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Phil

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Posts posted by Phil

  1. 22 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

    Sunrises are too late this time of year with DST. If they want DST they should atleast wait till early April to start it.

     

    A huge problem now is how much power it wastes, despite the fact that people use light bulbs less because of it. In the hot summer months, when it is very common for people to have air conditioning these days, the sun staying out for an hour longer in the evening will waste a LOT of electricity. Let's say you get home from work at 5, turn on the AC because it's too warm, what will save more electricity, leaving it on till around 8-9pm, or leaving it on till around 7-8pm? People don't need to have the AC on in the morning before they go to work, so although there will be 1 more hour of sun in the mornings, I do not think that uses nearly as much electricity as 1 extra hour of sun in the evening. That extra hour of AC until you can open your windows will waste a LOT of electricity.

    I probably explained this terribly but I'm sure it still makes sense.

    The sun doesn’t “stay out longer”. And people would simply run their A/C more earlier in the day. Out here we usually have to run it 24/7 so it doesn’t make a difference anyway.

    Standard time is shit and should be done away with entirely. Who the hell wants a 430AM sunrise? Or a 430pm sunset in the winter? Just stupid.

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  2. 2 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

    With a La Niña transition looking more likely, I think that Phil is starting to feel that SE ridge nipping at his toes and wants to spread the misery ;)

    Misery loves company. Maybe I’ll get lucky and score a ring of fire derecho or two before the death ridge shuts off convection for the rest of summer.

    14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

    Also see some people booked flights from Dallas to Detroit or Buffalo to travel with the eclipse.   Although that seems fraught with potential problems.  

    Me and the gf are just going to drive out to OH and catch it somewhere random. Play it by ear.

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  3. 2 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

    Eh, those models are wrong pretty often.

    Looking at past strong Nino to Nina transition summers (I know there are other factors) here at least, there is no signal for a hot summer. Second year Ninas are reliably hot.

    Niño to niña summers are always atrocious out here if descending westerly shear (transition to +QBO) is also present/ongoing (2016, 2010, 1995, 1988, 1983, etc). I expect the worst.

    The niña transitions with descending easterly shear aren’t nearly as awful by comparison, but that combo is infrequent (only satellite era examples are 2007 and 1998).

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  4. 1 hour ago, Timmy Supercell said:

    I remember looking up summer 2015 for this area and was surprised at the lack of big heat. Whereas the PNW was in hell that year.

    Huntington WV ran cool departures Jul/Aug 2015. How much of the US torched that year? 

    Funny, 2015 was among the top-10 hottest summers on record here. Trough axis was slightly too far west so we were stuck with SW flow while the Ohio Valley scored cool departures.

    It was a warm summer nationally too, thanks to the obscene warm departures in the west. The larger scale pattern should be different this summer but not necessarily an improvement. Seems likely that a fat, ugly, sprawling ridge will set up in the center of the CONUS in July and stay put through September.

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  5. 4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

    As you have seen in person... most of summer is basically smoke-free even out here.   We do better way better than places to the east across the intermountain west thanks to onshore flow.  

    I think my timing has been lucky as well. Caught a weak trough when I was there last summer.

    Also in 2018 there was apparently a major smokefest that started a few days after I left. Was absolute perfection while I was there, but the pictures my family sent me afterwards might as well have been from another planet.

  6. 1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

    I understand it’s a continual source of surprise, but our dynamics out here are a little different than on the Mid-Atlantic coastal plain.

    I thought your storm patterns involved offshore ULLs? Figured that would draw smoke in, if anything.

  7. 5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

    How did summer 2010 work out for the lower 48 as a whole? It was wonderful out here.

    Continent-wide torching. You guys were the only cool spot.

    I don’t think it’s a guarantee that will be the case this summer. But I hope I’m wrong.

    • Popcorn 1
  8. 6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

    Moisture/humidity and storms would cancel smoke season out pretty handily.

    Thunderstorms didn’t save us from it last summer. Afternoon storms would clear the air for the evening, but next morning the gunk would be back full force. Every time.

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  9. 1 minute ago, iFred said:

    Long range looked active for us, at least with a lot of moisture. If we're going to make smoke season a thing, it'd be nice to have some humidity and storms.

    I never really appreciated how you guys were suffering w/rt smoke until last summer. Major eye-opener.

    Hopefully that El Niño-forced hot/dry Canada pattern doesn’t recur this summer.

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  10. This summer is going to suck donkey balls. Fully expect it’ll be the hottest summer ever for the lower-48, and by a wide margin. Worst possible alignment of seasonal forcings.

    Good chance there won’t be any cool departures to speak of, except maybe June.

     

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  11. 5 minutes ago, Phil said:

    Close match. Of course everything is warmer today.

