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Phil

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Posts posted by Phil

  1. 1 hour ago, iFred said:

    It's my third favorite too.

    The month of Nor'easters in March 2018 is my favorite winter event of all time, followed by December 2008, followed by the Blizzard of 16, followed by the Ice Storm of 96 followed by November 2006 (that whole winter was fun), followed by November 2010, followed by the weekend storm of January 2012.

    In my early twenties I would get sent into a little bit of a spiral thinking how if you go onto WeatherSpark, you could visualize the dozens of times that Seattle saw more than three inches of snow recorded on any day since 1980. It made me think that living out here, I would statistically would only see a regional multi day event once every fifteen years. Throw in all of the smaller events, it amounted to three weeks of snow cover for every ten years (I did the math on a spreadsheet back in 2010 or 2011 and cant find it). Add in some variance by including days where the high was 37º and under, you were looking at 45 days of solid winter for every ten years, 60 if you did sub-40º. In that period of "artistic" obsession, I found that Chuckanut Mountains served as a divide for climate, plant hardiness, average snow school days, and total snowfall. It seemed that every value that I valued for winter had doubled, the number of days below 40º, the number of days with snow on the ground, the number of BC licence plates in the Costco parking lot, all doubled. As a single man, living by himself, and working nights in tech, I had days and days to pour over these spreadsheets trying to optimize where I should live in Western Washington to get the most amount of snow and cold in the winter. Then I snapped.

    Our climate in the lowlands is capable of those top tier storms that will even get Jim Cantore to risk his life to come out here and stand on the Pine St overpass in Seattle has heavy flakes come down. One read of Storm King and you get the idea why. That said, I have learned to love and embrace our landscape and climate as is. It is pretty unique and worthwhile in its own right. We have some of the most amazing rainstorms, giving us an opportunity to sit by a window with a hot cup of coffee and gaze out into a dark landscape partially illuminated by a warm glow of surface lighting. Our windstorms can be otherworldly, each sixty mile-per-hour gust at night bending back the boughs of the tree like a worn out toothbrush, scraping against a night sky eerily illuminated by the fast moving and low cloud deck, flashes of bright blue light in the distance, further highlighting the tendrils of vapor that try to escape the underside of the storm. Inversion season here might be one of the most widespread, long-lasting, and intense occurrences in the western hemisphere, with what seem to be days of near freezing and some valleys around collecting enough rime ice to make a snowball with. Our summers, aided by our high latitude and peaceful summer ocean, are easily the best in the entire nation, two to three solid months where the skies are absolutely clear, the temps above 70 but below 90, an enough humidity in the air to keep your lips from chapping, but not too much that you can go outside and enjoy a brisk walk, and how the summer twilight just seamlessly blends from sunset to moonrise, bright blue to black, all in a three hour long curtain drop, revealing absolutely beautiful night skies.

    Maybe this is cope, it probably is. I still have dreams that my wife is suddenly ok with moving to Boston or New York, and am nothing short of ecstatic, mostly because of the weather I'll get to experience. If this is all just me hitting that final stage of grief, I'm ok with that. A lot more in my life that I love about the place I live in than just the weather, but the weather is still a big part of it.

    We missed out on almost everything in March 2018. Just one moderate snowfall after the spring equinox and that was all she wrote.

    Made big money after the windstorm on 3/2/18, though (I still worked in landscaping at the time). 18hrs of 60-70+mph gusts knocked down a lot of weak wood.

    Basically every dead ash tree came down with that one. Every street was littered with them.

    • Like 1
  2. 1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

    Amazing. Couldn't imagine 34" of snow in a day. What a ride that would be. And I'm assuming the snowfall rates weren't a uniform 1.5"/hr or whatever... What did they peak at?

    It was lit. Wish I could relive it.

    Light snow began around 2pm in association w/ WAA/isentropic upglide, gradually intensified to moderate snow by sundown as the first frontogenic bands rotated in. No wind yet at this point, just completely dead calm and silent.

