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Phil

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Everything posted by Phil

  1. Was just a sarcastic poke. Fair enough. In all seriousness, I wasn't trying to attack you there, but will try to avoid posts like that if they bother you.
  2. Whatever keeps you from your next panic attack. The trend in most of the modeling/ensembles has been for a stronger offshore ridge, deeper western trough, which would expected given the pattern drivers going forward.
  3. That's a much better longitudinally-oriented trade wind burst too. Dateline easterlies assist in steepening the thermocline tilt around 120W, promoting upwelling there.
  4. 00z ECMWF does what we were discussing. Large offshore anticyclone pumping cool/dry air into the PNW on NW flow, leading to cooler surface temperatures overall. The 500mb heights spike above 600dm over the NPAC. Would be record breaking for this time of year. Edit: Looks like 603dm. Woah.
  5. The earliest I see the western troughing breaking is early August, and when it does, I don't think the reprieve lasts longer than maybe 10-15 days. There's no physical driver for any sort of +PNA/+AAM going forward. The last of any potential sustained destructive interference out of the topics is being flushed out as the EPAC continues to cool. You don't have many warm EPAC/-QBO years following Niños, and this year proves why that's so hard to do, as we continue to slide the other way. I think 1998 might be lone exception, so it might be a good anti-log going forward.
  6. Thing is, everything from the tropical convective state, to tendencies in the upper atmospheric mass/momentum fluxes (interactive w/ QBO), to residual AAM propagation argues for a continuation (or possibly an intensification) of the offshore height rises/anticyclone and downstream western troughing (-PNA pattern). So, that doesn't seem to be going anywhere, at least not anytime soon. Only difference is we should see an EPO spike during the second half of July, thanks to the residual refractive wave driving initiated via those persistent anticyclones (NPAC/WPO and NAO domains) observed recently, given the +WAFs out of the EPAC as the lead propagatory wave orbits back into the IO/EHEM. So, that will possibly result in a more classic full latitude trough from AK into the PNW behind a more classic offshore anticyclone biased more equatorward. Would also favor a big ridge over most of the country east of the Rockies, given the lower wavenumber.
  7. Why do you think that? If anything I think the troughing could be more impressive mid/late month, also perhaps oriented farther east so drier N/NW flow results instead of the S/SW flow we've seen this go around. Either way, it'll be hard to avoid a cooler than average month regionwide, when all is said and done. I'd bet good money that SEA finishes July with a negative departure.
  8. If SEA isn't at/below -2 by 7/15 (unlikely), I'll probably win our wager, as the troughing isn't going away this month. Watch for a break sometime during the 1st half of August as another retrogression occurs, followed by the next round of offshore height rises/western troughing during the next drop in the AAM integral/constructive EHEM forcing.
  9. The high temperature at EUG today was 13 degrees below the climatological average. Brrr.
  10. Thanks. Though, given developing Niña summers w/ -IOD are all basically the same in terms of progression, it wasn't exactly the most difficult forecast to make. [knocks on wood]
  11. Your prediction for a cooler first half of July might be in trouble if you guys don't put up bigger departures soon. The troughing isn't going away this month.
  12. LWX not biting on big heat yet, but the EPS/GEFS are really pounding the drum for it during week 2.
  13. FWIW, the 00z ECMWF has cooler than average 850mb temperatures through the entire run, with no end in sight.
  14. Thanks. It's not over yet, but the progression going forward looks straight up classic to me. The hot summer idea (nationally) is panning out well, though, given the country just had its hottest June on record. Probably a good chance at the hottest JJA on record, also.
  15. I wonder if Tim will be in MN when this all goes down, haha. I'm probably toast also. The analogs were fairly clear on this, though, so it's not surprising. Fairly typical to get NPAC height rises/western troughing during developing Niña summers, especially under antecedent +QBO/-IOD/-AMO circulations. So, not too surprising when you get down to it.
  16. Holy death ridge on the 00z GFS. Good chance it's a product of erroneous feedback with the WAFs from the EPAC TCs, but still scary looking. You guys should escape either way, however.
  17. 00z GFS just caved to the ECMWF for late next week. Now has that ULL moving into the PNW while the ridge retrogrades underneath.
  18. Yeah, major shift in global circulation ongoing, aside from what'd be considered typical of ENSO/AAM. Last time we observed something this significant was back in 1998, though this one is displaying opposite tendencies vs those of 1998.
  19. We currently have most anomalous -IOD cell since at least 1996. Systematic circulation looking a lot more like something out of the 1980s or early/mid 1990s right now, only solar/HC state is nothing like those years.
  20. Getting ready to leave the jobsite, dewpoint already down to 64 degrees. Legitimately refreshing versus yesterday afternoon/evening.
  21. Nicer day today overall, currently 90/68 H/I 95 with some cloudcover to make it feel cooler. Doesn't feel nearly as "disgusting" as yesterday.
  22. Y'all might get an influx of tourists next weekend if the 00z GEFS is correct. Everyone torching into oblivion except you guys. Remember, this is a day 10 ensemble mean. These are 2m temperatures:
  23. PDO/EPAC dropping like a rock. Imagine what another two weeks of this pattern will do to SSTs. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png
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