Niko

I think DTW metro broke a record high today. It was really warm w temps in the upper 50s and in spots, possibly hit 60F or maybe even better. Some sunshine to go along w that as well. Absolutely gorgeous day. No snow is in sight until further notice. Next week looks like lots of sunshine all week w above normal temps to even way above b4 getting back to near normal or slightly above by weeks end and into the weekend. What happened to the good ol' Decembers when it used to snow. Definitely looks like this month will be wasted. Hopefully not.

A very strong, dynamic storm to keep an eye on over the next several days for this upcoming weekend. One thing is for sure, ample amounts of moisture will be available w/ this storm and whoever is blessed to be on the cold side of this, then, look-out!! As of now, my area looks to be on the warm side, so rain is looking to be the main precip type, but again, way to early. Anything can and could change for a lot of us members on here. I'd wait till Thursday or Friday at the latest., especially as the upper level wave is expected to arrive onshore, by that time period so, better sampling would be available. Happy tracking!

Its a cold, rainy, dreary day in S MI today. Temps are in the upper 30s.

Even though I have never experienced this storm that hit Metro Detroit, it was fascinating just reading it. Sounds like it was one heck of a storm. Snow did not last too long otg though as temps torched a few days later after the blizzard and it was all a memory. For April standards, that storm was very impressive. Too bad it did not happened in the heart of winter. Hopefully, we can all see something like this this winter. https://cms9files.revize.com/rochesterhillsmi/Museum/LocalHistory/Blizzardof1886.pdf

Euro for next weekend is sweet. Buries almost the whole state of IA.

NOAA: This looks borderline and a warm-up follows it. Trough slides east for the beginning of the week putting us in the coldest of the air within it, albeit only around -5C at 850mb. So highs should fall a bit to start the week into the upper 30s. Monday will offer a brief break in precip with shortwave ridge axis sliding over, but the next shortwave diving down the backside of the trough will then slide through on Tuesday. This will be more of a clipper system with poor moisture quality. In terms of temperatures, the PV axis looks to pivot through to the northeast pulling warm air up into the region. A daytime clipper with surface temps near 40 should help produce at least a rain/snow mix for the area. Will watch thermal trends and soundings to see if anything offers a better snow signal or not.

Near average temps to slightly above for the remainder of next week. Some disturbances and@jaster220 mentioned , next Tuesday has some potential. Fingers crossed. Problem is, no cold air is around to work w. Every storm will be borderline to getting some snow or most likely rain. My area could be experiencing temps near 50F by next weekend w/ sunshine as well. Yikes. Excellent opportunity to decorate lights outside though. Anyways, January does look better, but no real arctic air in the far extension as well (above normal to near average temps) and that leads us into early Feb. Hope that changes, which I think it will down the road. The good thing is that my average gets colder and colder until late January, so even if my temps are slightly above, I can get snow outta the storm. Just hoping is not much above average because then, we are talking 40s and dare I say, 50s.

I'll be happy if my area gets near near average snowfall this upcoming winter. I will accept it and run, considering, we are in a nino mode. Time will tell.

The forecast for Friday looks very tricky for forecasters as this thing is screaming for a sneaky, surprise snowstorm for portions of S MI. My best guess is that from Detroit points northward will see some snowfall. Anything south will be a slopfest or even a cold plain rain. Again, it all depends on the movement of this. Stay tuned!