    Then at ~ 10pm, frontogenic forcing and moisture advection went nuclear all of a sudden. In the blink of an eye it started puking snow at ~ 2”+/hr, along with frequent thunder/lightning and the first gusts of wind from the E/NE. The entire character of the storm changed in an instant. This went on until ~ 5AM, then we temporarily lulled back to light snow ahead of the ULL/deform pivot. Still a light NE wind at that point.

    Then just after lunchtime, the deformation band pivoted overhead, and the true blizzard conditions began, with the highest rates and strongest winds of the storm. As winds quickly veered to the N/NW, the temperature dropped from 29°F to 21°F and snowfall rates increased to 3”+/hr. Lots of blowing/drifting snow. No thunder/lightning this time, but the conditions on the ground were more extreme than overnight. Ripped like crazy until 6-7pm, until the deform band pivoted off to the E/NE, at which point we fell back to light snow for the next 3 hours. Finally stopped snowing ~ 10PM.

    NWS employee that lived a few miles away reported 37” as the grand total. My measurements were all over the place because of drifting, but the average was a bit over 34”. Though this doesn’t account for compaction, so maybe it would’ve been a little higher if I’d followed official measurement procedures.

    All in all, an amazing storm. My 3rd favorite storm of all time, in fact (behind the 2/10/10 mega-blizzard and 2/6/10 snowmageddon that had occurred just days prior).

    • Like 3
    • Spam 1
  3. 16 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

    You hadn’t had 2 weeks of consecutive snow cover in nearly a decade 😱.  That’s pretty pathetic.  We definitely have better winters here. 

    This climate isn’t good for preserving snow cover. The 2016 blizzard dumped 34” of snow in 24hrs, but it was all gone inside 10 days.

    Imagine, all this snow vanishing in 8-9 days. So sad.

    IMG_0532.jpeg
    IMG_0669.jpeg

    IMG_0554.jpeg

    • Like 3
    • Spam 1
  4. 6 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

    Honestly, DCA is going to melt either way as the East Coast climate becomes increasingly subtropical up to Cape Cod or so. The weenie handwringing back there over ENSO state is an antiquated formality at this point. Snowy winters there are probably a thing of the past, and cold ones definitely are.

    This winter was actually solid here. NYC/New England got screwed, but I don’t care about them.

    Had 2 weeks of unbroken snowcover for the first time since 2015. Had nearly a foot on the ground at one point. ☃️ And a full week of subfreezing temps kept it from melting during that timeframe.

    Also had accumulating snow every month this winter. Last time that happened was 2019. So all in all, I’m content.

    IMG_0666.jpegIMG_9859.jpeg
    IMG_0667.jpeg

    • Like 7
    • Snow 1
  5. 1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

    Let's recap why Phil wants us to root against La Niña:

    -La Niña will prevent La Niña from happening again, so in order to get La Niña we have to root against La Niña. So we can have more La Niña in the future. Makes sense.

    -La Niña is actually an endothermic process which burns the Earth. I mean the effects of this warming aren't noticeable for centuries but think of how hard he just OWNED you with the Thermodynamics 101 lesson. But don't worry about CO2 emissions, we don't really understand that or something lmao

    -If next winter is a La Niña he might CRY and that would make us feel bad :( 

    lol, correct except for the timescale. The warming following a 3+ year niña is evident inside 5 years following the event. But if a more +ENSO tendency follows, it becomes statistically null and void. 

    Longer term warming/cooling via ENSO variability is indeed largely on the centennial scale due to the high degree of multidecadal variability in ENSO behavior.

    Also, ENSO is just one of several modes of internal variability in ocean/atmosphere circulation/heat transports (all of which affect global climate significantly). We follow ENSO because it’s short term/noticeable, and high amplitude.

    However, there are other, longer term modes of internal variability (mostly involving the IPWP/seasonality and axisymmetric variability in the z-circulations) that actually have more profound effects on global climate than ENSO does. But they’re understudied and overlooked because they operate on such long timescales that we don’t necessarily realize they exist.

