Tom

I'm speechless to see how the models are handling this storm and we are 24 hours out. At this point, who knows where the heaviest band of snow sets up. There is so much contradictory information out there, especially NOAA's probability forecast.

00z NAM...

00z NAM only 2 hours away...

Here is the probability forecast that Jim Cantore was eluding to. I'm still just scratching my head what they are basing their forecasts off of. Nonetheless, this would be the craziest storm all season long if this forecast comes into fruition. However, it would be a BIG win for the LRC.

Watch, by tomorrow 12z runs N IL/IA/N IN/S WI/S MI are all under WSW or WSW! Wouldn't that be the surprise of the winter!

Dominick, you may be right about the 2nd wave developing into the primary wave. Let's see what the GFS has in store. James, you were worried about suppression a few days back and look now, your in the sweet spot! That's why you can't model watch each model run and say that is what will happen. Things are turning the corner for your area and a lot of IA. Here is the 18z 4KM NAM...I wouldn't be surprised to see some heavy snow fall rates where ever the heavy snow band sets up. Looks like there will be adequate DGZ growth zone and bigger flake sizes if the wind doesn't break them apart.

From KC/N MO/C IL almost a non event now on the NAM...wtf! Those places were in the bullseye run after run after run...unreal.

3rd wave is coming in way farther south on the NAM...so for our region its going to really be the Sat/Sun period and how robust the 2nd wave can get.

18z NAM trending wetter from 12z run...going to get interesting here for Sat night period.

18z NAM with a solid 6-10" band from NE/IA/S WI...N IL with 3-6"

Yes, if warming develops it could develop blocking...late season cold.

According to the 18z NAM, it may start snowing during the 2nd or 3rd period for the Hawks game...

18z NAM looking good for NE/IA through 6:00pm Saturday.

Now that the SSW event over eastern Asia/Siberia is over, I noticed there is some warming developing in the stratosphere to the west of Greenland into N Canada. We'll see if that continues to build over the coming days.

The ridge in the west does shear apart the storm hitting Cali and that is why the storm looses so much juice. Once this energy comes onshore, it will translate into the models.

I'll start paying attention to high rez models for 00z runs tonight and see if there are any shifts. Current thinking is if the ULL can eject out faster out of the SW it can jog north, if it holds back, then the heavier snowfall will be suppressed. If forecasts hold the way there are right now, I would say 3-6" with locally more lakeside for N IL.

Skilling said 4-8" may be in the cards with LehS...I find it hard to believe the Euro is right on the 2nd wave.

Wow, 12z Euro went way south...weak with Sat night wave as well....

Trinomial, snow should start falling around 6-7:00pm tomorrow...the Hawks game will probably be seeing snow falling.

12z 4KM NAM...

The ULL will be approaching S Cali later tonight so I expect 00z runs to have better sampling...Saturday 12z runs may even have some surprises as well. Models tend to have a bias on holding energy back in the SW longer than expected which can have an impact in the overall track. Interested to see 12z Euro run today if it jogs north or south. BTW, this is almost a carbon copy of the Jan 4-5th storm.

00z Euro did come back north from it's 12z run today...baby steps I guess. Not as appreciable with snowfall for the Saturday night event though.

00z GGEM...

Lake Enhancement will be a wild card but you can clearly see that showing up on the NAM/GFS and as we get closer to the event, high rez models tend to pick it up even more. The only problem I see with that is that the lake may freeze up some more by Sat/Sun.

I must say, that the jet stream structure for this event in our region is ideal for heavy snowfall. I pay attention to this as much as storm tracks but when you have "lift" on your side, crazy things can happen.