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Phil

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Everything posted by Phil

  1. Phil
    I believe you were calling for neutral ENSO this winter. The Niño response usually waits until the very end of solar minimum. Complicated.
  2. Phil
    Sort of like how the entire summer pattern "surprised" you? I like my chances on this one. Less convoluted in the tropics relative to August. Similar to July, actually.
  3. Phil
    Next Niño should occur in 2019-20 (right at the end of the next solar minimum).
  4. Phil
    Yeah, pretty much this.
  5. Phil
    So you're a lawyer and a scientist?
  6. Phil
    The ULL/trough was a response to upstream NPAC height rises that would've been expected in the said forcing regime at the time. Doesn't matter if it was a ULL or a trough coupled with the large scale streamflow. The pattern would've produced a trough of some sort either way.
  7. Phil
    The majority of (-ENSO) Septembers following warm Augusts finished cooler than average. So, "history" would suggest that route is taken, as does model guidance.
  8. Phil
    Gotta love anomalous intraseasonal forcing. Crazy fluke it wound up so far west..more-so than any Niña year in recorded history. The first 10 days of the month were still the troughiest of the entire summer. However, this time, the state of the the tropics is more set in stone.
  9. Phil
    I'm not seeing any warm period right now. In all likelihood, the majority of the month will be troughy.
  10. Phil
    Troughing will extend into/through mid-September.
  11. Phil
    Has anyone else noticed the recent warm summers in the PNW have coincided with reduced Atlantic hurricane activity? Seems to be a theme, as 2009, 2013, 2014, and 2015 were all quiet seasons in the Atlantic, and (so far) 2016 has been relatively quiet as well, while 2010, 2011, and 2012 were more active seasons relative to average.
  12. Phil
    Lmao
  13. Phil
    I'm not sure yet, but whatever analogs I use, they're all going to be -ENSO/+QBO, weighted towards low and/or declining solar forcing.
  14. Phil
    ECMWF really likes the gulf 'cane idea. Will it destroy the other models again?
  15. Phil
    Fred the ferocious. Definitely not betaTim or omegaDog.
  16. Phil
    Niña forcing was prevalent through (most of) July...August had forcing biased west of Niña climo towards 150E w/ IO subsidence. That makes a difference.
  17. Phil
    Yeah, even I forecasted a warm JJA.
  18. Phil
    It has mostly been confined to western WA/OR. Most of the Northwest region will finish with a cooler than average summer.
  19. Phil
    But not May or June! You seem to struggle when it comes to statistical analysis.
  20. Phil
    Bullcrap. I never even mentioned the I5 corridor until you invoked BLI to claim it's been "warming through the summer" which is pure horses**t. Nice try.
  21. Phil
    It's an outlier in that regard, as SEA, PDX, OLM, and the majority of stations within the I5 corridor have cooled overall as the warm season has progressed. In fact, only two stations in the entire region have followed BLI's trendline, BLI being one of them.
  22. Phil
    Uh, no. I was conveying the fact that the Northwest region (as a whole) has experienced a cooler than average summer. I said exactly that in three of my follow-up posts. How can I "minimize" the I5 corridor if I'm not talking about it?
  23. Phil
    My post about BLI was in reference to this (innacurate) post: The bolded is demonstrably false. As in, absolute horses**t. June finished cooler than May. July finished cooler than June. September will finish cooler than any month since last year.
  24. Phil
    Did you miss your meds? Nowhere in those posts was I arguing the I5 corridor averaged cooler than normal.
  25. Phil
    Yeah, should be obvious what the purpose of that map is. Tim is just trying to start a fight. Every bit of board drama involves him somehow.
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