    • Like 1
  6. 17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

    I don’t care about global temps. Just my temp. 

    Your temp will suffer the same fate, my brother.

    The next intradecadal IPWP extension (and reversal of Hadley-Walker intensity ratio) will begin any year now. When it does, the seasonal tendencies of the last decade will invert, with western Canada/PNW blowtorching focused in the winter/spring months, and AL/+PNA/+TNH becoming the low frequency mean-state.

    I don’t control any of this. Just giving a heads up. ;) 

    • Troll 2
  7. 16 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

    I thought that was 1998? 

    I’m talking about baseline global temps (after removing the ENSO component). Yes there was a prolific spike in 1998 due to the El Niño, but temperatures never recovered to pre-niño values during/after the 3+ year Niña that followed. Same thing after the 1973/74 -1975/76 Niña.

    Keep in mind the reason the atmosphere cools during La Niña is because more heat is being absorbed into the oceans (largely stored in the IPWP and off-equator regions). Vice versa for warming during El Niño (heat built up/stored in the IPWP is released into the atmosphere, thus warming global temps).

    This is why La Niña dominated before/during the MWP (and even more-so during the Holocene thermal maximum), and why the abrupt switch to the most Niño-dominant centennial base state in 11,000+ years in the 1300s-1500s culminated in the LIA.

    The immediate effect of El Niño is to warm the atmosphere, yes. But given enough time (ie: decades to centuries of El Niño dominance) the system will begin to cool as the tropical oceans gradually lose heat.

    • Weenie 4
  8. FWIW, if you don’t like climate warming, you shouldn’t be rooting for La Niña. The system accumulates heat during La Niña (ocean uptake). It’s the reason every 3+ year niña of significant amplitude has been followed by a jump in baseline global temperatures and a shake-up in global circulation within a few years of its termination.

    Recent examples:

    1973/74 - 1975/76: Followed by the “Great Pacific Climate Shift” of 1976, which saw an abrupt and high amplitude flip to +TNH/+PMM/+PDO, big jump in global temperatures, and 8 years without another La Niña.

    1998/99 - 2000/01: Followed by a jump in global temperatures in 2002 (often referred to as “the step change”). Also a significant IPWP extension, +PNA winters, and 7 years without a bonafide La Niña (unless you include the borderline event in 05/06).

    1954/55 - 1956/57: Followed by 8 years without a La Niña, and a termination of the big -PNA/-NPO era that had produced epic PNW winters since the late 1940s. Thankfully global temps recovered/cooled in the 1960s thanks to a fortuitous reorganization of the IPWP/global general circulation (hence the big -NAO era).

    I suspect a similar theme will play out this go around. Even if next winter is a niña, as soon as the IPWP extends intradecadally, I expect another prolonged stretch without a bonafide La Niña. One can only hope the LP general circulation structure(s) reorganize in a manner analogous to the 1960s, and not the 2000s.

    • Weenie 2
  9. Man that sun is getting STRONG. Thought it was in the upper 50s when I was outside earlier but it’s still in the 40s at 3PM!

    Weird to have winter like high temps when all surfaces are so freaking warm to the touch. Walked thru the grass barefoot and it was downright toasty. And was actually hot getting into the car earlier.

    Gonna enjoy the cool air while I still can. It’s on borrowed time.

    • Like 2
  10. 3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

    Saw article online that the cherry blossons in DC are peaking and its the second earliest ever there.

    So that reminded me to check out the cherry blossoms at UW in Seattle... and wow they are early too.    They say they will peak in March this year and they look like they are getting close already.  

    uw cherry 3-18-24.jpg

    UHI is a big contributor to earlier bloom times in DC, though. Some of the springs in the 1920s/30s would have produced earlier peak bloom dates had they occurred today.

    The cherry blossoms in our neighborhood are still ~ 2 weeks from peak bloom. The cherry blossom in our yard didn’t have any blooms until a couple days ago.

