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Everything posted by Phil

  1. Operational GFS vs its ensemble mean. Always the same mistake.
  2. I’m surprised how strong the Plains ridge is modeled to be over the next 10 days. This is when I’d expect some attenuation to occur but seems Mother Nature ain’t having it. I still think we can expect a more significant trough in the Plains by mid-July? Or at least I hope so. Get some water into the ground to ease any low soil moisture feedbacks which might otherwise take hold. Still seems we’re lined up for a p8-3 MJO/-dAAMt from late July into August which can be very nasty. Reminiscent of years such as 1980, 1988, or 1995 if that is the timing, though maybe a week or so slower this year.
  3. Humidity must’ve low as heck back then. Checking here at College Park (a few miles away) some of these obs from 1894 are f**king insane. 90°F with a low of 49°F? That’s literally impossible today. Heck I’ve never even measured a low below 60°F in July.
  4. Not as bad as I thought it would be. Thank goodness!
  5. 00z GFS is going to do something moronic. I spot two spurious features already at D4.
  6. I remember how brutal that summer was here. Was also unusual in the sense that it was both scorching hot and fairly humid/wet. Usually the very hot summers are somewhat dry/less humid with more westerly flow (as opposed to southerly). But that one was a combo of both.
  7. Yeah, 70°F with full sunshine and a 15mph breeze sounds AWFUL.
  8. That f**ker is just getting started too. Unless something changes dramatically it’s a full blown dust bowl pattern come late Jul/Aug. Need to take advantage of the Pacific MJO transit before then, maybe get some rainfall into the ground across the Plains to cap the soil moisture feedbacks. Next 3 weeks are important in that regard.
  9. PNW would be lucky to avoid another heat spike considering how heat-favorable the MJO/GWO looks. Mid-July might have one last hurrah left in it. Maybe the background circulation will keep it in check on the westside. Have no idea. But it isn’t until the second half of July (especially the 20th onwards) that the tropical forcing/intraseasonal state becomes legitimately favorable for western troughing again.
  10. 1930? That’s kind of interesting. Would never have expected cold records from that summer, considering what happened in July. And the overall temperament of that pattern. To date, the 1930 heatwave is unrivaled here. I don’t think we’ve even scratched the surface of the crazy patterns ma’ nature is capable of.
  11. 5” of rain in a single thunderstorm? Yikes lol. I definitely wouldn’t enjoy that. One of those slow moving boomers stalled and blew its entire load over Ellicott City in 2018 and it wiped out half the town.
  12. I don’t think that’s nearly warm enough for him. Hawaii or Isle of Palms would be a much better fit. Both can go months without a single cold front. And have palm trees.
  13. We once had a 7/4 BBQ in the middle of a thunderstorm with cloud to ground lightning all around us. Luckily it cleared in time for fireworks, but the skeeters and humidity were bonkers that night. A little drizzle is nothing.
  14. You’ll have a better idea of what to expect if you take the bigger picture into account. Models bounce around at isolated spots all the time.
  15. And I’m showing you that the airmass is colder and most locations trended cooler. Not a “warm trend” at all.
  16. The 00z CMC is cooler than the 12z, actually. No warm trend.
  17. Oh gosh dude, I’m so sorry. Sending a prayer your way.
  18. I don’t know what the heck is wrong with it, but cannot recall any global model spitting out such ridiculous solutions inside week-1, ever. Not even 15 years ago. Closest thing I can remember is the DGEX (which was a decade ago and more of an experimental extension of the NAM). There’s something seriously wrong with this model.
  19. I’m willing to put my junk on the line again. This is so obvious it hurts to look at. And the GFS scores the worst of all the global numerical models inside 5 days at 500mb. We’d be better off without it.
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