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Brian_in_Leavenworth

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Everything posted by Brian_in_Leavenworth

  1. Why would anyone use weather spark? According to that, I only get snow for a short 6 week period, and only about 40 inches per year. Same thing with Aspen, Colorado. I'm guessing a computer does this and calculates incorrectly or uses airports far away to get their numbers.
  2. Interesting article about the Euro. And some changes for later this year. "On August 1st, 1979, the first operational Deterministic forecasts from the European Center for Medium range Weather Forecast (referred to ECMWF hereinafter) were released at low spatial resolution (210 km) using Spectral Transforms out to 120 hours (5 days) with further upgrades to 168 hours (Seven days) on August 1st, 1980. [1] Ensemble forecasts were first created on November 24th, 1992 at 210 km horizontal resolution with 32+1 members 3x a day while the deterministic model was 200km, this difference in resolution gave the deterministic its name, HRES. Incremental horizontal resolution increases have occured since 1992 with 41r2 in 2016 featuring the last horizontal resolution increase to the HRES and a new grid (Octahedral Gaussian, 16 km-->9 km HRES, 36 km--> 18 km ENS). Improvements to many surface, upper level variables including track & intensity of hurricanes were noted. [2] In 2021 brought 2 upgrades to the IFS model with one in particular was 47r2 which brought Single Precision (32 bits) from Double Precision (64 bit) to the IFS HRES & ENS, this helped reduce computational cost to increase the vertical layers in ENS to 137L to match the HRES. [3] In October 18th, 2022, a major supercomputer upgrade took place from the Cray XC40 cluster to the ATOS BullSequana XH2000 in Bologna, Italy. This has allowed ECMWF to introduce another significant step in unifying the ENS with HRES by introducing 48r1. With this upgrade came the increase in horizontal resolution to the ENS from 18 km to 9km. This is now in sync with the HRES and makes the ENS control meteorologically identical to HRES with the only changes being HRES runs before ENS control and that ENS Control goes out to 15 days to match the 50 Perturbed ECMWF EPS members. Significant improvements to track & intensity of hurricanes/typhoons were well noted as well as many surface, upper level. The analysis of HRES/ENS are exactly the same with differences in model outputs appearing with increased lead time. [4] The former twice a week ECMWF-Ext ENS changed to once daily with 101 members starting from day 0 instead of 15 which was an extension of the medium range forecast..the reforecast were also separated to be consistent. [5] Plans For the Future? In 49r1 (set to be implemented in October 2024) will still feature 2 separate deterministic systems 'HRES' 'ENS control' but the HRES will be extended from 10 days-->15 days and still come out earlier than ENS. [6] In 50r1 (set to be implemented in June 2025) the 'ENS control' will be retired while the 'HRES' will be renamed to 'ENS control' but still come out earlier than the ENS 50 perturbed members. This will remain at least until 51r1. [6]"
  3. But it's not that warm. We are below normal here and many places had snow. It's melted of course, so it's not extremely cold. Spokane had heavy snow squalls yesterday evening. Overall temps 6-9 degrees below normal. And more chances for snow next week Soon we will get to the point where our average temps will end up being similar to Western Washington and then later in Spring they'll average higher until Autumn.
  4. Yet there was still snow in a lot of places last evening and overnight. Many places had a winter weather advisory. Big snow squalls in the far east part of the state.
  5. It's a gamble to make a move somewhere that you really want to live. It was for us when we moved here almost 11 years ago. My wife is a RN with a lot of experience so it was easier for her to get a job, though we knew it would pay less than in Bellingham. And my job was in a unique company, so I would have to find something completely different. Took awhile, but we're glad we did. But waiting is also a gamble. Especially as we get older, if we wait too long, we may not be able to really enjoy where we end up at. Or the economy could completely tank and moving becomes harder. Lots of things could go wrong and you end up wishing you had done it sooner
  6. Are you maybe a bit higher than the main Sun River area? I was under the impression that it averages about 60 inches a year. Several websites say that. But, like many areas, there are surrounding areas that can get a lot more. Maybe youre a bit closer to Mt Bachelor and you get more snow than the main Sun River area. I remember years ago my parents stayed there and really liked it. Sounds like a great place
  7. Didn't know that! I'll have to look up more about your areas, sounds interesting.
  8. Nope, I've had it between 75 and 80. But my area averages 94 inches, so it's usually unfair to compare Leavenworth to other areas.
  9. Definitely more snow than Cashmere. Probably cheaper to live there too compared to town. And the Wenatchee River runs right through that area. Also close access to highway 97, which goes to Blewett Pass and then you can access I-90.
  10. It's interesting all the hills and canyons in that area. My wife is a hospice nurse, and sometimes visits patients with a Cashmere address, them finds out it's way out of town on some winding road through a canyon. It's a very walkable town. People I've known love to walk to the Sure to Rise Bakery downtown. And if course Applets and Cotlets is downtown and CrunchPak. There's a good museum there with cabins from the old days and the main museum. You'll also find all the scarecrows during October that are dressed up as different characters. It's also interesting to me how the vegetation is different there then here in Leavenworth, since there's a decent precipitation gradiant. Wenatchee is pretty close for all the shopping (Costco and other box stores are in East Wenatchee but there is good shopping in Wenatchee as well). And Leavenworth is 15-20 minutes away too. Hope it works out for you.
  11. 5 inches overnight here. So far for the winter we have between 75 and 80 inches.
  12. https://hdontap.com/index.php/video/stream/downtown-truckee-california
  13. Every day between 75 and 82? I'll buy into that. Over here more likely 80-87, but that would be just about perfect.
  14. Getting yet more snow in Leavenworth. Only a couple of inches, but it's been impressive how long the cold air has hung around. Classic cold air damming. This will put us at about 73" for the winter. Only about 21" to go to reach normal for the winter season. Not bad for a Nino.
  15. They were interns for the NTSB and they tweeted those names out. No surprise that was their last day on the job. What else did they think would happen? So stupid and like you said in very poor taste.
  16. Just a couple of inches. But we are not expecting freezing rain.
  17. It cuts Leavenworth in half pretty much. The 36-48 and the 48-72 line runs right through town. Actually not a bad map. The accumulated snowfall here this winter is approximately 55-60 inches so far.
  18. It was always less than what was forecasted, which is usually the opposite. The one yesterday went through Thursday and includes snow that will fall tomorrow afternoon and evening. But this event was modeled to be about 6-7 inches. NWS had us about 10.
  19. I lived in Bellingham. Snow started on the 21st, so this was a relatively long event. Skagit and North has a white Christmas. I think Victoria, of all places, set a one day snowfall record for Canada, at least for cities. Someone could win some money on Canadian bars with that trivia. Victoria probably the laF big Canadian city anyone would expect to set that record Anyone Canadian correct me if I'm wrong.
  20. Got about 6 inches. A bit less than forecast. Another case where the 1.33K UW MRF model got it right. Another 6-9 or more forecasted for Thursday afternoon and night.
  21. You're right. Actually would be better if it was snow then freezing rain. I have seen that where I live. Had a decent amount of freezing rain around Christmas last year, but it fell on snow and wasn't a big deal. But having ice under the snow isn't good at all.
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