    Downtown DC is much farther along, despite being only 9 miles away. Which is what happens when overnight lows are 10+ degrees warmer night after night.

    • Like 1
  11. 4 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

    Phil has me thinking there is hope for cold neutral or a week Nina.    The Nino will be gone soon but that doesn't necessarily mean it will continue to crash hard all the way to a strong Nina.

    I’m not predicting such an outcome, but it’s a distinct possibility. Though keep in mind I’m not an unbiased observer..I have a vested interest in a weaker ENSO outcome.

    It’s also very possible we end up with a strong single year niña like 1988/89. The transition from -QBO to +QBO this summer/fall (westerly shear descending to/through 30mb) will favor a cleaner La Niña transition, just as the descending -QBO last year helped the El Niño regime establish itself early and with ease.

    • Like 2
  12. 14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

    Great pics.   Are the yellow forsythia?   Those are blooming around the Seattle area now too. 

    Looks pretty close to the same stage around here.

    Screenshot_20240317-172206_Chrome.jpg

    Yes, Beatrix-Farrand Forsythia, and has been blooming since February. It’s 40 years old and grows back more vigorously each time we cut it back. Amazingly hardy plant.

    Also, for whatever reason in 2020 it started a second bloom cycle in Nov/Dec. Has done so each year since. Haven’t the slightest clue as to why, but it adds some flavor to the otherwise dead/dying landscape at that time of year.

  13. 1 hour ago, Timmy Supercell said:

    So far I'm cool with all the local birds. Our cardinals are not obnoxiously noisy.. but there is one bird I'm sure the whole US has, used to bug me at 6am on the west coast and it does here too certain warmer months.

    Thankfully I tend to wake up before sunrise but as the nights get shorter it’s hard to maintain that.

    Have you heard the Carolina Wren? Such an incredible number of decibels for such a small bird.

    CHIRPIDY-CHIRPIDY-CHIRPIDY-CHERPIDY-CHIRP!

    • bongocat-test 1
  14. 4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

    Have Nino to Ninas typically been very active? I know Nina springs in general tend to see more severe weather mid continent.

    Some are, depends how quick the transition is and the in-situ state as well (different modes of niño decay affect the pattern in different ways).

    This year bears some resemblance to 2010 and 1973 (in different ways, of course). 

    Does not resemble 1958, 1998, or 2016 at this point, unfortunately. Had been holding out hope we’d take that route but it simply isn’t in the cards.

    • Like 1
  15. 20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

    Your trees look like ours here but it seems like you have had waaaaaay more warm weather than us.

    Birds have been very active here too.  Sounded like summer at dawn today.

    Yep dawn chorus has started. I swear those f**kers wake up before 6AM just to worsen my insomnia.

    And the trees behind the house have started to leaf out already. The ones in the picture are all oak and sycamore, which don’t usually leaf out until late April (tho will probably be a few weeks earlier this year).

    • bongocat-test 1
  16. 19 minutes ago, Phil said:

    I fear a slew of major tornado outbreaks are in store for the central states, first one in late March, then a barrage in early/mid April. One of the ugliest possible evolutions of subseasonal forcing elements seems all but assured now.

    On the bright side, it’ll mean some solid negative departures in the west/PNW (maybe a top tier cool shot in there somewhere). And some amazing storm footage. ⛈️ 

    But the downside is the elephant in the room.

    • Like 1
  17. 15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

    You had the same weather as North Bend today.   I can tell you it is pure misery.   Room temperature and low humidity.   Can't get any more uncomfortable. 

    Screenshot_20240317-142433_Chrome.jpg

    I’m more bothered by the massive overachieving of high temps than the actual temps. Yeah it feels nice, but 6 weeks from now a similar departure would equate to low/mid 90s. I’m a big picture guy.

    Plus 850mb temps are almost 0°C. Could have been a solid cool departure if it weren’t for downsloping.

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