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Everything posted by Phil

  1. I don’t know what the heck is wrong with it, but cannot recall any global model spitting out such ridiculous solutions inside week-1, ever. Not even 15 years ago. Closest thing I can remember is the DGEX (which was a decade ago and more of an experimental extension of the NAM). There’s something seriously wrong with this model.
  2. I’m willing to put my junk on the line again. This is so obvious it hurts to look at. And the GFS scores the worst of all the global numerical models inside 5 days at 500mb. We’d be better off without it.
  3. It’s already lost its marbles at that point. I advise everyone to ignore the GFS completely. Just complete and utter trash. Useless.
  4. What the fūck is this nonsense? Shut this model down immediately.
  5. This looks like another classic case of the GFS effing up the ULL, though. No way in hell will it backtrack like that. Zero chance.
  6. I have an unused VP2+ I could mail him. Have no need for it. Fan aspirated radiation shield and everything.
  7. U ready for a 1949/50 repeat this winter? #SuperNiña
  8. Ugh I know what you’re talking about. That s**t gets everywhere. When in rains in May the puddles are chalk full of it.
  9. Folks in the Plains, take advantage of the 1st half of July. That’s the window for troughing and above average precip, if there is one. That heat ridge looks to rebuild big time later in the month as MJO returns to the W-Hem/IO and -dAAMt commences. Duration TBD.
  10. It’s a complicated pattern, though. Clearly some degree of destructive interference there. Background La Niña circulation does seem to want to re-emerge, though. As it has consistently done since April. Question for me is how long that process will take. Could be I’ve underestimated it again.
  11. I’m already scared about late July & August. Analog pools are nasty nasty nasty.
  12. NAM often fails to sufficiently mix out low level moisture. I’ve seen some ungodly dewpoint projections out here during heatwaves.
  13. Lol. Oh it can get much worse. Especially in the humidity department.
  14. Drove through a pretty good downpour on the way home. Didn’t rain here, though. Relatively comfortable evening. Low 80s, dewpoint ~ 70. Could certainly be worse.
  15. The 12z EPS looks picture perfect up there July 4th onwards.
  16. What’s with the epidemic of divergent OP runs today? Both GFS and ECMWF look nothing like their respective ensemble means after D6. I expect some substantial corrections on tonight’s 00z runs.
  17. I’ve noticed the GFS has often been wildly divergent from its own ensemble mean (and other guidance) over the Plains and SE US in recent weeks. Usually after D5/D6. Seems to over-do cool advection over the Plains/Midwest, and builds heights excessively over the Intermountain West. I’m finding it almost useless at this point. Has led me astray multiple times.
  18. Quite a ways out but I think there’s a decent chance for some convection. Looks like there’ll be a front in the vicinity, which is how summer storms typically come about in these parts.
  19. 12z ECMWF and Control Run appear to be substantial outliers from the EPS mean. Don’t see that too often. More typical of the GFS.
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