Phil

Blew past the predicted high temp again. Forecast: 64°F. Actual: 73°F. Motherf**king joke. Why can’t cold anomalies overperform like this?

The 3 things you can count on most are death, taxes, and humans failing to learn from history. Hilarious reading these century old texts where we’d confidently established that we’d figured everything out, only to be laughably wrong about almost everything. But *this* time we *definitely* have it right, because we’re sooo much smarter now.. ..said each and every generation before ours. Some things never change (the climate definitely changes, though).

Yeah it’s basically a cop out.

I’d be okay with a weak niña. Much colder than a strong niño, but with similar snowfall climatology (statistically). I might beat you in snowfall for the second winter in a row.

You might be joining me! I’ve known 2024 was going to be a s**t summer for awhile. Post-niño and descending +QBO is always nightmare fuel here. I’ve reached the acceptance stage on that.

Still plenty of potential failure modes. I’m not denying a niña is statistically favored (it is) but it’s far from a sure thing. Models are also notoriously bad at predicting ENSO during the spring months, for a number of reasons I’m too tired to delve into right now.

Damn right. It literally doesn’t exist yet, so of course I’m going to deny it. Like..duh.

We hit 82°F on Thursday and 81°F back in January. The latter hasn’t happened since 1932.

Assuming there is a niña. We’re still in moderate niño territory. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

Despite clouds/drizzle we found a way to reach the mid-70s. Warmth has consistently overperformed this year, even in the context of this climate era. As reliable as the sun rising.

Yeah I don’t think we’re taking that pathway this year. Post-niño with in-situ -PMM and warm IO will probably rotate those anomalies clockwise by ~ 90°.

Someone had mentioned stinkbugs?

Going to be a rough tornado season. Has all the hallmarks. 2008 isn’t a good seasonal analog, as much as I’d love a repeat (was one of the best convective seasons I’ve ever experienced). 2010 is much closer. The super +AMO/+AMM and -PMM are nearly clones to the current state.

I assume you meant West Virginia?

We hit 82°F today instead. Grotesque.

Interesting how hail is the primary severe wx phenomenon out west, but as you travel east it becomes less frequent and is replaced by high wind.

The storms in CO are visually spectacular. Best I’ve ever seen anywhere. No low level scud clouds obstructing the view of the parent cumulonimbi (basically never see the actual storm structure here, always obscured). Also it seemed like every storm cell in CO Springs produced hail. Even the most mediocre cells. It hailed almost as frequently as it rained. Yet there wasn’t any strong wind or outflow with any of the storms. So different from what I’m used to. Here every little cell has a gust front or imbedded wet microburst, and hail is a rarity confined to the most severe storms. I’ve gone years without seeing a single hailstone.

I’m soooo glad I don’t have pollen allergies. Everyone around me is sneezing and hacking up a storm worse than cold/flu season. Somehow the pollen counts this year are outpacing last year (which was already a record breaking season). Can see it floating in the air, blowing on the ground with every breeze.

Standard time in summer would be so stupid. The horizon already begins brightening at 430AM on DST. Standard time would move that to 330AM. In Seattle it would be even worse, probably 245AM.

Your sunset time today is 7:14pm. 8pm is nautical twilight there.

At that point it’s too late.

I think that would be even more confusing. I don’t like the lost hour of sleep after springing forward either, but it only takes a few days to adjust. Later sunsets are worth it for me.

Fixed.

FYI that pattern will literally kill people in their sleep. Just saying.

Fixed.