Phil

OTish, but fr I forgot how much trees love prolonged 50°F rain in the spring. It’s been so long since it last occurred I half-forgot it’s actually climo. Everything is erupting with green, much denser and healthier than last year when it barely rained. Hope it continues.

Interesting how the operational Euro and ~ 50% of EPS members handle next week’s MJO & RWB differently than all other guidance. Leads to an entirely different progression of the NPI and NAM. Curious to see what ultimately happens.

Glad you’re ok brother! You had me worried haha, usually you’re on here posting immediately after a big storm so I was worried you got hit by debris or something. As stated previously, I suspect you’re in for a big league severe season, orders of magnitude above the mediocrity of the last 3 years in that region (meanwhile I’m probably in for a sub-par season, for the same reason). Hope u get some good video!

Not soon enough.

You mean in January when it was 81 degrees? I’m certain you would be complaining too.

Relatively speaking, I strongly disagree. Cold air is lacking thanks to the niño base state, but the default trough position has been in the West. This is true when averaged over the last 30 days, 60 days, and 90 days. At some point the other shoe has to drop. And I highly doubt there will be much green/blue anywhere on this map as we head into summer. Torching looks like the rule for 90% of the CONUS through the remainder of 2024. Just an awful, terrible, no-good-very-bad low frequency setup this year. And I think it will get substantially worse before it gets better.

It’s more the EPS clusters came into agreement w/rt how they handle the MJO coming out of the IPWP. At least half bifurcated it into 2 separate CCKWs east of the dateline, which was suspicious given the augmented MC following the dynamic final warming. But the ridge in question could still easily end up centered offshore or inland depending on other factors manipulating the wavetrain. Multiple failure modes are present in any attempt at a +TNH pattern going forward, so it wouldn’t shock me at all if the ridge ends up lasting only a couple days before folding over.

Looks like she’s in one piece.

El Niño forcing is still healthy (augmented by MJO & ERW for the last several weeks). The fact the region hasn’t torched this spring is pure luck, brought about via fluky timing of higher frequency/subseasonal elements. What happened in January was similarly lucky. Can’t expect that to hold out forever.

It’ll last a week or so. Considering the vast majority of post-niño springs are warm in the PNW, I wouldn’t be complaining. Things could’ve been so much worse.

There are pictures of houses laying on their sides coming out of Ashland/Boyd County, which is where @Timmy Supercell lives. Hope he’s alright, last time he posted was right before it hit.

No wonder Timmy’s been knocked off the grid. Also lmao

It was an MCS. Would have to meet a lot more criteria to qualify as a derecho. But it’s the type of pattern that often produces progressive derechos. Just a bit early in the season, harder to maximize potential.

Went for another run in the r**n today. Dangerous, I know. But by the skin of my teeth, I survived.

Troughing has been the default there for the last 6 weeks but you’re acting emo over a ridge 10 days away? The same WPAC/dateline MJO that will force the ridge will also force the subsequent troughing/-PNA when it returns to the IO/E-Hem a few weeks later. It can’t be troughy 24/7/365.

ABCDEFU

It’s called the MJO.

Idk where in Ashland TimmySupercell lives but a nasty wind core passed very close to him this morning.

Looks like the wind core went through the south side of Ashland. Gusts to 92mph and 102mph at two different stations.

Hope he’s alright, haven’t seen him online since it passed thru.

Welcome to spring in the east. Moderate risk for you today!

@Timmy Supercell

The GFS is useless for cloud cover.

That’s what I said.

I’m dumber than a sack of rocks.