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Everything posted by Phil
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That's a much better longitudinally-oriented trade wind burst too. Dateline easterlies assist in steepening the thermocline tilt around 120W, promoting upwelling there.
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The earliest I see the western troughing breaking is early August, and when it does, I don't think the reprieve lasts longer than maybe 10-15 days. There's no physical driver for any sort of +PNA/+AAM going forward. The last of any potential sustained destructive interference out of the topics is being flushed out as the EPAC continues to cool. You don't have many warm EPAC/-QBO years following Niños, and this year proves why that's so hard to do, as we continue to slide the other way. I think 1998 might be lone exception, so it might be a good anti-log going forward.
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Thing is, everything from the tropical convective state, to tendencies in the upper atmospheric mass/momentum fluxes (interactive w/ QBO), to residual AAM propagation argues for a continuation (or possibly an intensification) of the offshore height rises/anticyclone and downstream western troughing (-PNA pattern). So, that doesn't seem to be going anywhere, at least not anytime soon. Only difference is we should see an EPO spike during the second half of July, thanks to the residual refractive wave driving initiated via those persistent anticyclones (NPAC/WPO and NAO domains) observed recently, given the +WAFs out of the EPAC as the lead propagatory wave orbits back into the IO/EHEM. So, that will possibly result in a more classic full latitude trough from AK into the PNW behind a more classic offshore anticyclone biased more equatorward. Would also favor a big ridge over most of the country east of the Rockies, given the lower wavenumber.
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Why do you think that? If anything I think the troughing could be more impressive mid/late month, also perhaps oriented farther east so drier N/NW flow results instead of the S/SW flow we've seen this go around. Either way, it'll be hard to avoid a cooler than average month regionwide, when all is said and done. I'd bet good money that SEA finishes July with a negative departure.
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If SEA isn't at/below -2 by 7/15 (unlikely), I'll probably win our wager, as the troughing isn't going away this month. Watch for a break sometime during the 1st half of August as another retrogression occurs, followed by the next round of offshore height rises/western troughing during the next drop in the AAM integral/constructive EHEM forcing.
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LWX not biting on big heat yet, but the EPS/GEFS are really pounding the drum for it during week 2.
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I wonder if Tim will be in MN when this all goes down, haha. I'm probably toast also. The analogs were fairly clear on this, though, so it's not surprising. Fairly typical to get NPAC height rises/western troughing during developing Niña summers, especially under antecedent +QBO/-IOD/-AMO circulations. So, not too surprising when you get down to it.
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Getting ready to leave the jobsite, dewpoint already down to 64 degrees. Legitimately refreshing versus yesterday afternoon/evening.
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Nicer day today overall, currently 90/68 H/I 95 with some cloudcover to make it feel cooler. Doesn't feel nearly as "disgusting" as yesterday.