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Phil

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Everything posted by Phil

  1. Had some heat but it wasn’t very sustained. And humidity was low enough to drop temps decently at night relative to climo.
  2. OT but check out this cell exploding from nothing to 40,000ft+ in under 30mins. Looks like that tonga eruption with the radiating outflow. IMG_7281.MOV
  3. Haha. I’ll believe it when I see it. Almost always ends in disappointment.
  4. Texas/Gulf Coast just blowing away records. Troughing confined to the NW US again, consistent with La Niña. Map by Brian B.
  5. Actually finished -0.3°F here. Plains ridging often correlates to NW flow here. Especially during the first half of summer.
  6. SBCAPE pushing 3000J/kg at 11AM and convection already firing up on the ridges. Could be a sign this afternoon will overperform here, downstream from the terrain. Or not..lol. We’ll see. It’s been a very inconsistent storm season thus far.
  7. That’s awesome man. Have never seen noctilucent clouds before.
  8. Mr. Marine Layer would know all about that.
  9. OT but def one of the strangest Junes in memory imby. No measurable precip on 27/30 days..unheard of here. And most of the precip (2.9”) fell on 1 night, due to training thunderstorms. Earth soaked it up like a dry sponge. The rest (~1.5”) fell in 2 other brief t-storms. Safe to say, the biosphere ain’t happy right now. Goes to show how even near average rainfall can result in a very negative soil moisture balance if distributed poorly.
  10. Yeah we’ve got plenty of forestland around here (including some bonafide old growth around the creek/riverbeds). So lots of wildlife, including bugs. And lots of humidity due to all that transpiration.
  11. No two ways about it..June sucked. Finished much drier than average here, almost all of the monthly rain (~ 2.9”) fell on 1 night. In total 27/30 days had no rain at all here.
  12. June was a big ouch for 80% of the US. PNW and AZ/NM were the big winners. h/t to Brian B for the map.
  13. Was a dry day in the 90s with dews in the 50s, so relatively comfortable, but the humidity has surged back in tonight with dews rising into the 70s. Wind has gone completely calm so it feels more stagnant.
  14. At least you get plenty of breaks from the heat up there.
  15. To which primitive models are you referring? Almost all of the projections have overestimated warming under scenarios most similar to the observed GHG increases (particularly in the tropical upper troposphere, which is where the greatest thermalization of intercepted LWR will occur under any positive H2O feedback scenario).
  16. Pesticides aren’t really effective against Cicadas. They live underground for years and have above-ground lifespans of only a few weeks. The removal of trees and urbanization might be factors. Or differences in weather conditions.
  17. Yup that’s a scissor grinder. Will be hearing a lot more soon! I took this video in August back in 2018. This is what it’s gonna sound like in late summer:
  18. Usually it’s either one or the other. Pick your favorite!
  19. I bet even Mossman would sacrifice the rest of summer for a 1949/50 repeat.
  20. I’m still betting there will be a break in the heat. The MJO will be over the West-Pacific and Maritime Continent for the next 2-3 weeks. Historically that favors troughing over the Plains. But I agree late July and August look hellish. Note how large scale subsidence envelopes the dateline/WPAC domain, circled in black. That right there is a big time heat signal during mid/late summer.
  21. Really bullish on a cold winter in the West given descending westerly QBO and what looks to be a bonafide strong La Niña. Not that it’ll happen, but verbatim this would be the year where, strictly on data, 1949/50 actually is an analog for once. Sucks for the Plains and SW US, though.
  22. New EPS weeklies are bullish on large scale subsidence enveloping the west-Pacific starting in late July. Regardless of what the ensemble mean looks like across the middle latitudes, this strongly suggests to me that -PNA will be dominant during the 2nd half of summer with a protracted -dAAMt starting around the third week of July.
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