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Brian_in_Leavenworth

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Everything posted by Brian_in_Leavenworth

  1. You still think real arctic air will make an appearance in the Northwest?
  2. Those point and click forecasts are not man made. Not that it is inaccurate, but sometimes they have some weird forecasts. Like "snow between 10PM and 1AM, snow level 1,100 feet. Snow mixed with rain between 1AM and 4AM, snow level at 1400 feet, Snow between 4Am and 7AM, snow level 900 feet, rain between 7AM and 10AM, snow level rising to 1300 feet". You know that is a computer talking, not a person. In marginal situations, best to read the AFD's, any special weather statements, and the zone area forecast discussion. Where I live, the point and click forecast is often so far wrong it is
  3. Decent improvement with the EPS in the 5-10 day range. A bit colder, deeper trough, and slower to go west of us.
  4. I wonder what a 2nd year nina or cool neutral after a Nina would bring? Considering we won't be coming off a Nino, maybe it will be different next fall and early winter. But like you said, still a lot of winter left this year.
  5. Not that I trust the CFS ENSO forecast in January, and in a month it might show the opposite, but it looks like it agrees with you.
  6. Guessing the CFS is at a low resolution at hour 1. GFS BTW is at a higher resolution through hour 240.
  7. I think it is pretty normal for it to return to neutral, even in the middle of a multi year Nina.
  8. Speaking of the weeklies . . . First 15 days are the same as last nights. And keep in mind, the weeklies version that I get are the 5 day average anomaly ending on the day of the graphic.
  9. I clicked on it, a popup appeared, then I clicked on the left arrow, and that restated the gif and it worked then.
  10. I like weathermodels.com. Has the weeklies, full ECMWF, full EPS, etc. Graphics not as good as WB, but a lot cheaper.
  11. Way more complicated than that. There is also the problem of paint. They need to constantly repaint the weather stations (but they don't), and that leads to artificial warming). Has been a big problem. Most likely the rural weather stations are also not being repainted often enough. Comparative analysis of the influence of solar radiation screen ageing on temperature measurements by means of weather stations - Lopardo - 2014 - International Journal of Climatology - Wiley Online Library And there is time of day adjustments in the past, etc. Really hard to get a good feel of what is ha
  12. Pivotalweather.com has ECMWF precip maps. Have to go under ECMWF high resolution maps.
  13. Ok, the one that weakens the ridge a bit. I see the difference now. When I read cut off low, I think of the ones that drift down to CA.
  14. Talking about the cut off low near California? Was there last night too hour 120.
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