    Biggest difference is the Indian Ocean/Indo-Pacific region. 2010 has the more classic pre-niña signature (warm IPWP) while 2024 is sort of doing its own thing.

    And good lord, we’re in for an apocalyptic hurricane season unless those Atlantic and west-IO SSTAs change dramatically, and soon.

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  12. 3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

    I have no clue about this stuff... but here is the current SSTA map compared to the same day in 2010. 

     

    2010.png

    2024.png

    Close match. Of course everything is warmer today.

    Biggest difference is the Indian Ocean/Indo-Pacific region. 2010 has the more classic pre-niña signature (warm IPWP) while 2024 is sort of doing its own thing.

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  13. 3 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

    Hopefully this bodes well for a quick transition 

    Some of the 1950s niñas had a cool IO during their inception, but not sure about indo-pacific cooling (and the residual +IOD signature).

    IIRC, 1999 was the only modern niña with a clean +IOD signature during its developmental stages.

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  14. Just now, Phishy Wx said:

    PV gunna try to make another long extended cool spring into May.  winter may be 'over' per-se but doesn't eliminate the chance at a cool and/or wet extended spring like what was it '22? or '21.  no?

    Large scale picture somewhat resembles 2010. +AMM/-PMM and descending westerly shear under waning strong niño.

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  15. 38 minutes ago, iFred said:

    Nah. I was involved with two different forums that required some kind of donation drive or squabbling over things like adverts and memberships. The bills average ~150 a month and I can cover it without any issue, so that can rule out a lot of drama. The real reason why some of the upgrades have dragged on or why @hawkstwelve doesn't have SSH access yet is that my time seems to be feast or famine, especially with a kid, a job at FAANG Co, and a side project/startup/fever dream.

    I still have a kanban board with the following:
    - recovering deleted posts from the April 2023 forum hack
    - merging westernwx.info forum
    - cleaning up storage (unlimited storage is the largest driver of costs, thats why I don't like it when Phil uploads a 40 minutes 8k iPhone video of flurries)
    - setting up YVR/SEA/PDX High Res WRF and local Graphcast
    - write a "Looking back on 10 years" post

    I'll get to this sooner or later.

    Hardy har har. I’ve uploaded 1 video this yr and it was 15 secs.

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  16. 2 hours ago, westMJim said:

    Some weather history in southern lower Michigan

    1990: A spell of record warm weather continues across Lower Michigan with temperatures in the 70s. Lansing hits 74 degrees during a string of four straight days in the 70s.

    1993: The Superstorm of 1993 dumps three to four feet of snow across the Appalachians and draws down record-cold arctic air across Lower Michigan. High temperatures struggle to reach the lower 20s with gusty winds making it feel even colder.

     2017, a clipper brought widespread 1 to 2 inches of snow accumulation to SE Michigan. With the easterly wind off of Lake Erie, lake enhancement led to a small area of 3 to 6 inches in the Detroit Metro area. Thousands of area residents were still without power during this event due to the record March 8th wind storm a few days prior.

     1990, the overnight temperature dropped to only 59 degrees in Flint, which is the record maximum low temperature for the day. This was also the second day in a string of four days (March 12-15) that record maximum low temperatures were set.

    Across the USA

    1953,  An F4 tornado cut an 18-mile path through Haskell and Knox counties in Texas. 17 people were killed, and an eight-block area of Knox City was leveled.

    1990,Thunderstorms produced severe weather from northwest Texas to Wisconsin, Iowa, and Nebraska during the day and into the night. Severe thunderstorms spawned 59 tornadoes, including twenty-six strong or violent tornadoes, and there were about two hundred reports of large hail or damaging winds. There were forty-eight tornadoes in Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa, and some of the tornadoes in those three states were the strongest of record for so early in the season, and for so far northwest in the United States. The most powerful tornado of the day was one that tore through the central Kansas community of Hesston. The F5 tornado killed two persons, injured sixty others, and caused 22 million dollars in damage along its 67-mile path. The tornado had a lifespan of two hours. Another tornado tracked 124 miles across southeastern Nebraska, injuring eight persons and causing more than five million dollars in damage during its three-hour lifespan.

     

    Spring is always turbulent. ⛈️ This month alone I’ve had two thunderstorms, two snow squalls, and 51 consecutive hours with winds gusting between 45-60mph last Sun/Mon.

    Pattern doesn’t look like it wants to quiet down anytime soon either.

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  17. 10 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

    This is the mother of all SSW's.  This anomaly stays right on the pole for the entire run.

    1711303200-vQIOZ2HzHXw.png

    It’s the final warming. The PV goes into dormancy during the late spring/summer months every year.

    A dynamic FW is analogous to a SSW in many ways, while a static FW is more of a slow decay.

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