Brian_in_Leavenworth

How are 2nd year Nina's different, especially in late Fall/ early Winter, considering that in the 2nd year, I assume the atmosphere is already starting in a Nina regime, as opposed to being in transition during the same time in a first year Nina, especially considering a first year Nina is often coming off of a Nino regime?

Yeah we had snow starting Dec 21st. Never forget that day. Had a Christmas party with friends, and helped set it up. Was hoping we would leave the party to snow falling, and that is exactly what happened. Had snow again several times, and then had a huge dump late in the month. Pineapple express met the cold air. Had several feet of snow when it was done. Got my picture in the Bellingham Herald looking at my car after the snow collapsed the car port. Areas south got their first snow on the 26th. Victoria, one of the least snowiest places in Canada, had 26 inches with the last stor

Here are a few guides. Really understanding models is not a simple topic, but hopefully these help https://www.weather.gov/source/zhu/ZHU_Training_Page/Miscellaneous/chart_comparison/chart_comparison.htm#500 https://wxornotbg.com/2016/12/20/understanding-weather-models/ https://opensnow.com/news/post/weather-forecast-models-explained http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/students/courselinks/fall12/atmo336/lectures/sec1/info500mb_2ndpass.html

Perhaps this has been posted before, but worth posting again NWS Seattle @NWSSeattle Alright everyone! Once again we are requesting something from you. We will be going through some changing precipitation types today. It would be great if you could tell us when this happens at your location and what type it is! Just remember to take your observations safely!#wawx

12 to 14 at Deception Pass? WOW. I grew up there, on Fidalgo Island (Dewey Beach area), just a couple of miles from the bridge. That is a tremendous amount of snow for that area. I don't know if I ever saw that much snow in one storm all the years that I lived there, but of course I wasn't measuring snow back then.

Agree 100%. Even though I average a lot of snow here, we actually had less snow than just about everyone on this board. Which makes sense, as just about everyone averages more precip than I do, so when there is snow there, often you get more than I do. And I am 100% o.k. with that. In fact, I enjoyed seeing everyone else get a lot of snow way more than the nice little snow than we had here. Its all of your turns to get ❄. Hoping you get more.

EPS is not bad either.

Way better than the 10:1 maps, at least in areas where the temperature is below 30. NWS is using an 18:1 ratio for our snow predictions, which is almost twice the 10:1 ratio. But the kuchera maps are probably overdoing it, especially west side.

Should be a great powder day.

Sunday should be a much better day to drive, being in between storms. Once in awhile they close the pass for avalanche control, but usually late at night when traffic is slow. Stevens will get a lot of snow overnight and early tomorrow, but nothing out of the ordinary. Guessing it will still be compact snow by Sunday, so having proper tires/chains is strongly advised. They could also take Snoqualmie Pass and Blewett Pass if those roads look better. Worth checking on. Whenever anyone from here goes to Seattle, we almost always take Blewett/Snoqualmie instead of Steven's, a bit f

We are way colder than you are and we are having 18:1 ratios at most, according to the NWS. My highs have been in the teens this week.

Not a bust unless there was an actual forecast, as opposed to a bunch of colors on a model.

We get a lot of Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Watches/Warnings. So they won't issue a warning until 24 hours or less before the event. A warning means severe weather is happening or is imminent, hence the 24 hour rule. Also, before 24 hours things can and do change. They also have to be careful when you have back to back storms. They don't want confusion when doing that. One storm at a time. When 2 storms are close, you might have an advisory for the first storm and then they might skip the watch and go into the warning for the next storm. So don't expect a wa