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Tom

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Everything posted by Tom

  1. I started a thread for the 2/4 - 2/5 system...
  2. It's not often the Plains get a "Clipper" type system. Nonetheless, 00z NAM advertising some intense banding and up to 2"/hr snowfall rates in C NE. Let's discuss.
  3. Tonight's Euro Weekly Ensemble run is hands down one of the most cold/stormy runs I have seen thus far this season from the Plains to the Lakes. It all starts the following week and doesn't let go through at least the first week in March (when the model stops).
  4. These Frontogenesis snows can produce some intense banding along an arctic front. You guys could see periods of heavy snow fall.
  5. 18z WRF thru 60hr...nice hit out in the Plains with the Wed/Thu Clipper...temps in the mid/upper 20's should fluff this snow up.
  6. 18z WRF...for the Tue/Wed Clipper...what do you think guys, should I start a Thread combining this Clipper with the one Wed/Thu???
  7. Just for fun...CFSv2 setting up a nice pattern for another repeat mid March???? This storm would cycle through the LRC's 4th cycle around March 17th-20th.
  8. If you want to compare the pattern post 2015 Super Bowl Blizzard vs. 2011 GHD Blizzard, I'd say this year the pattern looks much more favorable to keep this deep snow pack around. Back in 2011, the deep snow pack melted by mid February, this year it may not melt till sometime in March! I'd say this year is a winner.
  9. Round #4 finished off the driveway, walkways and I still need to clean up the deck. It has been quite the exercise. I read that an avg 10' x 20' driveway full of snow from this system weighs a ton. Based on my simple math, I prob lifted 2.5 tons of snow over the past 2 days! The first couple shots are from inside looking out to try and give a different vantage point of what the scene looked like in the morning. The Mounds of Snow adjacent to my driveway are roughly 7-8' tall and pretty darn wide. Tried to capture the image of the sidewalks showing the depth of the snow pack all over the neighborhood. Had some really nice drifts between the house and out in back. Took a picture of my 18" ruler in the middle of my deck which has compacted down to 16".
  10. Utilizing the East Asian Theory and the LRC, the next 3-4 weeks are going to be the Winter's worst conditions IMO. The last 4 consecutive runs of the GFS continues an onslaught of cold/stormy systems targeting Japan. We are now beginning the wettest part of this year's LRC and it's no surprise the Super Bowl Blizzard delivered. Looking out over the next 10 days and beyond, several systems to be monitored over a large majority of our region. We have yet to see our friend from up north, the Polar Vortex, but signals out in East Asia suggest an invasion during the Feb 15-17th period for the U.S. Coincidentally, that is during the "heart" of this year's cold phase of the LRC. Western NE warms up the most with the lack of snow cover next Fri/Sat. E NE gets into the low 40's for a day or two. The more we can build the snow pack, the less efficient any warm ups may become.
  11. Bingo! Euro has been getting stronger/wetter each run for the Sat/Sun system...the snow pack around here now I think will start to affect the regional climate and cool the atmosphere quite a bit. There could be an active pattern setting up in our region. I think we are on the verge of a Backloaded snowfall season.
  12. Chicago peep's, wouldn't ya'll like to see this come into fruition, ay??? 12z Euro Snow depth over 30"+ by next weekend. Might be possible...this pattern is ripe for snow producers.
  13. Sounds about right. I knew there had to be more 21-22" totals somewhere nearby. Thanks for posting. Those lake bands certainly helped fluff op those totals!
  14. 12z Euro continues to build the Glacier this month with systems every 2-3 days across the Central CONUS. Next weekends system is looking more and more interesting! Feb 7-9th had been my target period about a week ago for a substantial system. Euro has been seeing it over the last couple days. Looks like a cold system with winds off the lake! 12z Euro taking baby steps in developing next weekends storm system... There will be a fight between arctic air and warmth building into the Plains late this week into next weekend until the LRC hits its stride.
  15. MJO is heading towards the "warm" Phase 6 over the next 7 days, then heading towards the colder Phase 7 thereafter. Seems like the atmosphere may be lining up towards a brutal mid month period.
  16. 12z Euro showing a couple systems traversing the Plains/Midwest/Lower Lakes with high ratios snows...
  17. With such a deep and widespread snow cover in the region, I'm worried when the LRC's cold phase hits in about a week for a good 2-3 week period, some severe cold may be in store. We didn't have this much snow around in Cycle #2 in early January, I think this round may be even colder, esp if the Blocking locks up.
  18. How long has it been since you received over a Foot??? I know you've been saying a 6"+ storm has been non existent for quite some time.
  19. 12z GFS showing 2 streaks of snow this week...NE cashing in and our friends down in KS...
  20. With the official tally at ORD of 19.3" from the Super Bowl Blizzard, the total for the season has reached 34.8"! After the Clipper Tue/Wed, ORD may reach NORMAL for the entire season and we have 2 months of winter left. Speaking of Winter, JB posted this Brazilian Meteogram for Chicago. The model is seeing temps hit 32F or higher 1 day in Feb, maybe 5 days in March! Obviously use this is a cold signal. Plenty of chances for more snow over the next couple months. It will be interesting to see how much snow ORD ends up this season....50"+???
  21. One word...BURIED!!! Received another 1" overnight from the LES. Probably ended up getting between 20-21" (est). The top layer of the snow cover has that "flaky" look to it from the LES and when I got up this morning the individual flakes had a picturess shine to it off of the sunshine. I'll never forget this storm that is for certain.
  22. Some storm reports: Looks like the 18-20" totals are def on the table. This storm has been an amazing event around these parts. I think the city is going to be buried, esp the side streets. Living in the city is almost impossible during these type of storms. Hopefully Streets and Sanitation can do a good job and clear up the side streets overnight. It's been snowing heavily over the past couple hours from these Lake bands.
  23. Winds coming down the full fetch of the lake right now... http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-90.76,40.66,3000
  24. Seems like when the lake bands swing through NE IL they intensify over Cook/DuPage/Will counties...I'll take it.
  25. DuPage county doing really well with these Lake Effect bands. I'm sitting underneath another one right now.
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