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Phil

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Everything posted by Phil

  1. Yeah that’s only the eastern cicadas. There are plenty of western species. They tend to be less loud/numerous but they def exist. Here’s a site that includes cicada species in the western areas. https://www.cicadamania.com/cicadas/common-cicadas-of-north-america/
  2. North Bend looks beautiful today. Not sure what the issue is. https://www.northbendweather.com/WWL-mobile.php
  3. U can do through the cicada songs here (bottom left menu) to determine which one it is: http://songsofinsects.com/katydids/common-true-katydid Haven’t heard any cicadas here since that loner in mid-June. Makes sense though, since mid-June is very early for them (2nd earliest I can remember, actually).
  4. Am I crazy for taking the under on temps late Jul-mid Aug? Because I don’t see any kind of heat signal during that timeframe. Like, zippo. Though I suppose it’s possible models are wrong w/ handling the suppressed phase of the MJO thru the W-Hem in late July. But I don’t think they’re *that* wrong.
  5. I think there’ll be another one in mid-July. But I’m sure that’ll end up being a few days again as well.
  6. They say the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over again and expecting a different result. This is the 3rd time I’ve predicted a prolonged warmup this spring/summer and each time it’s ended up being a few days then back to cool. Clearly something is different this year. The same intraseasonal cycles in the tropics that have roasted the PNW since 2013 have not done so in 2022.
  7. Man he really wants El Niño. Decent video. I don’t see the signal for any bonafide WPAC MJO/WWB to trigger a downwelling kelvin wave, though. Quite the opposite. But we’re about to find out.
  8. IIRC y’all kicked our arse during the last El Niño in 2018/19. And then there’s 1968/69. Haha
  9. Yeah been a awhile since we’ve had a real storm. Looking forward to the next El Niño, lol.
  10. I’ve never seen this many lightning bugs in my life. Something about the weather must have been favorable for an exceptional emergence. Thousands upon thousands of them lighting up in the trees every second.
  11. And ENSO is solidly cooler than it was in 2011 was at this time. The ongoing trade surge will trigger an upwelling oceanic kelvin wave in July, which will begin the descent back into a moderate (or perhaps strong) La Niña next winter. Sucks for me, probably another crappy winter out here.
  12. Been browsing that site Tim linked me to all day. Crazy how much less water was the atmosphere around here back then. Lows regularly in the 50s/60s even in July/August (except very urban stations). High temps were also much more valuable, on both ends of the spectrum. More frequent sub-80 highs (and 100+ highs as well). And much, much less rainfall. Especially in Jul/Aug. Almost looks a different climate compared to what it’s become now.
  13. Can start to see that mid-July heat spike showing up there. I think it’s legit, too. I’d be downright shocked if the PNW got away from this subseasonal state without one more bout of ridging.
  14. North Bend dropped to 32°F on this date in 2015?? https://www.northbendweather.com/WWL-mobile.php
  15. Lol. Maybe the solution was so bad NCEP had to pump the brakes and correct it.
  16. 12z EPS has a more meaningful break in the ridging now D10-15. Maybe the hiatus is finally going to arrive.
  17. By the grace of god we’ve been spared that crap so far. In fact we haven’t hit 100°F since 2016, which is one of the longest steaks on record. Have had lots of very tropical air, though. At some point we’re gonna pay dearly for that. Maybe by then I’ll have moved somewhere else.
  18. I’ve never seen purple on this Day-16 GEFS U850 hovmoller. Ever.
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