both the data as well as the physics/parameterizations within the model itself that will throw the solution off. Perturbing the data input and initializion scheme(s) produces a range of outcomes throught to more or less follow the guide of potential uncertainty itself, while OP runs work to reduce uncertainty directly w/ more data, fewer parameterizations, and smaller initial parcel grids.

I think it's more how we express our nuttiness. Some proudly display it, while others attempt to conceal it under a smooth, above-the-fray attitude.

We're all nuts. We laugh, cry, and bicker over frozen water falling from the sky and/or the vibrational frequencies of gaseous molecules. At least you lawyer people for materialistic gain, so you're somewhat normal.

Nice to see a bunch of cool air up in Canada in the extended range, 12z ECMWF included. Just have to keep the PV at-bay, and then maybe this will start dropping into the US later in September on a more regular basis. Also would prefer that vortex evacuate the western Arctic sooner rather than later. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/FCA517ED-1786-406F-8672-15868D281863_zpsmlurqdn4.png

Let's not do this today. Mama Nature is probably sitting back in her lounge chair, laughing her a** off as we fight amongst ourselves trying to figure out her next move.