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Tom

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Everything posted by Tom

  1. You will probably hit the upper 20's the following week. A significant cool down is in the cards following next weekend. Already 00z GFS showing highs in low 50's Sat, highs in upper 40's Sun and possible a string of 40's. Very chilly looking long range in the eastern CONUS.
  2. Here is a better look at the GFS progression...very evident using the 500mb charts, it may even get deeper as we get closer. BTW, 18z GFS still agreeing with a huge eastern trough in the longer range. IMO, GFS is going to win this battle given the pattern setting up.
  3. I'm going to show you the usual, GFS feedback problem of skirting a trough and/or storm out to fast to the east. I'm posting the last 4 runs for next Saturday 21z and you can see how the model is forecasting a deeper trough, farther west with each run. Something the Euro is also doing and this is exactly what was happening last year as well. Having said that, expect the models in the longer term correct the cold/trough farther west in our region (esp the Euro IMO).
  4. Just like last year at about this time, the Brazilian Meteograms were showing a very cold signal for our region. After reading JB's post on Wx Bell just now, he posted this picture: Basically, he mentions that from Dec-Mar the temp barely reaches 32F a couple times the entire winter and there are plenty of snow chances. Some big whoppers showing up in January. Another repeat in the making??? Maybe this is the year Chicago sets a new All-Time snow record. Nonetheless, some serious cold signals showing up in a range of long term models.
  5. CFS keeping it stormy and cold from the Plains to the Lakes as we head into the first parts of November. By mid month, its looks like winter wants to settle in. The last map is the Sunday before Thanksgiving week. Check out all that brutal cold building in Canada under what is expected to be a nice snow pack by then. Day time highs across the country look much below normal in November, especially the mid section of the nation. I think this will be the epicenter of our winter season. This run it had parts of the central U.S. from N MO on north 32F or colder for day time highs for a 7 day period (11/12-11/19). Pretty far fetched, but a serious cold signal no doubt.
  6. The battle in the long range between GFS vs Euro after next weekend. Euro ensembles keep pointing at bringing a massive ridge into all of Canada, the Upper Midwest, Plains and Midwest after the 22nd towards the end of the month. Very skeptical to see such warmth building in where there is already a snow cover in parts of Canada where the model is seeing warmth. The Euro has been having a warm bias this season, it also didn't see the trough coming in next weekend in the long range and now it is seeing it for Sat/Sun. It would be laughable if the GFS won this case study AGAIN! I'll post some of the maps. My feeling is the model corrects the warmth west, expands the eastern trough as the Typhoon energy digs a west based GOA low which will create a deeper eastern trough.
  7. Nice short read from Gary Lezak on the developing system on Monday... http://www.weather2020.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/18.jpg The map above shows the 500 mb flow forecast on Sunday evening. Energy will be diving in, and this pattern is so very different from last year. We had systems dive in, but they wouldn’t mature into storm systems right over Missouri like this one is likely going to do. This will very likely be one of the exhibits for our winter forecast that we will issue in a few weeks. http://www.weather2020.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/23.jpg More Pan Handle Hooks and GL Cutters???? I like the sound of that!
  8. Impressive rain totals on the 12z Euro...this SLP gets cut off and spins in the Midwest.
  9. Come to think of it, the Hudson Bay Low's that have been popping up this month could be the common feature we see this winter. Might be the sign of the PV displacing itself in that region. Something to watch for sure.
  10. Torch, what Torch??? The GFS over the past several runs is now beginning to point towards the evolution of a colder pattern towards next weekend into the following week. Another Hudson Bay Low looks to develop with a Blocking pattern developing near Greenland, this would be the 2nd in a matter of 3 weeks. This has become a common theme this October and for the new LRC pattern. I believe we will be seeing a lot of these Hudson Bay low's this winter season.
  11. It was a frosty morning and most suburbs were reporting heavy frost around these parts. How cold did it get out in IA or WI this morning???
  12. Tonights cold is a classic example of the source region of where this cold came from. Models weren't to robust a few days ago, but then honed in on a colder look. Something I believe will happen again later next weekend into early the following week.
  13. Yup, Euro under did the cold the last time as well, esp last night around here.
  14. And you were complaining about the doughnut hole a couple days ago...patience my friend! 2 for 2 with phased systems this October so far....in our region that is.
  15. Might have some Frost Advisories posted tonight in N IL and even Freeze Warnings in IA...
  16. Incredible expansive snow cover is being forecasted by mid October in Siberia!
  17. When I posted that Jetstream structure on the Euro a few days ago, I knew this system had potential to become a vigorous one. Looks like a windy and wet storm on tap for Monday. 12z GFS deepening to a 992mb SLP.
  18. Not only that, but the remnants of Simon impacting the southern Plains from NE/MO/S IL is something they haven't seen much of last year. This could be a prolific snow producer in the winter time. The LRC seems to be covering a lot of real estate with precip this year which will be very impactful for a lot of this nation.
  19. With a -NAO/AO shaping up towards mid month, I highly doubt we will see any above normal temps. 00z Euro maybe had 1 or 2 days near normal, the rest were below.
  20. 00z GFS strengthens the Mon/Tue system with some heavy rains into IA/WI.... Edit: This storms deepens into a 994mb SLP into N MI
  21. It still is, but this is just one day and shows the cold building up mid month. I didn't post the cold days to open the month and mid month.
  22. @ Scott....Go Hawks!!!! Lets bring Lord Stanley back to Chicago! I'm sure your watching the season opener right now. Good luck in school and lets hope for another blockbuster winter!
  23. Here is a map on the CFS showing the cold right where we see that snow cover building....nature laying out the building blocks
  24. Ya, I believe so...hopefully many more to come. I'm watching out for the next storm correlated with the Typhoon. That one should be interesting.
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