This from NOAA: Note: As of right now, it looks like my area could be in for a couple of inches of snowfall per NOAA. Attention then turns to a southern stream mid/upper level wave that will be ejecting out of the Desert southwest Thursday morning. Partial phasing between the northern and southern streams over the eastern CONUS results in this shortwave tracking northeasterly across the southern Midwest and eventually into the Ohio Valley/southern Great Lakes by early Friday morning. In advance of this system, a weak northern stream cold front tied to a shearing shortwave over northern Ontario is progged to drop into the central Great Lakes overnight Thursday. Little to no precip, at least initially, is expected along this frontal boundary given the geographic detachment from parent vorticity. This changes Friday morning with the arrival of the southern wave and subsequent better moisture quality (PW increasing to 0.5-0.75in) as well as strengthening synoptic ascent. This boundary, which looks to being residing south of I-69 if not south if M-59 by this time, provides an early focal point for enhanced forced lift offering a period of light showers in advance of the main system isentropic ascent. Said ascent then overspreads the region through the remainder of Friday morning/afternoon. General trends amongst both deterministic and ensembles has been for a more northerly track providing precip across the vast majority if not all of SE MI. Only the far northern Thumb/Saginaw Valley currently look to have any shot at missing precipitation however though chances are trending lower. Primary area of uncertainty wrt to this system remains on the thermodynamic side of things given the numerous moving parts in play. First is how far north warm air advection reaches into SE MI which is highly dependent on the track of the mid-level wave. The second factor is unfavorable diurnal timing (for snow) as the bulk of QPF is expected during the daylight hours Friday. That said with dewpoints in the lower 30s for areas north of M-59, there is the potential for evaporative cooling during the peak precip rates Friday afternoon to offset diurnal heating and support a shallow enough warm layer or a complete aob freezing column to transition to all snow. Lower ratio (solidly sub 10:1) snow would be favored in this scenario cutting down of max potential snowfall amounts. Additionally with the milder day Thursday and marginal freezing temps Friday, accumulation potentials on pavement would be further reduced likely having to rely on enhanced snowfall rates to overcome melting. Based on 12Z trends/consistency amongst the ECMWF emsemble family and deterministic as well as the NAM, areas north of M-59 looking to have the best shot at seeing accumulating snowfall Friday with areas to the south having a better chance to stay all rain or a rain-snow/melting snow mix.

You have certainly brought w/ you from Marshall that magnet here amigo.

Not bad at all......keep hope alive......6"+ for Metro Dtw!! Near 5"or so for my area.

I just luv the headline "Heavy Snow Squall Warning." Too bad my area missed out on this squall. DTW : Detroit Metro Airprt: M / M / 19 / 0.06 / 1.7 / 2

Hopefully, this changes for you guys down the road and score some of the white gold.

Hopefully, this pink shaded area extends through S MI.

Hopefully, this turns into a full blown snowstorm for ya in the coming days. Fingers crossed!

Wait till Clinton sees this. Not sure though if he is on the southern fringes of this. Heavy stuff looks just a tad north of him. Hope I am wrong.....Yo @Clinton..where r ya!!!! You have a close call here. Hope you score bigly my friend.

Yes sir...you are correct. As if Detroit was waiting for me to welcome me back...

I came back yesterday afternoon from nyc and later saw this on my phone: What a way to arrive in Detroit, Metro airport. Blizzard like conditions were reported in the city.

In NYC for the Thanksgiving holiday week. Some rain is looking likely for here tomorrow, but nothing of significance. No big nor-easters, thankfully, as well. That will change though down the road, big-time for the i-95 corridor.. Note: Models are showing that Nino is at peak levels now, and will only decline from here on. As winter arrives, it goes into a moderate nino, if not a weak nino.I think that we will get true, harsh winter conditions from mid January into mid March. That is just my thinking for now, if nino declines ,as predicted. Definitely not expected to be strong or very strong, so that is some good news.

@westMJim could be right!!! lol

I have my eyes set on middle of December.........

A balmy 58F outside currently. Enjoy it Michiganders becaause it wont last. Big change coming next week. Have to watch a potential storm (maybe a snowstorm or not) by midweek period. It gets very cold after the storm leaves. My highs are looking to be below freezing and lows in the teens.

A very busy holiday travel week is coming up and all we need is a big storm to disrupt travel. I'd say, we let this one go and have safe weather conditions for everyone traveling, whether by car or by air. Whaaa do ya say Ma Nature??!! If I were to guess, Id say S MI gets rainfall and then some real cold air behind the system w/ very strong winds and scattered snowshowers wrapping around this low. So, I just saw that my highs have a potential behind this storm to be in the 20s to maybe 30F and lows in the teens for late next week. Yikes! Thanksgiving Day looks quite cold and Black Friday looks colder.

I agree.