Money

That's only through the 1st wave pretty sure which is practically the same as the 0z GFS.

Tom, any word on 0z ECMWF?

This is for the wave/storm in the HR 90-102 range. I figured we are close enough to the time period for a thread. We could make a new one for the later time period (3/2 to 3/4) if the model runs hold.

Yeah, tbh it's not far off from the GFS through HR 144. GFS had .6 to -.7 QPF. GGEM at HR 144 has .5 to .6 or so. And with good ratios that should still be a very nice snowfall.

.4 qpf with very good ratios. Not a bad start.

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_132.jpg 10 mm is about .4 qpf or more.

When I said the GGEM was suppressed? Yeah, I was wrong on that. Looks like a good hit looking at the colored maps.

Hey Tom, could you post the GGEM maps when they are up? Thanks.

12z GGEM HR 108: http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/235_100.gif 00z GGEM HR 96 http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/134_100.gif You can clearly see what the trend is as we get closer. Look at the difference in the HP.

GGEM with .60 QPF in IA for the wave on the 28th as 16 mm= 0.62 qpf or so. That would be 8+ with ratios. http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/134_100.gif

GGEM is still suppressed though. Although it trended north on the wave for the 28th with a nice hit for IA.

Talk about spread the wealth. NE: 6-12 GB: 6+ MKE: 14-16 ORD 14-16 DBQ: 18-20 LSE: 10-14 OSH: 10-14 DTW: 8-10 etc

18-20 for DBQ and still snowing at HR 162 lol

12-14 for most of IA this run through hr 138. 8 for Chicago. 6-8 for MKE and west into all of S/W WI

6-8+ from IA into Chicago and north into central WI through hr 126.

Yeah, we know, but it's the general trend. Weaker HP, farther north trend.

Gonna be a nice run for all of us again by the look of it at hr 108

Yup. And precip is breaking out a lot more and north from 18z out in the west.

GFS continuing the trend of a farther north wave on the 28th.

Yup. GFS up and running. Just hoping to see a continued look as the 18z gfs.

I don't mind people who want warmer weather but like every post is talking about how things are going to trend warmer etc all based on what he wants and not what the models are showing.

18z GFS ensembles are a mix bag as one would expect 150+ hours out. Out of the 12 members: 4 have 1.00+ QPF for Chicago. 4 have .1-.25 QPF for Chicago. 4 have .25-.5 QPF for Chicago. This is a big increase over the 6z and 12z GFS ensembles though.

12+ for Chicago by HR 189. Big thing is we need to get that system to phase and lift farther north. The one for the Feb 28th timeframe. If we can get that and delay the high coming in a bit it could allow the next system to follow the same type of path. 18z GFS shows just that. We'll see if the 0z can continue the trend or if its just a blip in the 18z run.

Yup. 18z GFS showing less suppression this time around. Maybe it can move a tad north just a bit to help us out? 18-24 for W/C IA. 6-8 up towards DBQ towards Chicago (with 12+ not far off) and then 2-4 for most of C/S. WI. Just need a tad less suppression and a bit more phasing to help us out. 100+ hours out yet.

Iowa gets pounded this run on the GFS. 12+ through HR 138. 16-18+ through HR 159 and still snowing lol