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Black Hole

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Everything posted by Black Hole

  1. I've only seen one severe storm since moving here a year and a half ago. It's been pretty dead. At least that one severe storm was a high end derecho lol But I want some big hail.
  2. Ended up at 0.89" of rain yesterday and early this morning. Just a few rumbles of thunder and it was spread out over several hours so it was a beneficial rain. March has mostly been boring and dry so its good to see it. Wish I could join in on the snow fun but snow season is officially over down here.
  3. As far as severe weather goes, it looks like our next chance of some action will be in early April. Might get a few showers Wed-Thurs but mostly quiet weather otherwise until next Sun-Mon.
  4. EPS cloud cover plot showing somewhere in the neighborhood of a 40-50% chance of clouds (day 15 still) with a slight signal for a system to move through the day before. Obviously way too early to know, but that is where things stand now down this way.
  5. Glad I won the first round without even knowing I was playing
  6. CSU outlook is similar to the SPC showing a severe risk for this part of the country Sunday to Monday. I do think there may be a bit of a minima here with more dry line convection west of here on Sunday and then a reinvigoration Monday SE of here. It'll be interesting to see though.
  7. The la nina summers of 2011 and 2012 were both brutal here with 44 and 38 days above 100 respectfully and multiple 110+ days as well. Awful. Certainly some parallels to 2012 and this year.
  8. Obviously its true for the PNW, but I think the midwest is also more susceptible to arctic blasts during la nina than el nino.
  9. Forecast soundings look loaded tomorrow with a long straight hodograph, but low LFC/LCL and very high CAPE. This should produce splitting supercells with very large hail, but also a decent wind threat. I added a couple of forecast reflectivity images showing the supercell potential in the early afternoon and then potentially convection firing along the dry line later in the day. Certainly will have multiple chances to see something.
  10. SPC and CSU ML forecast for tomorrow. I suspect the SPC may go moderate on account of the very high hail risk. I'm right on the edge of that.
  11. CSU ML probs for the next two days. Tomorrow is one of those "well its probably not going to happen but if it does look out" type days. Accordingly, I'll assume nothing but keep an eye out. Probably a lot better risk in northwest KS and west-central MO for some action. For the day 2 outlook it looks like I miss again as the best dynamics have moved east. Soundings look pretty good in southeast OK and northwest AR so I do expect some severe activity at that time.
  12. It's probably too late for snow down here, but maybe up north? Either way, this is a cold pattern that looks to be setting up to close out March.
  13. Maybe we should get a thread going for ENSO this year. Ocean analysis shows we are already seeing colder water upwell to the surface. Model forecasts show a solid signal for a moderate to strong la nina, centered in the central Pacific. I would expect these to change some after we get through spring.
  14. 1.05" at my place for this storm cycle. That was pretty much right on target for expectations. We've got another warm up with some off and on storm chances starting late Tuesday. Definitely some signal in the extended for some pretty chilly air to spill south but snow is probably not going to occur given how late in the season it is.
  15. I'd be surprised if we had any severe weather up here, but a good soaking does look likely with at least a half inch of rain, and potentially over an inch if we can get some thunderstorms.
  16. You could have some other scattered rain chances, but I think you and I both get rain Thursday and or Friday.
  17. What you said here is definitely true, storms out there seem to have a much bigger footprint and mesoscale processes don't seem to be quite as important. Most of the west is higher elevation and more of the precipitation pattern is governed by where you are relative to the terrain and what direction the wind is blowing. It's taken some getting used to since I moved out here since every storm is very track dependent.
  18. Here is the EPS for week 1 (top) and week 2 (bottom). The first week of the month looks like more of the same for the south-central US with warm and mostly dry conditions. Things will change pretty dramatically (if the forecast holds) for week two with the trough settling over the area bringing somewhat below normal temps and near to above normal precip. I suspect areas close to the Rockies may get a few snow chances here, and that may extend northeast into portions of the upper midwest.
  19. For my house February ended up with 1.48" of rain. The max for the month was 85F and the minimum was 19F. I had one day with a high below 40F. Overall a boring but mild month. The only "winter weather" was yesterday evening when it was sleeting Officially it was the 3rd warmest Feb on record at the Tulsa airport. Certainly not typical for an El Nino but this whole winter was strange.
  20. It was 84F here in Tulsa today. Tomorrow could be anywhere from about 85-90F depending on cloud cover. Then...it'll be near freezing 12 hours later!
  21. Here are some maps for the setup next Sunday. Obviously a lot is going to change in a week, but if the general idea were correct we'd probably get some warm sector storms followed by a squall. It's got everything you'd want to see, so I'll be watching it closely.
  22. Yeah, the HRRR does overmix sometimes so it'll be interesting to see. It's got 88F here tomorrow but I'd be surprised if we got that warm. 85F seems reasonable though.
  23. Fire Weather Watch here for Tuesday. The worst will be to my west though.
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